I think Mundine has a good chance vs Pavlik. He is more athletic and faster. Pavliks chin is better, but he has weaker defence also.
He was a light middleweight his whole career then he got KO'd in late 06 then jumped up to light heavy then back down to super middle then back up to light heavy and now back down to super middle.:nut
Mundine has a suspect chin and fights no one . The guy is down under fighting the Crazy Kims of the world on PPV in Australia its like WWF Wrestling. He makes decent money doing this. He fights Sam Solimon a few times a year. He takes local B grade Talent slaps it on PPV in Australia and gets paid. The guys career is a sham. A ducker with a neat little career going in Australia. The only way he fights Pavlik is once he has squeezed all the PPV dollars of his mediocre career dry in OZ he will seek a last decent payday vs Pavlik and get KTFO. Sooner or latre Mundine little milk run in OZ will run out.
He has faced Ottke, Kessler, and Green. And he has faced Soliman twice - and so what - it's pretty common in boxing. Soliman gave Winky a hard time.