Fast, mobile guys give AA fits, and we are talking about guys like Elvin Ayala. This is one where Abraham has almost zero chance. It's simply stunning to see how over rated AA is on ESB. Lucian would school Abraham for 12 rounds; 118-110, or stop him after 10.
I'm not really sold on Bute's chin, so I'd take AA by TKO, probably late. Abraham has a good chin AND a great defense, so I doubt Lucian will KO/TKO him. I can see a boring decision win for Bute if he runs all day, but even then, it would be a close decision.
You think AA is still the same as against Ayala? He improved quite a bit, especially against boxer-types. People always go on about AA getting outboxed against some one who is fast and mobile. On first glance, they may be right but they are overlooking a few things. Firstly, AA´s defence. It´s very hard to land on him. And you need to if you want to score points. Additionally, if you punch at him you are at his range and will be hit back. Look at his last fights with movers, when they got hit the first few times by AA they got all very weary of his power, they committed less to their punches and threw less. Bute´s workrate isn´t that impressive and he tends to tire down the stretch when he has to work alot. Abraham on the other hand grows stronger as the fight goes on. Then you have all those holes in Bute´s defence. Did you see how much Andrade did land on him in those four rounds? Can you imagine how Bute would have looked if AA would have been the one landing those punches? Bute´s chin is average at his best, he has many hols in his defence and tires down the stretch. That plays everything right into AA´s style. Bute may be able to outbox him on his best and AA´s worst day. But any other day I think AA beats him.
Abraham fights to the potential of his opponents, in his biggest fights, his always performed the best.
Finally someone who doesn't underrate Abraham because of things he doesn't do. Yeahm he has a low workrate, doesn't move a lot....and needs neither. Abraham has unusual body mechanics, long forearms to short upper body, so he covers his head and body with his guard. Taylor was supposed to outbox him and only be at risk of losing by KO, but Abraham took over the fight in round 4. Abraham is extremely confident in the ring and there is always a sense that he could step it up. Taylor was beaten before, but never with doing as little as Abraham did. Miranda was knocked out by Pavlik before in constant give and take battle, but Abraham took care of Miranda in the rematch with just a few explosive attacks. If he ever gets seriously challenged, he will bring out more than what we have sen so far.
Don't even try to knock sense in Booradley's head, sense abandoned him the same time balls abandoned Kelly Pavlik - when AA called out KP to knock him out in Homestown.
Bute looked good, but speedwise not in the league of Ward or Dirrell. He capitalized excellently on the shortcomings of Andrades crude approach at just "walking him down" with no defense at all, walking straight into like 20 big shots from Bute before he took the KDs. But Andrade is the definition of crude and gets hit unnumerous times each round from big punches, Abraham is a safety first counterpuncher who almost NEVER walks into anything big or gives away too many openings without setting that up. Taylor is a capable technician, and he countered Abraham about 3, 4 times in 12 rounds. Bottom line, Bute made a statement beating Andrade convincingly, and is now at the top of the SMWs - TOGETHER with Abraham and Ward. Without them fighting and showing EXACTLY who beats whom, there is no way to "predict" what happens. Other than that Abraham loses the first 4 rounds, which he does in every fight against literally anyone. Ward isn't Andrade, and Abraham isn't Andrade too. The only guy in the SuperSix similar to Andrade is Froch.
I woulda picked Bute even before last night. AA is the one who's a little overrated. While its true that AA is alot better than Andrade, at the same time Bute is a FAR better technian than Jermain Taylor.
He is a lot better than Andrade, but he doesn't put as much pressure, and doesn't move a lot. Best way for Bute to let his hands go