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The reason that Joe will win is because Jones is shot, he doesnt have the reflexes that he use to and he is now there to be hit...Joe isnt faster then Jones still, but Jones doesnt throw many shots he never has but he isnt able to counter the way he use to. I think that jones will look to counter Joe but will be off with his timing. That was evident in his fight with Tito, and Jones has only gotten older since then.