If Chavez weighs in over the limit then he might overwhelm and tire Martinez. Martinez will try harder than usual i think as it could be seen as a grudge match. Martinez is getting older, though, and might be fading. So we'll see.
I see this fight going exactly like the Pavlik fight. When people said that Pavlik was going to put Sergio in a hospital. Chavez isn't even close to Pavlik's skill set, even if he was drunk or not.
I'm sure I've read an interview where Martinez has said he'd only fight him with random testing, would JCC Jr. agree to this? This weekend he wouldn't provide a **** sample or even weigh his gloves! Anyway, Martinez - too much skill, too fast, wide points decision.
The body attack of Chavez will make the difference. Lee was boxing well from the outside in the first, but those thudding lefts downstairs took all the fight out of him, and made him stationary. Martinez must be on his bike at all times. This sort of reminds me of Cotto/Margarito 1
Why would he ask Chavez for a catch weight, when he was appalled by Williams decision for a catch weight on their second fight? That would make him a hypocrite.
That's a possibility, and I'll be honest, Chavez took me surprise. Honestly, I thought he was a half a bum. I just didn't give him any credit, but I think Sergio will attack his body with hard punches from the outside, and that will eventually wear Jr. down, but damn...that boy has a chin and he's tough as nails. And if he will win the fight if he gets on the inside consistantly.
Chavez' only chance is to weigh-in at 160 and step in the ring at 190. Then have the fight in Mexico City with Jose Sulliman as ref and deducting points from Martinez before the start of each round for using illegal jabs, hooks, crosses and uppercuts to the head and body. With those advantages, Jr might win a controversial majority decision. Two Mexican WBC judges scoring 120-108 and one non-Argentine WBC judge scoring 108-108.
Jr is too big, too tough, too strong, and will beat the **** out of Martinez. Until someone cracks that chin, if it can be cracked...Chavez won't lose.