Marquez Defeating Pacquiao DOES NOT Indicate Pac Loses to Floyd- A Technical Summary

There's no point in continuing discussion when you refuse to recognize any potential strategies for Pacquiao and revert to a simple "Floyd will know where his head is/Floyd will adjust" argument.

Pacquiao isn't easy to time with a jab because of the way he turns as he throws and tilts his head, and Pac consistently gets his lead foot outside of his opponent's, aside from JMM's, who circled leftwards. His feints and head movement at his best reduce the chances of Mayweather. I already conceded that I can see Pac running into a jab when when he goes to throw the 1-1-2 from too far outside, but that's not the only way he closes the distance.

I'm not throwing a hissy fit, I'm just saying that if you have something to say about the subject while insulting me like a 3rd grader, then say it and move on, or argue civilly.

"Part of the fantasy", **** off with that ****.

 

Apply what to myself? I just conceded the jab was a proper tool for stopping Pac from rushing in with the 1-1-2, but wouldn't be determinant. I can see Floyd winning, I already mentioned several times that Floyd is effective moving to his right, but I can see the fight being competitive as well because of the risks involved in circling right, even at range.

Pacquiao getting his lead foot on the outside places him away from the right hand, I don't see what you're getting at. The battle of lead foot positioning is to circle away from the opponent's rear hand and set up your own. That's at the heart of what I'm discussing.

I apologize if you feel I put words in your mouth, it wasn't my intention, but it's frustrating when several posters constantly misunderstand and mischaractarize an argument/observation, and then engage in ad hominem attacks. The discussion was civil until you started acting all high and mighty and calling my observations fantasies and telling me to "stop" making arguments because they were just so damn laughable. I've made plenty of accurate observations and predictions before, I just laid out exactly why Floyd had success against Guerrero in another thread, I've boxed for 3 years, none of this is hyperbolic fantasy, it's boxing (beyond the fact that the fight hasn't materialized and we're discussing hypothetical scenarios).

Pac's power at 147 is overrated, Floyd himself overrates it when he describes Pac as "walking through" fighters. But I think Pac's upper body movement in the 4th JMM fight was ace.

 

You're saying what do I envision Manny throwing? Lead lefts, lefts to the body, feinted right jabs before committing to something else, that awkward up-jab he throws after throwing the left, right hooks to the body. It would have to be in bursts, 3-punch combinations to the head and body to make Floyd's guard commit to different spots at different moments (Mayweather-Mosley style).

The issue with ducking towards your rear hand against a southpaw is the trajectory for the straight left.

(sorry the images option is somehow disabled right now.)

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This is the angle I was talking about when I said Pac getting his lead foot on the outside makes the jab difficult to land without the risk of a left coming down the pipe.

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I apologize again if you think I was overreacting or being unreasonable. I'll come back at some later point with more if you want to discuss further, I have an exam tomorrow and shouldn't even be on here.

 

Well I think it his best, Manny doesn't get discouraged as easily as he has in recent years when stopped short. Constantly pausing and cramping against Mosley, being lazy against Bradley and JMM (3rd fight). Throwing with diversity makes Floyd have to worry about more, pick his "pre-counters" more carefully, and that gives Manny an advantage.

I also think psychology would play a role here. I don't think Floyd truly fears a fighter once in the ring, but he has too much respect for Pacquiao's power (which at 147 is solid but far from Julian Jackson-esque). I think that early on, Manny will gain points on activity, and if he can drop Floyd or even just rock him backwards, it's a new dynamic. Floyd firmly believes, still, that he's beating 147 pounders because he has unnatural powers. Assuming they went through testing and Pac was still Pac, if he felt such a shot (and he's going to be hit hard at least once by that straight left early), I feel he'd start becoming very defensive and take very little risks and become oversensitive to Manny's feints. But this isn't something I often talk about because it's pure speculation on psychology. But it does speak to the fact that the dynamics for this fight would have been an interesting clash of styles and personalities.

I don't see Manny being smothered at all. Floyd doesn't offensively swarm fighters on the inside, he obliges them once they press, and Manny doesn't linger chest- to-chest, he circles out.

So like I said, best case scenario, Pacquiao wins a few early rounds on activity, hurts or drops Floyd, and steals a few late on activity as well, winning a split decision. He has the footspeed of Hatton, and Floyd didn't out-maneuver him until later; and the speed of Judah, who's straight left to the head and body was potent when it landed. He's also more mobile than both when it comes to using lateral angles.

But again, Floyd is very effective moving to his right, so assuming Pac is active early and Floyd does adjust by the mid rounds, the question becomes whether Pac can start timing his left hand towards the way Floyd ducks down (as in Guerrero), the same way he did when Tim ducked down. The scenario for that comes to mind when I try to illustrate Pac's offensive goals against Floyd's defense is Ward-Dawson and Pacquiao-Cotto; in both cases the opponent ducked towards their rear hand while planted and ate a head-body-head combination while circling away from the rear hand. But due to the range, it could also end up like Rigondeaux Donaire, where the back-step has him reaching and the check hook is there for the taking. But Pac is offensively much more capable and quick than Donaire.

 

The psychology doesn't affect much since I think Floyd is comfortable enough to adjust with whatever he needs to and won't fear Pac, simply be cautious early. I'd just be interested in seeing how he'd react to being floored against a guy he thinks is on power pellets. That's as far as I'll go with psychology.

Mayweather clinched Guerrero when Guerrero came at him. He doesn't seek the opponent to smother him. Obviously he's very adept on the inside, but like I said, Pac doesn't linger there, he throws and tries to get out. Floyd may have success forcing a clinch but Manny isn't likely to oblige him.

Obviously Floyd won't just be standing there, he'll be making it very difficult for Pacquiao to gauge the distance, make him wary of the right hand etc. But a fighter that leads with his left is going to start trying to time a fighter who is constantly ducking towards his right. Pac's no genius but he adjusted his aim over time throughout the Bradley fight. Floyd has superior deceptive upper body movement to Bradley, but the angle won't be much different for Pac to throw downwards. And I can say the same thing about Manny, he won't just be standing there. He'll be shuffling side to side, feinting, circling, etc.

Very good points though, those small shifts in body movement are what is likely to derail Pac as the fight continues. And if he continuously fails to bring his feet under him like he sometimes does, Floyd can back-step right out of range.

Good post.