While I agree that Holyfield ought to be the favourite and by a long way, Baer was nothing if not powerful and durable. Evander would find it tough going slugging it out with Baer who had a massive punch. It would be stupid of Holy to do so when he's streets ahead of Baer technically and would be able to box his head off. Watch the Schmeling / Baer fight to see how it goes when even an ATG decides to tough it out in a phonebooth war with Baer.
Holyfield wins by first round knockout, Max Baer's technique was too sloppy and his punches too slow to bother Holyfield. This match-up is very similar to Haye vs Harrision in my honest opinion.