I've been on board with most other Boxing fans when it comes to picking a winner about Saturdays fight. My pick would by a wide UD for Mayweather or possibly a late stoppage ala Hatton. I was watching through some of my boxing files the other night and came across the HBO countdowns (great series, they need to make more) to Hopkins - Taylor 1&2. I started to see certain parallels between that fight and this one. Hopkins was a big favorite. Top of most of the P4P lists, he'd been so dominate for so long that nobody could really invision him getting beat at middleweight. It's the same situation with Floyd Jr, we've never seen him in real trouble, so it's hard to visualise it. Both Hopkins and Floyd were/are defensive fighters with a relativley low punch output, Taylors formula for succses was to jump on Hopkins and throw more punches. Ortiz with his mindset could possibly do that. Hopkins fought a guy who was bigger, younger and stronger, although not neccesarily more skilled. Floyd's doing the same, Victor Ortiz is bigger and should have a weight advantage. Taylor won the Hopkins fight (in my opinion) because he was the biggest, strongest 160 pounder that Hopkins had fought in years (possibly at-all during his title reign.) Taylor also had that attitude where he came to FIGHT Hopkins, not sit back and trade jabs, but to fight, he wasn't interested in a chess match. I highly doubt Ortiz knows how to play any type of chess, it's just not something Trees do. It just made me ponder the upset that little bit more... :bbb
Good comparison. But the main difference I see, is that Hopkins was further past his physical prime when JT got to him. Mayweather, despite his ring absence, is nowhere near that stage yet. I know it's just a guess, but come Saturday night, I'm pretty sure Mayweather will have retained every bit of sharpness, athleticism, speed and strength that he showed in the Mosley fight. Unless I'm wrong here, Ortiz doesn't have the slightest chance that JT had.
There are a few elements to your comparison which ring true. Yes Ortiz is younger, physically stronger, and naturally bigger. However, when you are a little more meticulous you see that these matchups are completely different. Hopkins was ageing at the time of the Taylor fight, and Jermain was definately the number one contender coming up at 160. Ortiz is a good fighter, but I don't think he's the most logical challenger to Floyd at this point. You also need to remember that Taylor didn't really, truly, beat Hopkins in their first fight. Jermain was a HBO project and was supposed to be a big future star. There was more than a little corruption in their first fight. Ortiz will abolsutely not be able to consistently thwart Mayweather's superior skills just because he will have a good punch output. Mayweather was always more susceptible to such scenarios when he was a lightweight/light welterweight because some of his opponents possessed much better footspeed. Victor could win, this is boxing, but in this case anyone who knows boxing will summise that this was certainly will not happen. This is a massive step up in class, Ortiz will inevitably feel the pressure as fight night approaches, whilst Floyd will not be the least bit concerned about it.
I think the biggest difference between the two matchups is speed, foot and hand. Mayweather is older but will have advantages in those two categories, something Hopkins did not against Taylor.
Good comparison. I tend to agree with Lampley (the poster not the commentator) about May's handspeed advantage being superior to any physical advantage Hopkins had. I hope an upset happens.
a few things: -A prime Taylor had a nice jab, Ortiz does not have a commanding one -Ortiz is very susceptible to the overhand right which just so happens to be one of Floyd's best punches -Ortiz throws wide shots. Floyd throws short, accurate punches -Taylor, overall, was just a better boxer than Ortiz -Although Ortiz's confidence is sky high, he still struggled against Berto who isn't hard to hit like Mayweather is. -Prior to facing Hopkins, Taylor was undefeated and never shown any signs of quit in him. Can't say the same for today's Ortiz. I tend to think Floyd-Ortiz will look more like Hopkins-Tarver or maybe even Hopkins-Pavlik in terms of the outcome or performance by the winner. But I have this strange feeling Ortiz will be more trouble for Floyd than expected. It could be due to the fact that Floyd's doesn't appear to be as intense as usual in training. But that could be a publicity stunt.
