Mayweather-Pacquiao superfight nearly finalized for March 13

The reach is an advantage to Mayweather, no doubt. Again one of the reasons why Floyd will give Pac hell. But it isn't THAT big of an advantage IMO. Reach advantages are most effective against fighters who lack the necessary ability to close the gap quickly and has no head-movement or movement in general. Well, Pac has both of those. His footwork/speed is amazing in the sense that he can close the gap quickly and unnaturally between him and his opponent. You'd think he's far enough from you, but then BAM! He also has very good head-movement to give Floyd angles which helps neutralize his reach a bit. If you combine both of those and considering Pac is atleast almost as fast as Floyd, if not as fast actually, I doubt Floyd's reach advantage will be always be effective all throughout the fight.

As for the counter-punching issue. Well, you gotta remember Floyd was LEADING in that fight(well most of the fight anyway). He wasn't the one waiting on his opponent to make his first move like he usually does(i.e Hatton and DLH). And because of that, Zab had some success in countering him. That's a different situation as far as I'm concerned. I highly doubt he'll lead more often against someone as powerful as Pac. I see him doing the same thing he usually does: fighting on the backfoot and allow Pac to lead, and then punish him for his mistakes. Against that Floyd? I highly doubt counter-punching will suffice.

And yeah Pac is hittable, I don't think anybody is disputing that. But unlike Floyd, most of Pac's previous opponents throw combos against him. Is Pac hittable for Floyd? Of course he is. But is Pac hittable enough for Floyd? That's where we differ, because for me Floyd's low workrate won't be enough even if he's successful in hitting Pac all night. He'd still get overwhelmed.