Mikkel Kessler vs. Chad Dawson at 175 lbs ~ Analysis Thread

Thanks to those who have provided an analysis so far.

Here are some things I think will play a role in this fight:

1. Dawson will use his handspeed and footspeed, athleticism, height and range advantage to control the pace and range of the fight, to move in and out very quickly with minimum effort, to initiate attacks with his excellent jab, before firing a couple of lightning fast combinations and flurries to the body and/or head and then move out again before Kessler has time to react.
2. Dawson is a better counterpuncher than Kessler. Dawson will use his jab and footwork to keep Kessler jab and right hand attack at bay and then use his qualities in 1. and his counterpunching skills to counterpunch Kessler. Many attacks initiated by Kessler will have little effect on Dawson even when they get past Dawson's jab, because Dawson will get the better of him counterpunching.
3. Kessler is more stationary and rigid than Dawson and his headmovement is practically inexistent. Dawson's offence and defence will generally be at an advantage because of this.
4. Kessler is mentally more resilient during a fight. He takes fewer brakes than Dawson. Dawson loses concentration and stops moving, standing right in front of his opponent.
5. Kessler has more power and is more effective on the inside. If Dawson gets in too close or stops moving, Kessler will shoot off quick, hard, very straight punches that will stun Dawson. Using combinations of hooks to the head and body followed by uppercuts, Kessler will hurt Dawson on the inside.
6. Kessler's chin is better than Dawson's; he is tougher and stronger too. We have seen that in the Andrade fight. Dawson gets stunned easily, despite not going down that quickly. Once he gets stunned, he is very much at Kessler's mercy, because he takes a long time to recover. Kessler's very effective offense would come into its own against a stationary targer like Dawson and hurt Dawson badly. Kessler's finishing skills are good enough to take out any hurt opponent that doesn't recover very quickly. Dawson wouldn't even be able to hang on, because Kessler's uppercut would damage him even more.

I think factors 1-3 will allow Dawson to win the first couple of rounds confortably. After a very strong couple of rounds, Dawson will lose concentration, stop moving so much and will allow Kessler into the fight. Kessler would hurt and stop Dawson eventually (factors 4-6).

Can Dawson keep the fight on the outside, moving in and out and laterally for 12 rounds? If he can, he wins a very wide decision. I think Kessler is tough and strong enough to force him into tiring and making mistakes and into accepting a toe-to-toe fight on the inside for long enough for Kessler to capitalize on by grinding Dawson down. In the third quarter of the fight, Kessler would hurt Dawson more and more, ending up finishing him off.

My prediction at this stage is Kessler KO 9.

 

196osh, FROST and Armele Romane stole my thunder, so let me jump straight into the heart of the matter:

Here's the questions I asked myself:

Can Dawson outbox Kessler? Yes. (1), (4)

Is Kessler tough enough and does he have a good enough chin to take the punishment Dawson can lay on him for 12 rounds, given Dawson's power, if Dawson fights the perfect fight on the outside and Kessler doesn't take risks to go after him? Yes. (2)

Is Dawson able to stop Kessler without taking big risks, just by fighting a conservative outside fight? No. (1), (3)

If Dawson takes big risks to stop Kessler, who is more likely to win in a toe to toe war, given their respective power and chins? Kessler. (1), (3), (4)

If Kessler pushes forward to put pressure on Dawson, can Dawson counter-punch him for 12 full rounds? No. (1), (4)

Is Kessler tough and strong enough and is his chin good enough to put enough pressure to push Dawson into a battle at close quaters without getting stopped in the process? Yes. (4), (1)

Can Dawson take that pressure and survive the battle for 12 full rounds against someone as effective in attack as Kessler? No. (1), (2)


Evidence: e.g.


(1) Dawson v. Johnson rounds 10 and 11 (Dawson is out on his feet and survives simply because 39-year old Johnson doesn't have enough to finish him off)

(2) Kessler v. Andrade round 12 (Kessler is tough and strong enough to keep Andrade at bay in the final round)

(3) Dawson v. Tarver round 12 (Dawson gets himself into trouble by trying to stop Tarver in the last round)

(4) Calzaghe v. Kessler round 12 (Kessler coming back very strongly at the end, after being outboxed and taking punishment)


Conclusion: Kessler gets outboxed, takes a lot of punishment but drags Dawson into a fight late on. Kessler KO 10

Kessler KO 50%
Dawson wide UD 35%
Kessler close UD 10%
Dawson T/KO 5%