Muhammad Ali 1968-69; what would we watch?

We’d watch him lose his title to Frazier either late 1968 or early 1969. That still gives him a four or five year run as champion, & somewhere slightly north of ten defenses uninterrupted. Pretty great even before he wins the rematch, which he’d be no less than a 50% chance of doing.

But then who’s to say after winning a rematch with Frazier, it isn’t Ali who shows up under-done in Jamaica in January of 1973?

 

would have a very difficult fight. Frazier, maybe he would have managed to keep the title but I think he would have been defeated by Norton or Foreman. Either way he would have been rated a little lower but he would still be one of the #1 contenders next to Joe Louis and George Foreman. Foreman's dominance was probably interrupted by Jimmy Young or Larry Holmes.

 

I think if Ali and Frazier had met in the late 60s, Ali would win. He wouldn’t have had the long layoff and he’d also be facing a less experienced Frazier. We’d also likely see earlier matches featuring him vs Quarry, Ellis, Mathis and Bonavena which he’d win. There’s a real possibility that if the exile had never occurred that Ali might have broken some serious records like Marciano’s 49-0 and Louis’s 26 title fight record.

 

A sizeable part of his loss to Frazier, IMO, was arrogance & over-confidence. He simply did not believe Frazier was that good.

The exile obviously did erode him somewhat. I can’t imagine without the exile, he somehow gets less prone to over-confidence. The opposite would occur.

 

His confidence and arrogance was with him for every fight of his career including all three Frazier fights, foreman, Norton, etc. he still finished the best of the bunch. Eliminate the layoff and ad a less experienced Frazier and he not only finishes
as the best but he’d be even….. Bestier ? Bestest ?

 

It’s games with Liston & Foreman (& probably Norton too, after their first meeting), though. He knows they’re that good, & in the former two cases, that scary, that invincible. He knows he might not be the better fighter. Ali looks to me to be convincing himself as much as anyone around him that they aren’t that good, & he’s better. I think it was completely different with Frazier. & would only be worse for him in that regard if he were the long-reigning champion, didn’t have to worry about whether coming back had hurt his game, & Frazier hadn’t proven himself as much given he’d have the role of challenger.

 

Eddie Futch said in 1967 that Frazier was too green for Ali.

so that fight likely doesn’t happen until 69.

my guess is he fights Bonavena, Quarry and Ellis.

 

Frazier was nr 1 ranked already when Ali was stripped in early 1967. Two years was a very long time back then to stay away from a title shot. I think Yancey's hand is forced and Frazier challenges for the title in 1968 if Ali never was exiled.

 

Frazier had only fought 14 rounds in the two years before he fought Ali in 1971. Only 11 complete rounds, and 3 partial rounds. When MA-JF fought in March of 71, MA had fought more rounds with Quarry and Bonavena than JF had fought total in the previous 2 years. From what I have seen JF was as good in 1968-70 as he would get. I think it is plausible that Ali would lose to JF in 68 or 69 and whether he would win the rematch depends on whether JF becomes complacent like he did after the 1971 fight or whether he stays hungry. Small pressure fighters have to always be in top shape and they have to maintain their desire. JF did not after 1971, maybe if he had fought Ali in 1968 he would have had a few more top performances before he declined.

 

Frazier wouldn't have been ready to challenge Ali until after Bonavena II, but that's not to say Joe would've won in 1969, his peak year.

In fact, I don't think Frazier ever beats Ali with no exile for the GOAT, but even if Muhammad has his impacted wisdom tooth removed before his jaw can be fractured, Norton becomes the one to dethrone him. Ali was utterly unprepared for that long overhand right Liston was unable to develop for Lewiston. He was prepared to lean away, not duck in San Diego.

Norton, not Frazier, becomes the definitive rivalry of Ali's career. Joe was great at one thing, but his hook to the head was precisely what the GOAT's lean was geared to slip away from. With Ali's legs fully preserved without any exile, Frazier would have trouble getting his hook to Ali's body.

Ken had the counter jab, overhand right, height and reach Joe did not share. He was a much better two handed body puncher. He was much more Eddie Futch's ideal for taking Ali on. But Joe's necessary focus turned his stylistic deficit into a strength.

What does not happen to Frazier is a sapping FOTC war which debilitates him for Foreman, an opponent who he likely faces at his peak weight of a more mobile and undiminished 203. Winning a first time match with George is problematic for Joe, but without him being permanently reduced, Frazier may successfully complete the stratagem he tried to apply in their 1976 rematch when he was far more arthritic and over 20 pounds heavier.

Ali sweeps a trilogy with Frazier, but it's an extremely crowd pleasing trilogy of Championship Distance contests, because Frazier always gave fans their money's worth.

There's a caveat though, and that's the real possibility a never exiled Ali retracts from lack of competition. (As he was dyslexic, I agree that his original 4F disqualification from the draft was valid, and never should've been changed to 1A. Frazier was also opposed to Ali being redesignated like this, and was his supporter through exile. BTW, in a 1967 interview on YouTube, Joe does refer to him as Clay long before there was any Ali induced promotional acrimony between the two.)

 

He lost to Frazier because he dropped his right uppercut and he was timed all night, he lost to Frazier because he couldn’t fight inside, he lost to Frazier because he couldn’t fight “scared” his way of moving made him take a lot more steps then he should’ve and he kept getting found stepping… he showed us how he’d beat Frazier by clinching him to death and doing as much damage as he could on the way in… he wasn’t going to beat Frazier by “dancing” more that’s not a valid game plan here. Same thing happens in the 60s Frazier wins the first, Ali the 2nd and 3rd, 3rd fight being similar to the 2nd he took the 3rd fight because Frazier was shot he didn’t realise he was too.

 

Ali probably fights Patterson three times… maybe Liston again when the contenders dry up? Sonny was in a lot of debt I think so maybe they go to Sweden? maybe with enough money we get Ingo vs Ali… Who was there around he missed? Machen? Err - Bonavena earlier, Foster earlier? Ellis earlier, Quarry earlier etc. eventually he runs into Frazier and loses the first encounter - how history changes is this time Foreman never becomes champion… Ali overcomes Frazier reigns for quite a while and defends against Foreman eventually, maybe earlier in 73 or something idk George losses and just becomes another “guy” in the era. I could see Ali breaking 49-0 if he has a good manager.

 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Foreman dethroned an unprepared Ali before Norton did.

 

Agreed. Ali always had to lose to Frazier once in order to beat him, IMO.