My Thoughts/Analysis & Prediction of Marcos Maidana VS Robert Guerrero

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by Bogotazo, Aug 3, 2011.


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  1. Bogotazo

    Bogotazo Amateur Full Member

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    So what in the dynamics I isolated did you find wrong observations?

    I talk about how Guerrero's jab may not match-up well with Maidana's sloppy but hard-to-time slip-and-lunge style (which is the opposite of Katsidis' predictable and stationary come-forward habits); how he doesn't throw it often in 2's and 3's; how he doesn't punch at defensive shoulder level, thus making him open for counters and outside shots; and while he does have a good right hook, he didn't throw it that much against someone who was wide open for it in Katsidis.

    Also, Maidana's improvements make him even more dangerous, as he is setting things up behind a jab, and is becoming better at identifying patterns and breaking them with shots. Guerrero's outside style is effective, but it seems simplistic. Southpaw jab, straight left, occasional right hook; lots of feints, and lots of turning. I think if Maidana could time Khan on one of his best looking nights, with his superior height, jab, foot-speed, and similar guard, then he can get to Guerrero, who while more cagey and experienced, has less physical gifts and will be going up a more tactically prepared Maidana.

    I mention all those things much better in the original post. Sorry if I'm being obnoxious in constantly referencing my own long-winded breakdown, I just wanted to talk those specific technical points and few seem to engage it when disagreeing with my prediction, making it hard for me to really address them.
     
    Bogotazo, Aug 8, 2011
    Bogotazo, Aug 8, 2011
    #31
  2. saul_ir34

    saul_ir34 Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    This is going to be a great fight. I was excited from the moment i heard about it.

    Its pretty tough to call actually. This is the type of fight i love where i cant make a solid decision.

    So far im thinking Guerrero but then again Maidana is always live and more skilled than he gets credit for. This dude stopped Ortiz the WW champion of the world and was very damn close to stopping Khan the number 1 LWW in the world. He is no joke and an unskilled brawler would not have accomplished what Maidana has.

    Guerrero by late stoppage is what i have been leaning on. I just see Guerrero having so much potential and now that his wife is better he seems to just be impressing me more and more. The sky is the limit for this guy. Not to mention he is built to move up. I think he will be bigger than Maidana come fight time.
     
    saul_ir34, Aug 8, 2011
    saul_ir34, Aug 8, 2011
    #32
  3. DDDUUDDDEE

    DDDUUDDDEE Undisputed Ambien (taker) Full Member

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    One thing that I think's underrated about Maidana is his timing, it's pretty great. He's a good counter puncher too.
     
    DDDUUDDDEE, Aug 8, 2011
    DDDUUDDDEE, Aug 8, 2011
    #33
  4. Bogotazo

    Bogotazo Amateur Full Member

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    Thank you! That meas a lot, coming from you. Are you inclined to agree?

    Definitely. As was said, he's had to have gotten this far with more than just grenades for fists.

    My reaction was the same, this fight is definitely a great one and a toss-up; even my isolated pointers could change depending on Guerrero's improvements & preparation; you seem to disagree with the technical points, puttin' any vCash down for this one?
     
    Bogotazo, Aug 8, 2011
    Bogotazo, Aug 8, 2011
    #34
  5. saul_ir34

    saul_ir34 Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    Putting real money on this one. Vcash doesnt do it for me anymore....
    I like to put a little money on boxing. Makes the fight more exciting for me.
    By the way anyone know the betting odds on this fight??

    What do you mean by disagreeing with the technical points?
     
    saul_ir34, Aug 8, 2011
    saul_ir34, Aug 8, 2011
    #35
  6. saul_ir34

    saul_ir34 Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    Oh one other thing.
    When Guerrero fought Yordan and he did get headbutted and cut but he seemed very timid from then on. Its like he didnt know how to fight the same while cut and bloodied. That is one thing that i need to see clarification on.
    Is he one of those fighters that panics when he sees his own blood and things get rough or was he just butted that bad? Which is hard for me to justify. We have seen many warriors take worse beatings and not take a step back.

    If this is the case where he panics when hurt then Maidana wins this. He will have to kill Maidana to get him to take a step back. Maidana will bust him up for sure. Khan who is as good or a better boxer ate alot of leather so we know Guerrero will too.
    Will he panick again when he has blood streaming down his face??
    I hope not because i like this guy and he has a bright future if he has the Mexican heart.
     
    saul_ir34, Aug 8, 2011
    saul_ir34, Aug 8, 2011
    #36
  7. Bogotazo

    Bogotazo Amateur Full Member

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    Guerrero has promise, but you raise a good point about his psychology. He'll already have to be cautious on the outside, and who knows how consistent and effective he'll be if he gets hurt?

