Could be. My money is on that Benitez head movement wouldn't be enough against Mike's jab and consistent attack over 15. The reach disparity would make it more difficult for him to counter and his power wouldn't be nearly as discouraging as Toney's. I use Toney as a reference point because I think he's the most similar opponent Mike had to Benitez. Graham I don't think was very similar at all. Benitez was in his third division, Mike in his first. I think that would play a critical difference. But only a guess, and seeing how often I'm wrong about fights that actually happen I rarely have a very firm opinion on these fantasy match-ups. But Mike on points would be my guess because for above reasons.
My guess too, Bokaj. Though, like you, I've incorrectly predicted defeats for fighters both inferior to, and more predictable than, Benetiz, enough times, that I won't argue my guess in this fantasy fight with much conviction.
Yeah. Only last year I felt that Haney-Garcia and AJ-Dubois were locks for the guys that then went one to lose. Quite one sidedly so, especially in AJ:s case. Dubois-Hrgovic schocked me too. And had several in UFC that I got totally wrong as well. Technically I had Fury-Ngannou correct, but couldn't in my wildest dreams imagine Ngannou making it close, even though I knew Fury would be in pretty poor shape. There are probably others of the last couple of years that I forget right now. With that track record I'm not going to say something with great confidence when it comes to two fighters so close in skill, even though I feel that McCallum has the natural size advantage.
If we’re talking about the version of Benitez who outboxed Roberto Duran and knocked out Maurice Hope I think Benitez is capable of outboxing McCallum and beating him on points. Benitez’s defense and faster hands gives McCallum a lot of issues and won’t give him any counter opportunities. Fighters with slick defense and speed usually gave McCallum trouble. McCallum wouldn’t be able to outbox Benitez the way Hearns did due to not having the same power that made Benitez tentative.
I picked against Dubois vs AJ and Hrgovic too. Fury vs Usyk 1, Bivol vs Beterbiev and Eubank Junior vs Smith 1 are other fights I was confident that the eventual loser was going to win. I agree, I think there's an argument McCallum was better p4p, though it's close, and he was certainly bigger.
I also went with all your choices in those fights Greg. That is the beauty of the sport,you just never know
One of those fascinating h2h fights where there's quite a bit to consider imo. It might simply though well boil down to McCallum (despite being bigger) ultimately being a tad too slow of hand and defensive reflex, relative to what is needed, to ever truly get a step ahead of the Benitez of the Duran fight and either stay there or open a gap if Benitez doesn't slow down or fold when Mike does inevitably get through his defences with the sort of clever rolling and level/plane shifting, up and down counter combinations he was very good at. Particularly how he could shift down to his right and loop up to the left with rising hooks, a punch that Benitez could be caught with on occasion. The sharp, snappy angled jabs and quick sniping rights that Curry and Kalambay were able to clip McCallum were something in Benitez's locker that you'd have to assume would be at play here. Benitez nailed Duran, Cervantes and Leonard that way and even had success against Hearns that way to a point. Even though McCallum was excellent with his own jab and using his reach well, he didn't have the blistering speed of Leonard and Hearns to offset Benitez's radar even if the timing and stealth were there. He tended though to shift through the planes more than those two to get punches off effectively. If McCallum does close the gap, the way on the inside that Benitez could angle himself, twisting and slipping at close range with his chin guarded and his elbows tucked in while still wailing away with his own counters to the body was otherworldly. A very natural infighter who I'd bank on being able to slip inside McCallums reach to fend off body attacks and counter him. Mind you, I wouldn't him to hang about too long in there. for unnecessarily protracted exchanges. Better to pivot away before too long rather than give someone as clinical and concise as McCallum a chance to carve through when he's much the heavier handed of the two. That's the other thing. Other than having an iron chin, McCallum was a very hard hitter at 154 and although he'd have to expend a lot of mental energy and physical energy to get through to Benitez, Benitez himself would have to work very hard himself to keep offsetting Mike at all ranges. When McCallum was taking shots at 154 that it took skill and effort to avoid, he tended to take a f*ck it approach and would throw caution to the wind in order to get the job done. He wasn't above taking punches that would stop him in his tracks if it allowed him to get his own lumps in and break an opponent down who couldn't hurt him. That's what I'd see him doing if he's losing the battle of skill and it could result in him getting to Benitez late while down on points. He'd have to land a lesser percentage of his punches to do damage than vice versa. Benitez also sometimes had an occasional tendency to wing shots from the outside from both a dipping and upright position. He usually timed it well and was effective with it, probably would be here too, but he could be reckless sometimes and McCallum was the wrong man to telegraph punches against from the outside. Other than the left hook he had a great counter uppercut. All that being said, I still fancy Benitez to do the job a bit more often than not if it was the proactive, aggressive version of the Duran fight in a brilliant fight no doubt. Could be wrong though like others have said.