Lucian Bute vs. Jermain Taylor ~ Analysis Thread

SO...who wins?:hey

 

I see we're all quite weary of coming down off the fence where this fight is concerned. Let me get the ball rolling. I think the following factors would prove telling in this fight:

1. Taylor has an excellent jab, which he uses to great effect. It is to be expected that he would enforce his jab early on and build combinations on the back of it.
2. Taylor is a fast, aggressive starter; Bute is a slow, hesitant starter. Bute likes to figure out an opponent before letting his hands go. Taylor would be the more active and effective fighter, early on.
3. Bute gets caught with right hands and with left hooks. Taylor has a very good right hand and left hook.
4. Bute is better at controlling the range and pace of the fight than Taylor. After the initial couple of rounds, Bute would find the best range and pace to keep the fight on the outside, just out of range of Taylor's jab. He would faint with his jab and strike with his straight left down the pipe, getting Taylor's attention.
5. Taylor is an experienced operator who will adjust. Taylor would start to fight on the backfoot, snapping his jab, and come inside with overhand rights.
6. Taylor has a better and more effective inside game than Bute. Despite his range advantage, Taylor would be most effective inside. His most effective punches are short. He would throw big punches on the inside, looking to hurt Bute.
7. Bute's chin is better than Taylor's. Bute would get tagged on the inside by Taylor but his chin is good enough to sustain Taylor's power shots.
8. Bute has a power advantage over Taylor but this power advantage wouldn't give him much of an edge on the inside, because Bute isn't an inside fighter. However, Bute's bodypunching would be effective, on the inside. It would slow Taylor down and make him less aggressive.
9. Bute has more effective footwork. Bute is getting better and better and using his footwork to help his defence, by moving laterally. Taylor's offense is most effective against a fighter who fights in straight lines or who backs up under pressure. Bute doesn't like pressure but he has learnt not to back up as much. On the other hand, Taylor always backs up in straight lines when under pressure. A fighter with a very good straight left like Bute would take advantage of that, pushing Taylor into the ropes, throwing good, hard combinations. He wouldn't fear Taylor's power in these situations either.
10. Bute is a good counterpuncher. He could let Taylor attack only to counterpunch him effectively from range whilst planning his fast, effective attacks.
11. Bute gets stronger as the fight goes on; Taylor doesn't. Bute is slightly tougher and stronger than Taylor.
12. Bute's will to win is greater. He would dig in deeper to win than Taylor.
13. Stamina wouldn't play a role in this fight. Bute enforces a slower pace so Taylor wouldn't suffer from any lack of stamina.
14. Defence wouldn't play much of a role. Taylor would tag Bute and Bute would tag Taylor.
15. Taylor's range advantage wouldn't play a role in this fight. Bute would control the range of the fight after the first couple of rounds; Taylor prefers to throw shorter (arm) punches anyway.

Factors 1-3 lead me to expect that Taylor would establish an early lead, winning the first 2-3 rounds. Bute would start to get the measure of Taylor, though, and start controlling the distance and pace of the fight. The middle rounds would be very contested and close (factors 5-8 ). In the last third of the fight, I expect Bute to get stronger and stronger and use his power and combinations more, pushing Taylor backwards and hurting him (factors 9-12). Factors 13-15 are not relevant in this fight, in my view.

In conclusion, I think Bute would come back in the mid rounds and land the more effective punches. I expect him to get stronger and stronger as the fight goes on. In the late rounds, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bute stopping Taylor. My prediction is as follows:

Chances:

• Bute close decision - 40%
• Taylor close decision - 35%
• Bute T/KO - 15%
• Taylor wide decision - 5%
• Bute wide decision - 5%

I'm going with Bute by close decision in a very entertaining and contested fight, in which the balance of power constantly ebbs from one fighter to another. It is certainly one of the best fights that can be made in the 168 lbs division.