Margo Nearly A 2/1 Underdog Again... Odd?

Just pointing out the facts. Are they wrong?

I'm rooting for Tony, as I was in the first fight as well, but I can see why he is not favored, doesn't mean **** to me.

 

I feel that his record at the weight is very tin given the fact that Foreman was a very very bad champion that lost to a journeyman in his next fight and Mayorga has been shot since the Tito fight. I'm rooting for Cotto but I think that he is very overrated at the weight.

 

If this fight goes to the cards, Cotto wins without question.

 

I really have little idea how to predict this fight.

Handwraps controversy aside, there's so many other factors at play. Margarito has had a long career as a pro fighter, he's not exactly someone whose style tends to age better. He took two of the worst beatings in recent memory against Shane and Manny and had a serious eye injury.

Cotto's not exactly been looking great either. He looked okay against Foreman and Mayorga, IMO. It's possible Margarito has both a style and psychological edge on him.

This is one fight I can just flip a coin to make a prediction.

 

the odds in my book are difficult to make

both are shot

both have taken some punishment in the last few yrs

they are older

they are heavier

did Margo cheat?

is Margo's eye a factor?

who is more shot

who learned more from the first fight

can Cotto box a disciplined fight for 12 rounds or will he get caught in another brawl

i would have Margo as the favorite seeing as he won

but Cotto has won his last 2 or 3 fights

Margo is coming off a 1 and 2 stretch with a brutal KO and tremendous 12 round beating with a win in between plus two large layoffs one from a suspension and one from a recovery

i would not argue with either guy being the betting fave none of that means anything in this kind of fight

 

as my man Dwyer might say, this one calls for a "straddle". Take Cotto by decision straddled against Margo by KO. (The real Dwyer actually suggests something else entirely, and I've forgotten what it is).

But then there's the little wrinkle about Margo's eye. Ordinarily I'd say no way does Cotto KO Margo. But in this case he might get a late TKO. I figure the ref would let Cotto exact a sufficient degree of revenge for the whole hand wrap incident before taking mercy on Margo and stopping the fight. The NYC commission will also want some cover for their decision to let Margo fight. That leads me to believe that an early medical stoppage is unlikely.

So, throw a few bucks on Cotto to win in the 9th, 10th, or 11th round to round out your straddle.

 

I think it boils down to the fact that Cotto just has to do a few things better in the second fight in order to come out successful and intact.