My Thoughts/Analysis & Prediction of Marcos Maidana VS Robert Guerrero

To help predict Maidana-Guerrero, I re-watched both of their last fights (Maidana-Morales & Guerrero-Katsidis), and wanted to share my thoughts.

Guerrero-Katsidis was a good fight, though as anyone who saw the fight knows, the Ghost dominated fairly easily. There were a few rounds where Katsidis had his moments, jumping in to close the distance and counter, but for the most part, he didn't have an answer to Guerrero's southpaw jab, or straight left (and when he did, Guerrero didn't do badly at all mixing it up with him). Guerrero's output wasn't super high, but he landed some good hard shots and it was enough for him to win very comfortably on the cards.

Maidana-Morales was a very interesting fight. The first time I saw it, I was of course paying attention to Morales displaying an unprecedented level of durability and skill (while drinking far too many beers in excitement and ending up being the only drunk person at my own fight party). The second time I watched it, I was paying closer attention to Maidana, and I noticed a few general improvements in Maidana as a fighter, no doubt from having trained under Marco Antonio Barrera's old trainer, Rudy Perez:

1. His foot placement and mobility have gotten technically better. Instead of the usual plodding and walking forward he does from time to time, we see more in-stance movement with bent knees and more careful & efficient footwork.

2. His punching form, specifically with combinations, have improved as well. Maidana has always gone to the body and mixed it up in order to catch an opponent off guard and land a bomb, but now he's putting them together with more fluidity and variation. For some reason, he looks faster as well when firing them off, though they land with the same thud.

3. He is starting to develop more patience in his attack, and is boxing behind a jab a bit more often. Out of his usual guard, we see him measuring Morales early in the fight with jabs that he lands, and sometimes feints, in order to set up an overhand right or a charging body attack.

4. His defensive movement is a tad sharper. Maidana eats shots all the time, but he's always made SOME effort to get out of the way of the more foreseeable shots thrown at a distance, and now he seems better at it. Throughout the fight, he takes the opportunity to slip a jab or a straight right, and leap forward into a barrage of wild punches.

Now before anyone starts calling BS, rest assured that I am not in any way saying that Maidana has become an advanced boxer-puncher. Maidana is still wild, still offensively reckless, still defensively basic, and still stagnant to the point that power is a lot of what defines his style and success. The thing is though, many fighters who may have similar natural power don't always make it to the level he has. As the commentators noted, he has to have some sort of basic ring intelligence in order to win, or even land, against fighters who are 100 percent sure what style Maidana is going to bring with him into a fight. The subtle instincts of a slugger like Maidana make all the difference, and improved technical nuances of a puncher like him are worth looking at.

The stylistic differences between Katsidis and Maidana will prove vital to the way the flight plays out:

I noted in Guerrero-Katsidis that Guerrero was very keen on timing single shots straight down the middle, one at a time; feinting, then popping a right jab, or letting go a lead left. Katsidis' lack of swarming head-movement left him with no answer for this, besides the occasional lunge or bull charge forward. He can slip punches taking a step backwards coming at him but not too many coming forward, and all that did was create huge lulls in his offense which allowed Guerrero to take advantage.

Now, though Katsidis has better punching form than Maidana does, Maidana is much trickier. Even though he's categorized as a "dumb" fighter, the instincts he needs to get by which he does have in place allow him to time shots after identifying patterns, and jumping in when his opponent steps back. Guerrero's jab, while very well timed, will not be enough to keep Maidana at bay IF thrown too singularly. Khan's jab was fast, consistent, and pumped out in two's and three's, and Morales switched from using a single jab to throwing more than one, backing him up and getting his punches off (though occasionally he did rock Maidana by stepping into stiff single jabs, but I don't think Guerrero will do this trying to box on the outside.)

Not to mention the fact that Guerrero is a southpaw, and though I'm sure he's going to be turning Maidana and trying to limit his angles while setting up his own position to jab, there is still an open pathway to the body and head which Maidana need only step towards to exploit. This reinforces the idea that one jab at a time is not going to do it, because Maidana will sloppily but effectively slip it and charge towards the next available target, which will be Guerrero's angled head and open lean body. I don't think Guerrero has the footspeed to neutralize Maidana with simply straight shots.

Another important point I noticed was concerning Guerrero's defense. He has good movement and a decent guard, but when he throws his shots (which are often directed downwards due to the usual height difference), he doesn't punch at shoulder level with his chin tucked behind his arm. This is a very overlooked fundamental which Floyd, Pacquiao (more-so) , and lots of others sometimes violate. Obviously, it leaves one open for counters, wild-shots, outside/looping shots, you get the point. Very dangerous habit against Maidana, as we all know.


Ultimately, it will come down to Guerrero's timing, defense, and offensive creativity versus Maidana's awkwardness, animalistic relentlessness, and ability to pick the right shot at the right time. I predict that Maidana, as the natural 140 pounder, will be able to use his style to get the better of Guerrero by the end of the fight. He'll lose a good amount of rounds, but if he doesn't knock Guerrero out, I think he'll have beat him up by the end of the fight, even if he loses a decision. It's a close fight and I'm not 100 percent sure on my prediction, and if Guerrero wins I'll give him a ton of credit.

So, if you care to, re-watch the fights with my thoughts in mind and let me know what you think. Any and all thoughts appreciated. (No trolling please.)

 

Can the people that disagree with me point to some of the finer points I made, and talk about why they think they don't come into play, or affect the dynamic differently? Guerrero is much more sound indeed, but it's the way in which he fights that matters, not how much better he is on paper, which is what I was trying to highlight.

 

Obviously Maidana has the puncher's chance even going into the 12th, but I think this is a fair way to try and find an indicator. Losing one of those rounds, just one, could foreshadow much worse as the fight goes on.

BTW, I like your prediction; I can see Maidana winning a close fight, even if Guerrero makes it to the final bell.

 

The **** is this. Does NOBODY like actual technical talk on the forum anymore?

 

I'd seen Guerrero before, I just wanted to use their last fights as the most up-to-date skill and habit observation. I don't recall those rounds but I will rewatch them, thanks for the shout-out. Valid points; Guerrero isn't bad at turning his opponents and restarting, but he's not that good backing up at all; lacks fluidity and speed on his feet to fight off the back-foot effectively. I wonder how he'll deal with Maidanas lunges.

The height advantage is actually to Maidana by an inch, and the reach to Guerrero by only 3 centimeters. Obviously Guerrero uses distance better, but he's not going to have as big an advantage with that style. I totally agree Katsidis was just fading out there on the outside without putting anything forth early on; this reinforces my earlier point that he lacks swarming head movement necessary to get inside skilled out-fighters. The success he had to the body definitely foreshadows Maidana's opportunities, as he's much less predictable when lunging inside.

I think that against Morales, a lot of people unjustly criticized his work-rate. There were times in the Khan fight that he clearly had to manage his pace to compensate for a poor stamina, but his first signs of tiring against Morales were only in the 11th and 12th, and I think he did enough in those rounds to secure a close decision. I think along with the other improvements I pointed out, I think that his conditioning will probably be up to par for this fight. I like your prediction! Tough fight to call indeed.

 

:good

Those percentages are about the same for me man.