Many possible upsets this week.

Those with highest likelihood of producing one in red, moderate likelihood in green and next to zero in blue.

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- admittedly, the more logical pick here is Lenny Zappa, given his successes at much higher levels than Castillo has fought. Plus, he's over 3 years removed from his only defeats, suffered back to back, one to a respected titlist. This, however, is a case of "styles (& habits) make fights". Zappavigna starts off very slow; Castillo in contrast pretty fast. Zappavigna is vulnerable early on (look at how many times, even in victory, he gets dropped in the 1st and 2nd - even at the hands of non-punchers!); Castillo at his most dangerous. Also, the style of Ammeth Diaz very closely mirrors that of Castillo at his most aggressive - those Mayorga style full-body cannonball punches that fly in at max power from unpredictable angles. Zappa struggled with that, and is still not the world's most adaptable guy or comfortable with anything in front of him that isn't nice and basic. If this gets past the first two or three, it becomes Zappa's ballgame, however, as he is almost certain to be given a decision at home (and will probably deserve it fairly) and stands an increasingly good chance of pummeling Castillo into submission as it wears on.

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- probably not an upset risk...but unheralded Rudenko did give Browne a headache, and Welliver does have thrice as much experience in the ring, even if much of that record is padded and he usually falters when stepping up in class...and his last few losses were to opposition not even close to world class...

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- many have touted Rabchenko as the 'secret weapon' at 154lbs, the guy who could wreak a bit of havoc if he ever gets himself in the mix with big names. Mundine is a tiny step in that direction and will answer many questions about the Belarusian. If he's up to snuff, formidable as believed, he should deal Mundine his third knockout and perhaps end his career. If, however, some of the going concerns ring true - that his lack of exceptional hand or foot speed or versatility could be exploited by a slick and experienced operator such as Mundine - he could pan out to be another "secret weapon" that goes dud when exposed (remember Selcuk Aydin?). Mundine's form lately is difficult to get a bead on - he dominated a shot Mosley, but was in turn dominated by an inactive Clottey. In the meantime, we have very little to go on with Rabchenko. His competition to date topped off by going 4-0 (3) against Vitu, Rhodes, and Pryce x2 - the latter pair of Brits a bit shopworn and thus only marginally informative.

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- Jo-Jo is a great prospect, and on the short list of recent U.S. amateurs expected to make a comfortable transition into the pro ranks (and thus far doing just that). He should on paper be a huge favorite over Castaneda - but then again, so was Jose "Wonder Boy" Lopez. Castaneda took Lopez to school and held the Puerto Rican - boasting a similar record to Diaz, and standing three inches higher - to a majority decision in his own backyard, swapping a bunch of knockdowns with him...4:3 in favor of Castaneda! Diaz in his light schedule has yet to have anyone test his chin...or even give him a competitive fight. Castaneda is capable of doing both.

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- Cuadras lost a bit of shine when he dethroned Wangek. Many observers were unhappy with the circumstances around the bout's conclusion, the scoring, and how Cuadras seemed to alter his usual seek & destroy style to "run" from Wangek all night. His reputation for messy anticlimax grew in his first defense, a TD over Salgado, also ended on a headbutt. Mabait is a rightful underdog here - but his only losses are to vaunted countryman Marco Demecillo (trading knockdowns) and journeyman contender Alejandro Hernandez, most recently seen giving Tomoki Kameda hell. If there was a reason Cuadras ran from Wangek, and if he indeed butted Salgado on purpose for that same reason (he doesn't feel comfortable taking leather from anyone that can hit) then Mabait has a very reasonable puncher's chance here. Even if not, Cuadras' bizarre inconsistency and the fact that Mabait is a solid fringe world challenger make a tilt in the Filipino's direction not inconceivable.

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- Briedis has done everything he was supposed to until now, being fed a steady diet of baby mush. If you aren't stopping the likes of Joszef Nagy or Danny Williams these days you probably aren't worth talking about. Slightly more impressive were stoppages of Joey Vegas (besting the results of Dmitry Sukhotsky, Dmytro Kucher and Nathan Cleverly and matching those of Edison Miranda and Ryno Liebenberg) and Lubos Suda, a Czech trier known to be tough and gritty although he does now have a half dozen stoppage losses. Cool Abdoul is the sort to come in, show off his slick defense, get hit very little but also barely post any points on the scoreboard, collect his paycheck and go home. If he feels like embarrassing Briedis, and/or spots enough weaknesses to believe that he can, it could well be within his power. Briedis has never faced anybody with a pulse. Abdoul, if he wants more than another cool payday, has just enough warm blood - and the right kind of smoothness and countering ability unlike anything Briedis has ever looked at - to potentially confound the Latvian.

