Lucian Bute vs. Kelly Pavlik - who wins?

Just off the top of my head, without thinking carefully...Bute hates pressure. Pavlik is great at applying pressure. On the other hand, Bute's movement and angles would make it hard for Pavlik, who goes forward in straight lines. Bute wouldn't get hit as much as people think, by Pavlik. The reach advantage that Pavlik has is a bit of a red-herring too, given the way the two fight. Pavlik's better jab would be important, though. Bute's showing more headmovement these days...he's not that easily hit anymore. He's also good at fighting at the distance that suits HIM. Pavlik is not. Bute's also faster, but counterpunching opportunities would be somewhat limited. Bute's good at enforcing his own rhythm too...as long as you don't just roll him over. Pavlik is no Andrade. He couldn't keep moving forward that easily as Bute hits him with flush lefts. He can be hurt to the body too. He can be caught flush on the chin too, using angles. But...Pavlik has the style to beat Bute. I wouldn't say it was obvious who the winner would be yet. I'd have to look at it more. Definitely a great fight, which I think will happen down the line. (I'm not voting yet)

BB...how about Bute v. Abraham?:hey

 

If we put our minds to it and analysed this carefully, the way we analysed Bute v. Taylor, for example, in the thread that Armele Romane started, we can get closer to establishing who should be seen as favourite, I think.

 

Here's an important consideration no one has mentioned. Up to this point the best southpaw Kelly has faced was Bronco McKart. A prime McKart was hell on wheels at 154, but that was 2 division south of 168, and about a hundred years ago.:think

My immediate gut reaction is that this is a very good fight. Kelly eventually walks him down and stops him, probably while behind on the cards. If Bute continues to improve his head movement and employed really fast, really smart bi-directional lateral movement, he could come up with a hard fought and well earned decision.

 

This fight is too big not to happen as some stage, boo, but I'd rather see Pavlik take on Abraham for now...I don't even want to think too much about this match-up because I want us all to stay focussed on the Pavlik v. Abraham match-up.:good

 

Huh? :bart

You forget Kelly started using a lead left hook in his last fight, even doubling up on it. So, if the jab gets slipped, there is a plan B.

 

It's going to come down to can Pavlik find Bute with his 1-2. Pavlik's two biggest wins (Taylor and Miranda) were against guys who fight flat footed and they are right in front of you. His one loss was against someone who doesn't. Where does Bute fit in all of this? Is he slick enough to maintain distance and pace with his foot speed and movement? Or can Pavlik locate him regularly? Therein lies the key factor in this fight IMO. Something tells me Pavlik isn't as bad as he was made to look against Hopkins. He just fought someone tailor made for him and i think Pavlik will be able to find a home for his 1-2. Not regularly but enough to make it competitive. But Bute is talented in his own right. He'll be moving and countering and landing combinations.

It might be an actual fight a few years down the line if Pavlik fills into SMW nicely.

 

Lucian Bute ain't no ****ing Marco Antonio Rubio.:bart

 

Pretty tough to call. It's easy to just assume Bute, because he has speed and southpaw stance, but Pavlik can put some pressure on him and Bute does not always enjoy that.

I think it mostly depends on how sharp Pavlik can be at 168. He has seemed really slow and lacking snap in Taylor II and against Hopkins. If thats the case I doubt if he'll be able to effectively put enough pressure on Bute.

Otherwise, don't rule out Pavlik doing something more than Andrade did. Pavlik can punch just as hard as Andrade, and is probably a straighter more accurate puncher. He must have the sharpness to pin him down, otherwise we'll see Pavlik plodding around the ring getting schooled again.

 

I don't think he'd have to. Pavlik generally does an okay if not great job of picking shots off on the gloves. Sometimes he looks like he's being hit because of the way he defends shots, but they are often partially blocked.

There is a big difference between throwing a good long jab like Pavlik does and sustaning pressure off a hard jab then walking forward like Andrade does. Andrade is a much easier target in that respect.

 

did ne of guys see the bute vs. adrade fight bute did well for the first 11rds but he was really gased in the 12 rd. pavlik could fight hard for 25 rds. bute was clearly out against andrade. like hermit said also he keeps rt hand low very low from what i seen in the 2 fights i ve seen bute in. so with kelly dbl jabbing him all night bute will eventually drop so i think kelly by ko

 

bute whoops pavlik