My thoughts on Berto vs. Collazo

I've been quiet about this fight, really thinking about how this is going to play out. This fight has some rather large implications at 147, boxing's deepest division.

I as many of you, have been watching Berto rise up since he turned pro in 2004. Honestly at first, I was not that impressed with him, and I thought he might have chin issues. But over time, he has clearly gotten a lot better. You get the sense that he is just now putting it together. His combos are better, his footwork is getting there, he's more patient, and he's got good pop.

But he really hasn't fought anyone to really test his skills on a championship level.

Enter Luis Collazo.

Now Collazo gets a lot of credit for what he did against Hatton (I thought at worst he should have kept his belt on a draw). I think he has a very tricky southpaw style, he's very slick, and is rather tough. He's been fighting at or near the top level at 147 for years, and has been a titlist. He's only 27, but has a deep level of experience at this point. He could pose problems to anyone in the division, including Berto.

If Berto is to beat Collazo, his footwork is going to have to go up a notch. While it has gotten better, he can be flatfooted at times, and this plays right into Collazo's hands, as Collazo will be able to counter and move out of the way and keep Berto off balance. Berto must also get his right hand going early, upstairs and down. The right is the key to the southpaw style, and if he is going to win, he must land it. If he can land it with regularity, Collazo will have problems, as Berto will be able to throw more punches behind it as the fight goes on.

If Collazo is to win, he must put Berto off balance early and keep him there. If Berto cannot find the footing to throw consistently, Collazo can get him. Collazo also must get to Berto's body early and often. Berto has only gone over 10 rounds 3 times, Collazo well over 10. If Collazo can get a persistent body attack while keep Berto off balance, Collazo can step up his attack late, where Berto may be more vulnerable, and his questionable chin can really be tested.

As far as a prediction, I am going to go with Berto on points. I think it is close to a 50/50 fight, but I go with Berto because I think he his rising at the right time, and will perservere through this tough matchup. He has decent power, and if he can pressure Collazo, which I believe he will, that is his real key to victory.

However, I do believe Collazo will go the full 12, and if he follows a strong gameplan, there is no reason he can't win this fight, no reason at all. He must bring Berto's flaws to the surface, and he has the style to do it.

So I got Berto. But who wants it more?:think

Get ****ed up, and Enjoy the fight fellas.:yep:good

 

:good

 

:yep

Jack Daniels is here, and he says hello:hi:

 

My prediction was correct, but I agree that Collazo deserved the win.

 

I am not always right, but when I look at a fight with no bias and really look at the styles, I can break it down pretty well. Have no experience with boxing excect as a fan, and I am good with strategy.

 

I had DLH over Pac, Dawson over Tarver, and Cotto over Margo, but I knew the outcome was a very real possibility, and I posted as much.

As far as Hopkins vs Dawson, I actually think if the Hopkins who fought Pavlik shows up against the best Dawson, Hopkins style would prove to be too much for Dawson.

BHOP is good with the southpaw style, and he would be able to take Dawson's jab away. Dawson, even though he is talented with good speed, footwork, and power, has defensive liabilities that Hopkins would surely exploit.

Dawson is open for right hands as Glen Johnson proved, and BHOP signature punch is that sneaky right hand. If BHop adds the jab to that mix, Dawson is in very serious trouble.

Finally, I don't think Dawson is strong enough mentally to stand up to Hopkins and his tricks. I thought Johnson beat him clearly, and if he is unable to land on BHOP, he will become frustrated and be open for punches.

BHOP with a decisive win, possible late stoppage.