As someone who bets on sports for a living I'm quite in tune with what the sharps or "wise-guys" are doing in regards major sporting events. And usually, like with Duke/Baylor earlier in the year these guys like to roll with an underdog as the books like to take advantage of an overestimation of favorites in the eyes of the public, and overinflate the lines. What surprises me as a boxing fan and someone who considers himself fairly knowledgable in the sport, is that while I view the line of +350 on Mosley to be good value for the number one welterweight in the world at what Naazim Richardson calls "a premier weight" against an enigma like Floyd Mayweather Jr., the sharps in Vegas seem to unanimously agree that their money (and lots of it) is going on Floyd on the long and borderline prohibitive odds of 1/4. Most of the people I know are more than willing to lay tens of thousands of dollars for the relatively small, albeit in their eyes, safe, payout. As I insuated above, I personally think that Shane has a more than ample shot at winning this fight. For me, Mayweather is still untested. He's an unknown commodity. He is a beyond elite athlete and his boxing skills verge on genius but he has never been truly tested, nor hurt, and as such has never needed to develop any survival skills. No one has been able to routinely puncture his defence and so we cannot determine how he will act if someone can. Can Shane? I don't know. I would lean towards him not. But who can say for sure? And what if he can? Juan Manual Marquez was able to land overhand rights on Floyd and Shane is both faster and more damaging at the weight. I also refute the concept that I have heard being bandied around by "wise-guys" that Mayweather will win because boxing is all politics and there is too much implied money in an eventual Mayweather/Pacquiao fight for the sport to let anything get in its way. Negotiations to make that fight broke down when the two parties met a stumbling block that could not be overcome. The fight died a heavy and immediate death. If anything has happened since that moment Pacquiao turned his back and signed to fight Clottey instead, to suggest that negotiations will be more successful a second time around, then I sure as hell haven't heard it. If anything, I think that both the Pacquiao/Clottey fight and the Mayweather/Mosley fight will make negotiations even more difficult. Reason being that Pacquiao is coming off of a dominant, yet altogether uncompelling fight that sold reasonably, and yet Mayweather (assuming he wins) will most likely be coming into negotiations on the back of an exciting fight (I assume Shane makes it so, he has never not) with a revenue that in all likelihood, in spite of Steve Kim's report, does far better than Pacquiao/Clottey in financial numbers. If anyone thought that Floyd would have been difficult to deal with before, try and deal with him when he has more ammunition behind him. I find it hard to believe that when his PPV numbers pulverise Pacquiao's, that he will accept (what I consider fair) a 50/50 split. In fact, the only way in which I can see the negotiations going well a second time around, is if Freddie Roach was simply stalling for more time to prepare his fighter for Mayweather's style, in declining all of the drug tests and will magically make an about face and accept all of his demands. Unless this happens, then a fight with Shane Mosley is emminently more makable, after beating Mayweather, will be more marketable, and will make everybody involved incredible amounts of money. And this is a fight that can be made. Easily. Therefore is there not likely more money in seeing Mosley win? That fight and the money that will be made from it is a sure thing. The money that could be made on Floyd/Manny is purely hypothetical, and if you ask me, more unlikely than likely. In closing, my feeling is that anyone betting on this fight is taking a big risk. The sharps are on Floyd Mayweather to win. I can definitely see this happening - I worry only, but largely, about Shane's footspeed - but at that price I think that this event is unbettable. BOL, guys!
what are the odds, like -450 floyd, +300 shane?? ... I think the smart money goes on floyd by UD! Its the most likely outcome.... IM sure the -450 would turn into -200!!? Shane is not going to beat mayweather, floyd has superior speed and superior skills!!!!
I think what you're saying is Mosley is a "live dog" which I agree with. I'm planning on betting a couple thousand on mayweather. I think Floyd will rise to the occasion if Mosley tests him. Historically, he has risen to the occasion. I'm of the opinion that the best of Floyd Mayweather hasn't been seen in the ring, and he'll show it if Mosley forces him to.
I cleaned house on pavlik-martinez a few weeks ago!! I got like +160 on martinez.... I knew martinez was clearly the better man! If it were up to me to make that line, it would of been martinez -200, pav +160! I love when I pick up free money when the bookies over-rate a fighter!! For this fight Im going to lay 2,500 for floyd by decision... theres just no way he knocks out mosley, he didnt knock jmm out for christ sake!!!
I've been right about how close fights are going to be many times after being seduced by the odds. After the dog looses a split decision to the "face" under controversial circumstances my money is just as gone as if I had been completely wrong. No thanks on this one.