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- massive step up for the undefeated Sniper, who's generating buzz his resume can't yet support. Farenas is coming off a spectacular triumph in his previous eliminator, over a similarly hyped-up successful amateur with an identical 18-0 record to Pedraza's. Before that he was very game in back to back world title bids. Pedraza last time out showed off why he's so highly thought of in dispatching Mexican veteran J.C. Martinez...but also got hit enough to a) make it a thriller and b) cause one to wonder how well he can absorb or avoid such punishment from someone younger, better, sharper and more powerful than Martinez. To me this is 50-50.

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- while I'm high on Pulev and think he's the best challenge out there for Klitschko at this stage, I just don't think he can do anything here that a motivated Povetkin failed to. He does have a lovely jab and the height to perhaps compete on the outside, but we have never really seen anyone outbox Klitschko at range and it would be a reach to suggest Pulev can just for having some of the requisite tools. If he tries battling it out up close & personal, he will suffer the same fate as the no less athletic (or high ring IQ) Povetkin - given the giant squid treatment. The question to me is whether Klitschko lands his 1-2 enough to put the hardly invincible Bulgarian away...dependent largely on how many chances Pulev takes. If he pulls a Haye, then he can 'merely' lose a decision. If he goes for broke, I don't see it going well for him as more powerful men have failed to hurt Klitschko...while much lesser men (Abell, Ustinov) have been able to hurt Pulev.

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- while not even close to as good as the last three Macklin conquerors, all longtime world champions, Heiland is probably as good as the first two, Facey & Moore. They were both UK domestic level ceiling-bumpers, and El Gaucho de Pigüé is about the same in his native Argentina. He's durable and hardworking in the ring, even if he lacks any special qualities. That might be enough to cause problems for a seemingly regressive Macklin, particularly if he looks past Heiland. The brutality he suffered at the hands of Golovkin has left Macklin worse for wear, as he only just edged the hungry but green Lamar Russ...and worse, Spanish gatekeeper Jose Yebes. He seems to have reverted back to his old form of 6-10 years ago, more easily drawn into brawls, which leaves the door ajar for the slow and steady Heiland.

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- even as the visitor, and with Daley the hometown unbeaten "house fighter", I think Kalenga should be heavily favored to defend his interim WBA belt. He seized it by pounding out a SD over a superior talent in Masternak (though I scored it a draw, having fought on such even terms with Masternak still easily trumps anything Daley has ever done). His power and difficult-to-cope with style of frantic hooking should be more than pedestrian and untested Daley can handle. Daley is the more skilled boxer, however, and if he can neutralize Kalenga's attacks enough to avoid suffering knockdowns, he could be awarded the contest on cleaner work.

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- the Mexican has every conceivable advantage here except maybe power (and that's a coin toss...but his age, reach, height, speed, and being a southpaw more than stack the deck for him even if power's a wash), and is hailed by many including myself as the future of the division...while Zuniga is a gutsy but tarnished relic. Zuniga has almost double the rounds under his belt, in only eight more bouts over a career spanning 13 years to Ramirez Sanchez's 5. He is arguably the best opponent GRS will have seen, and undeniably the biggest puncher. It was only fairly recently that he put Alejandro Berrio to sleep in a crazy war...though he lost and looked his age in the rematch sixteen months later.

 

Heck, even if Welliver and Zuniga were to spring the upsets, it wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world. Both have mixed with greater company than Browne and Ramirez Sanchez respectively - and while they've mostly lost, that has to count for something. Both are renowned for their ability to soak up damage, as well, stopped only twice each (in all four cases they were stopped while standing or retired in the corner; neither has ever been knocked out cold off their feet) despite the caliber of fighter they've met. Browne and Ramirez Sanchez are unused to running into much resistance...so if either makes the mistake of punching himself out looking to make a statement... who knows? :think

 

The above is copied from a post of mine in the Rummy's Challenge thread, which increasingly has become a smaller-knit group...I figured that was too much effort to not share with a broader audience, though it will probably still net a whole bunch of "tl;dr" reactions :yep The reason certain bouts of note are excluded from mention - like Ouali vs. Figueroa on Thursday, the Iron Mike Productions doubleheader on Friday (Salka vs. Clazy and Vasquez vs. Mosquera) and the South African doubleheader (Oosthuizen vs. Grachev and Funeka vs. Belaev), Mormeck vs. Masternak, and the Mijares/Gamboa doubleheader on Saturday - is because only cards with known television outlets have traditionally been listed in Rummy's league.

Several of those could also produce upsets!

 

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:good

Big Daddy would need to really **** the bed and turn in a career worst performance (and gas out just minutes in) - and El Zurdo would need to be hiding 100% fine porcelain (though you would think Lorenzo or Mouton would've exposed that if so...but he never really gave them much of a chance) - for either to lose.

 

Roughhousing or behind the jab?

 

:thumbsup


Well you have more faith than I do in his physical strength and stamina..and I consider myself a Pulev fan and will be rooting for him.