Manny Pacquiao vs. Lucas Matthysse

Reportedly being negotiated between Oscar & Bob for early '16. :think

Both are coming off losses, and both have very little sand left in the hourglass (Pacquiao will be 37 years old by the fight; Matthysse has been coming off the rails since the Garcia loss having been decked by Molina, struggled with Provodnikov and been diced up & stopped by light-hitting Postol...all signs that his prime may have been mercurial and now a memory...) so it would be a desperate war between two hungry guys that can bang and both have certain advantages here.

I'd find a knockout in either direction equally unsurprising.

 

Safe? The way Matthysse throws his money punch right hand means a KO6 repeat is hardly outta the question. He doesn't have an iota of Márquez's timing & technique (not to say Matthysse is crude, just...well, no active welterweight, now that Mayweather is retired, has an iota of Márquez's timing & technique) but he is a significantly harder puncher, more explosive and more insistent on taking chances.

Matthysse also would have no problem finding the large-headed, diminutive, straight in-and-out moving southpaw with the right hand. Pacquiao is nearly a dream come true for Matthysse.

On the other hand, Matthysse has struggled in the past with quick southpaws (even though he deserved the nod against both Zab Judah and Devon Alexander, his effectiveness was limited by their speed, exacerbated by the alien stance) and Pacquiao would himself relish the opportunity to have someone come at him as head-on as Matthysse would be like to. It could, if Matthysse were unable to come in with a plan B or adapt on the fly, boil down to Pacquiao tattooing the tattoo artist's forehead with his 1-1-2 while Matthysse is fishing for body shots as is his wont on the outside. That would almost certainly lead up to a stoppage by accumulation for Manny.

 

I'll say 45% chance Pac by KO, 35% Matthysse by KO, 20% anything else.

 

Also keep in mind that Márquez is a counter-puncher and inclined to wait on golden opportunities (like that one, that he patiently spent 41 rounds & change awaiting).

Matthysse isn't going to wait on shit. Unless the Postol loss has turned him into a completely gun-shy fighter (which I'd find shocking, given that he didn't react that way after his previous losses...if anything, becoming even more gung-ho after Garcia) he will be ripping shots at Pacquiao hoping to make contact...and his average right hand even with inferior technique will sting a whole lot more than 99% of Márquez's. (pretty much any save that once-in-a-lifetime bomb...and I'm pretty sure a fully loaded up flush Matthysse right hand could match its devastation)