watching Mosley vs Cotto the other day, just wondered what this fight might tell us about the blockbuster in november, for me this was Cotto's coming out party, this was where he showed different dimensions to his game, not just the methodical bodypuncher, but that he could box on the backfoot, he showed guile and precision, long, middle and short range. he looked more of a well rounded fighter against someone of the calibre of sugar Shane. Here's the biggest aspect I noticed in this fight in relation to pacquiao, he nullified Mosley's speed. Pacquiao has similar speed to shane (Mosley might even be faster) and pacquiao is even easier to find. Also not that long ago they both displayed similar deficiencies and slight fundamental mistakes, they were both what i like to call fast brawlers, now granted pacquiao has improved immeasurably to the point where he's now almost a complete fighter and not the one handed guy who squared up, but he still ain't the hardest to find. I know styles make fights and not resumes and past/common opponents, I know that was a pre plaster of paris and scar tissue Cotto, I know that was a pre nazim Shane (papa Mosley is whack as the yanks would say) but i was just impressed with the way he nullified that speed....Pacquiao/Cotto is by no means an easy win for Manny, lots of intangibles in this fight. This is not a prediction or a breakdown rather just an observation.
Pacquiao wins this for me mate. I honestly dont rate Cotto too much. He just seems lethargic to me. A come forward fighter with a poor defence. i know there's more too him to that but I honestly dont even see him lasting. Pac/Mosely would be a better fight IMO
I think the one mistake I believe you made in this analysis is when you assumed Pacquiao is easier to find. There has always been this common misconception surrounding Mosley that he is slick and defensively astute. I don't know whether its because he's black and fast and people put two and two together, but Mosley has never been more than a mid range slugger. The guy is an out and out gunslinger. Pacquiao will be a lot harder to find. He's smaller, he uses his feet a lot more, and he moves his head a lot more. That said I see Cotto getting some success with the jab, he can really stick that down the middle and upset Pacquiao's balance. He can even counterpunch with that hard jab, his strongest hand. When it comes down to it though Pacquiao is going to win the fight. He'll use his movement to upset Cotto, he'll never stay infront of him like Mosley and the vast majority of his opponents. He'll be in and out, side to side, and unless Cotto puts on a truely great counterpunching display he'll be overwhelmed and broken down by the mid way point.
Pacquiao has a karate style foot movement which is hard to read according to most fighters. Cotto's jab was top class when he fought Mosley. What a lot of people forget is when he fought De La Hoya...De La Hoya stood straight up and didn't pivot or duck or use any real head movement. Cotto is very good on inside of knowing what hand the other guys used and he counters straight back...such as he gets hit with right uppercut he replies with left hook. Pacquiao will throw lots of shots in his combination's what i'm hoping Cotto will do is drop and roll and use that beautiful corkscrew uppercut he throws from the side. I agree with TTFP he's very hard to find but i do feel Cotto is the type of fighter who can get to him...he has such a great way of knowing range and he also throws a fantastic array of punches which will bring more to this fight. It's going to be a toss up fight as Manny Steward said. I think a fit healthy and confident Cotto beats Pacquiao in a fantastic back and forth battle. But it all depends on what Cotto we see.
What i also saw in that fight is that cotto has to set his feet to throw the huge shots. Also mosley stood in front of him and traded with his hands low something manny will not do. Cotto is a very good fighter but pacquiao is an ATG in his prime. I think more people need to watch the diaz pacquiao fight to see how much pacquiao has improved his defence and overall elusiveness. I saw a bit of mayweather in pacquiaos defence that night and a bit of duran. In particular people need to watch some of the rounds in total slo-mo paying attention to the placement of pacquiao hands, feet and elbows when he makes his moves. Coming back to the mosley cotto fight, one worrying thing for miguel is that both him and mosley would stand in front of each other stationary for a split second which allowed cotto thinking time. Pacquiao does not do that, his activity level is consistently high from start to finish i.e. hes always slipping, feinting or getting into position to hit you and is rarely on the heels of his feet. I just believe that on the night pacquiao will be a step too far for cotto.
