Mayweather/Marquez...A classic fan's perspective.

Logic says Mayweather...

Size, strength, speed, defense, power...It seems any attribute you care to call off, favors Mayweather. I may end up totally wrong, but when I look at this fight, I see a very competitive match, with both fighters setting and excuting traps throughout the fight.

One of the main keys for Floyd is to be able to dictate pace and distance. He'll attempt this by trying power shots early, making Marquez realize the size difference. Can he make Marquez slow down and think before coming in? If he can accomplish this, the fight may be 3/4 won...I think Mayweather will tactically be looking for a hard left hook counter when Marquez attempts uppercuts from either the left or right side. Mayweather is excellent at what he does...he can feint and change angles very quickly. In one sequence of the Hatton fight he feinted a jab, a right cross, then a left hook stopping the charging Hatton in his tracks with just feints. Why? He got Hatton's respect earlier in the fight.

Setting traps... both Mayweather and Marquez are going to be watching where and how the opponent reacts defensively to punches. Where and how do they slip the blows?...To what side?... Or get under them?... What position are they in after they punch?

Different scenarios can play in the mind's eye.

Mayweather will be watching for Marquez to step forward with a lean towards the left side as he attempts to close distance. The initial step is Mayweather's clue to change his position, then counter. Mayweather will play to his strength forcing Marquez to force the fight. Floyd will not care how he looks...just that he wins. What makes this fight intriguing is that in Marquez, Floyd is fighting an experienced opponent who will also be looking to exploit any opening he can. In this respect, he may be the most capable offensive opponent that Floyd has ever faced, in terms of punch variation and combinations.

Mayweather enjoyed success against DLH in large part because Oscar put away his jab after about six rounds. Did he?...Freddie Roach commented that DLH took himself out of position by following Mayweather around the ring, instead of cutting it off...In essense, DLH himself took away his best chance of winning a close fight. I do not think that Marquez will be making that same error. It looks like on the scant film sparring on 24/7 and past fights, that it would seem Marquez is working on coming in on angles...and Marquez does this subtley. Against Pacquiao, he adjusted by moving slightly to his left, creating a bit more distance between himself and Pac's straight left hand...after Pac would reach, Marquez would counter with his right. Juan will try this with Floyd at times creating a bit of distance away from Mayweather's left hook and crowding his right hand. In this instance, being the smaller fighter may work to an advantage. Marquez has an excellent looping left hook that seems go around the opponent's defense. Marquez will have to change up and vary his attacks and angles. from the left side, he will attempt to bring the right hand under and over. What may give Marquez the chance to use these tactics is that Mayweather is a more stationary fighter than he was at junior-lightweight through junior-welter. Preferring to move and punch less, relying on accuracy, ring smarts, and speed. Mayweather takes a page from Hopkins' at times, he looks to get set for right hands by widening his stance. He is quicker and more athletic than Hopkins, and the transition is much faster. It is less detectable because Floyd will move the backfoot back, rather than extending the from foot forward...Floyd does this to get more power into the shot. If Marquez comes directly into Mayweather without being at an angle, he is in positioned to be countered very hard by Floyd.

Generally speaking, after throwing a lead left hook, Mayweather's momentum will carry him out of an opponents punching range as he escapes to his right side. After a lead right hand, Mayweather will clutch and grab...very similar to Hopkins. Marquez may be the only opponent that Floyd has faced who can possibly counter those Mayweather tactics, because of the ability to punch at those angles from either side. It may prove interesting when Floyd thinks he may be out of range and he isn't.

Floyd's under used left jab may be brought out for this fight. If Mayweather consistantly uses the left jab, this fight may become easier for him or it might allow Marquez more opportunities to get closer and encourage exchanges making Mayweather fight at a quicker pace.

Marquez will have Floyd guessing at times too, mixing up power and delivery upstairs and down. the prospect of watching Floyd defend against one of the most fluid combination punchers to come along in a long time is an intriguing thought to me. The activity may throw off Mayweather's timing and pacing.

With that in mind...I'm going out on a limb.

Marquez by split decision.

 

146lbs to 142 lbs...I'm guessing Mayweather will come in tonight around 153-154 lbs, and Marquez will be 146-147 lbs. Not really sure the extra two pounds has any bearing. Mayweather will basically use the strength advantage to fend off Marquez, not to attempt to impose on him.
I'm thinking Marquez is going initiate (with the jab) then attempt to counter Mayweather's counters, keeping the pace uptempo. I don't see Mayweather being the same fluid fighter he was 20 months ago...He looks more filled out and heavier...going against the most proficient offensive fighter he will have faced. I believe Mayweather will be slower and the work that Marquez has implemented to training, will help to keep his speed intact.
Mayweather will find that Marquez is much more adept at getting under his punches than either Hatton or DLH...and if he brings up uppercuts or hooks, he'll be countered.

Janitor, one of the main reasons I'm going with Marquez is because of the layoff. I'm looking for a good fight.

regardless of the weight...Marquez decision.