Ok...here's my stab at it... For me, these are the important questions: Does each have the boxing skills to compete with the other in a boxing match? YES Does one of them have a significant advantage in speed, power, chin, strength, toughness, stamina, etc. to make him the clear favourite? NO So...the fight will be competitive and will most likely go to the cards. Can Taylor win this fight on the inside? YES Will Taylor have the opportunity to fight at the range and pace that suits him? NO Who has the advantage on the outside? BUTE Is Bute capable of keeping the fight on the outside, controlling the pace and range, to suit himself? WELL...to a significantly larger extent than Taylor...that's for sure. If Taylor takes chances looking to apply pressure, does Bute have the chin and power to keep him at bay? YES, to a large extent. If Bute is forced to press Taylor to try and hurt him, does he have the speed, power and footwork to take him in a corner and hurt him, given Taylor's chin and power? To a large extent, YES. Taylor's high guard defence is not effective enough. He doesn't move his head enough...he is open to the body a lot of the time...once he gets hit, he hesitates a bit and becomes reactive/passive. ...I expect Taylor to win the early rounds, before Bute takes over. I think Bute's the slight favourite in this competitive, close fight. Am I confident in my pick? Not very confident...bring it on!:good
Pressure isn't Taylor's forte, and you're right that Bute outboxes him with any separation. Pretty clear cut wide UD for Lucian; possibly a stoppage depending on where his level of confidence is after the Librado affair.
I think Bute is a bad match up for Taylor. Jermaine is fast, but not faster than Bute. His power at 168 is not impressive. He has a good jab, but against a southpaw, the jab is more difficult to install. Andrade has shown how you can beat Bute, even if he was not able to finish the job. But Taylor does not put a lot of pressure, so Bute would be comfortable against him. The weakest point of Taylor is his reaction when he gets hit. It's not good. And Bute will connect for sure. on the other side, I don't think Taylor can make it difficult for Bute. He's not big, and Bute's stamina is much more better than Taylor's. The only time Bute had stamina problems was against Andrade, who is a special man in that matter. And Bute was clinching in that match, something he's not used to and won't have to do against Taylor. Bute by tko near the 10th. I would to see that in Montreal.
I think Lucian will be very mad at his next bout. He's not happy at all of the end of his fight against Andrade and will be well prepared.
Taylor does not like southpaws. Would that play a role? Why do people, not you but others, keep referring to Bika has a banger. The guy's KO ratio is barely over 50%? Thoughts?
I don't think it's a clear cut wide UD for Bute at all...this is a close competitive fight. Taylor beats Bute on the inside and mid-range. His jab, overhand right, right, left hook, combinations in general, athleticism, precision, speed all make him very effective against Bute. Confidence won't be a problem for Bute at all, in my view. If anything, he'll come in better prepared and with a meaner/more ruthless streak in him. Given that Taylor will come to fight and will be aggressive and active, that can only be a good thing, imo.
Taylor is clearly superior to Bute on the inside and mid-range. He also fights well against the ropes and has a very good right hand. Bute has problems with good right hands...Taylor would definitely be Bute's most difficult opponent, bar none. The tactical and technical challenges would be very great...physically, though, Bute should be allright.
Where does this notion come from that Taylor's advantage is on the inside? Taylor HATES fighting on the inside. He pushes off or ties up whenever the fight gets to close. Yet several of you seem to think that he would want to keep the fight in close quarters... Taylor's fight is on the outside, exactly where Bute's is. They both have beautiful jabs and love to use them. The fact that both men need their distance to get off their best shots is why this stands to be such a good fight.
Taylor is very good against righties and he might not be great against SPs, but his right hand will land on Bute, as will his left hook. Bika...he's not a banger but his power is better than just good. He is pretty much an accummulation puncher; his one-punch power isn't very great, but he punches hard constantly, throughout the fight. If the fight goes past the 8th round, the damage that he's inflicted to the body and head will pay dividends. KO ratio is misleading here...He's not the fighter he was 4 years ago, for example...he is bigger, stronger, tougher and hits harder now, not to mention that he's more aggressive and more active and more reckless... If you look at his fights since 2006...it was a NC with Beyer...who knows whether Bika would have stopped him had it gone 12...the next person he didn't stop was Calzaghe...no surprise there, but he opened up a cut...then...Thysse...of the iron chin...no one stops him...then he didn't stop Bute...well...neither did Berrio...and he has one-punch KO power...then he fought a 5 rounder (McCrary) - who was aiming to survive and an 8th rounder against Soliman, who is an experienced defensive fighter in the Contender...everyone else he stopped, including his last three opponents. I don't think Taylor hits harder than Bika with one punch. Over the course of a fight, I'm pretty sure Bika hurts his opponents much more...on the other hand, Taylor is faster and more precise...that also counts for something...
Taylor fights well on the outside when he can keep his opponent at the end of his jab and keep scoring points with his right and left hook. Against opponents who like to counter-punch and keep their distance, moving laterally, he would have to take the fight on the inside once the jab was no longer enough to set up his offence, no?
Taylor's power may not be as good but his tenacity is... just like Bika, he puts a lot into every punch. And you're right about being faster, and more precise... Taylor's shots are harder to see coming thank Bika's, who throws the widest punches in the sport. It's harder to prepare for the shot you don't see.