    And since you were leaning towards Guerrero, what I meant was, which technical points did you agree/disagree with on the original post. I listed a lot; they're specific and often little things that I think will make all the difference.
     
    Bogotazo, Aug 8, 2011
    Bogotazo, Aug 8, 2011
    #37
  8. Brownies

    Brownies Well-Known Member Full Member

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    First of all, I don't agree that Katsidis is easier to target with a jab. Look at the Mitchell fight or some segments of the Marquez fight. He's not that bad at finding his way inside with some head movements. I see what you mean about the way Maidana comes in, but I still think he's more hittable. I may be wrong on that, but that's my opinion.

    I would not call Guerrero's style simplistic. I'd call it an efficient style. No wasted movement, perfect to dissect your opponent. I'm a fan of that style so maybe that may make him look better to me than it should.

    Also, to the guy who said that Guerrero can't fight of the back foot. I don't expect any of them to fight going back, so I don't see it having any impact. I see them staying at the center of the ring.

    I agree with you on the rest tough, lots of solid points. We just interpret them differently. Good job. You're right about Guerrero's right hook. It's true he could've used it more against Katsidis, so I should not expect him to throw it more against Maidana.

    Good job.
     
    Brownies, Aug 8, 2011
    Brownies, Aug 8, 2011
    #38
  9. Goro

    Goro Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Guerrero UD
     
    Goro, Aug 8, 2011
    Goro, Aug 8, 2011
    #39
  10. I1T2BOX

    I1T2BOX Boxing Addict Full Member

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    If something is for sure is that this fight doesnt get the attention it deserves...


    [ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtlNPcYSeXg[/ame]
     
    I1T2BOX, Aug 9, 2011
    I1T2BOX, Aug 9, 2011
    #40
  11. lufcrazy

    lufcrazy requiescat in pace Full Member

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    Good stuff.

    my micro analysis would be that maidana failed to impress against a cherry picked morales who infact edged the close fight. rg did dominate kats who stylistically is similar to maidana.

    my conclusion is rg will really shine in a dominant display of boxing for a wide ud.
     
    lufcrazy, Aug 9, 2011
    lufcrazy, Aug 9, 2011
    #41
  12. tottenham19

    tottenham19 ESB Masterbro Full Member

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    It's going to be a tough fight for both men. I think Robert will outbox Marcos, but he will have to dig deep to get the decision and survive some rocky moments. I think Maidana will get frustrated early and maybe use some dirty tactics - elbows, headbutts, holding-and-hitting, etc. - which could mess with the focus Robert will need to prevail in this fight.
     
    tottenham19, Aug 9, 2011
    tottenham19, Aug 9, 2011
    #42
  13. I1T2BOX

    I1T2BOX Boxing Addict Full Member

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    This content is protected


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQA0B5Fvr6o&feature=player_embedded"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQA0B5Fvr6o&feature=player_embedded[/ame]
     
    I1T2BOX, Aug 12, 2011
    I1T2BOX, Aug 12, 2011
    #43
  14. PH|LLA

    PH|LLA VIP Member Full Member

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    I'm predicting Maidana to win a late stoppage. He hits hard, he is taller than Guerrero, and his stamina is very good.

    The only way I see Guerrero winning this one is if he staggers Maidana bigtime with a big right hook in the early rounds. I don't expect that to happen although it's definitely a possibility. I think as the fight wears on Maidana will start connecting on Guerrero and Guerrero will not handle this type of power well.
     
    PH|LLA, Aug 12, 2011
    PH|LLA, Aug 12, 2011
    #44
  15. Bogotazo

    Bogotazo Amateur Full Member

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    You really don't see Maidana's slight but important improvements in the rounds he won against Morales, and the vulnerability of Guerrero's guard when in close against Katsidis those few times, or the differences in predictability between a static semi-swarmer like Katsidis and an instinctual tricky slugger like Maidana?

    If Guerrero beats Maidana impressively I will give him a load of credit, because the only one to decisively beat him has been Khan, and he was nearly stopped in that fight.
     
    Bogotazo, Aug 12, 2011
    Bogotazo, Aug 12, 2011
    #45
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