Make or break for Lucian Bute, part one.

This is one of those crossroads fights coming up, for Lucian Bute. In particular, it'll show his overall boxing IQ, he's gonna have to move gracefully around the ring and make Johnson come after him in straight lines, if he does not.. I'm pretty sure, Lucian is in big trouble here.


Lucian Bute's keys for this fight:

Lateral movement
Lucian must move in this fight, he's not gonna be able to back up in straight lines. Movement has always been key to get Johnson to fall off balance in his relentless assault, because Johnson more often than not, has heavy leverage on his front foot when he's coming after you. Lucian can neutralize him by moving AWAY from Johnsons right hand and occasionally tying Glencoffe UP.

Combination punching
This is simple, Lucian should not fall in love with his ONE PUNCH that is the left uppercut to the body AND head, Lucian needs to throw more than one punch at a time, because Glencoffe after over 50 rounds of sparring, SHOULD BE ABLE TO DETECT that left hand missile. Glencoffe is gonna expect Lucian to rely on that one punch, so for Lucian to bring in more combination punching, he'll throw Glen off guard a little bit. And as both Froch and Dawson did, combination punching helps ease some of that pressure from Glen.

Footwork
Will Lucian use smart footwork, getting out of the way AND most importantly, not strafing in the direction of Glencoffe's right hand. There were moments in both the Froch-Johnson and Dawson-Johnson fights where, even if they had Glen figured out and circled AWAY from his big right hand, he was able to sneak it in to both body AND head, because he put so much pressure on them, he made them punch themselves, and opened up for his right hand bombs.

Turning his opponent
Glen has very good physical strenght, whenever Lucian ties him up, Lucian MUST TURN HIM and make space, if he can't, Johnson could back him into a corner, where things will get ugly for Lucian.
Glen Johnson's keys for this fight:

Smart, relentless pressure
Relentless pressure alone has broken Lucians pipes in the past, we all know Glen brings relentless pressure, but he must also be able to bring smart pressure, in other words, he's gonna have to make Lucian circle into his right hand, and he's gonna have to go to work whenever he gets Lucian up on the ropes.
If he does this, I think it's very possible for Johnson to beat him up and stop him.

Footwork
What I mean here is, Johnson needs to step over and around Lucians front foot, not follow him in straight lines, it'll enable him to put on smart pressure as posted above.

Feints
Feinting the right hand will make Lucian throw his left hook to the body, and if he's smart enough to do it whilst Lucian is backing up, he can make Lucian throw, and then throw his own punches behind it, when Lucian is defensively ALL OPEN. Yes I said it, open.. Lucian after throwing his strongest left hook, is WAY OPEN to any sort of counters. And I'll be bringing up this thread for his future fights, I think smart fighters will lure him out to throw that punch, and then act upon it.

Body punching
This is understood already, if Glen is able to go to the body early and HARD, Lucian is in trouble, simple as.


Overall, I think experience fighting another benefits the counterpuncher/boxer, and I think Glen is more of a one-trick pony than Lucian, so Lucian will be able to throw things out there that Glen does not expect, like combination punching and constant movement.

My prediction for this fight: Lucians BIGGEST TEST TO DATE, wins a UD after some scary moments.

What I'll bet on this fight, Casino gives me 5/1 on Glencoffe, those are just enticing odds, given Lucians history.


Enjoy a good fight this weekend, and props to Lucian for stepping up to the plate. WAR LUCIAN :smoke

 

Lucian will get a chin-check this weekend, trust me.

I think he'll hold up, the problem is if he starts panicking, then Johnson will dog him out and break him down.

 

:good

Even Swedish TV, and afaik danish TV has picked this up, so this is one of Lucians big international break throughs, I hope he does good, I really do.