My thoughts on how Cotto can use the tools at his disposal to beat Mayweather

This was in response to another poster's question, and a fulfillment of a promise I made to another poster to write up an objective breakdown of Cotto's potential strengths. I see a lot of people here saying that Miguel has "0" chance, which I personally find absurd. I think any fighter on the right night can snatch a victory against all odds, and the right game-plan can make many one-sided fights on paper turn out to be much more competitive in real life. I usually like celebrating fighters and their abilities instead of downplaying or insulting them, especially when certain instincts, skills, or characteristics of certain fighters get underrated or overlooked by superficially dismissive boxing fans. I completely understand why people favor Floyd, but this is just something I'd write up for those that actually like to discuss boxing and can recognize what goes on in a ring beyond the obvious.

Nut-huggers, fanboys, & ignorant posters need not reply.

Relying solely on the jab isn't going to win him the fight, but it is a way in which he can set up his offense. I've often mentioned Floyd has a habit of leaning and/or walking straight back when reacting to punches, and that's why a good jab and sometimes a straight right behind it work so well in making him retreat. Cotto has to be relaxed when he pressures, much like he was against Foreman, and efficiently control the center of the ring while cutting off exit routes and applying pressure (this is where I think Castillo, for all of his gamesmanship, failed in the rematch). I don't think Floyd can "run" from Cotto all 12 rounds, and I don't think that's his plan. When Floyd is sizing him up and timing him early, Cotto must press. The fight will inevitably end up on the inside; Floyd is sharper on the inside, but Cotto is more destructive and will have a physical advantage. One thing I notice a lot of fighters do when they attack Floyd is smother their own offense when they tag him, instead of calmly picking their shots and setting up combinations that are more difficult to anticipate. Cotto on the offensive is verry used to taking advantage of such a dynamic; he has shown much improved balance and a much tighter guard, which will help him in the clinch.

Pressing and then backing off is a good way to confuse Floyd as well. Turning southpaw while coming forward and then baiting Floyd when backing out to the center again is something I'd try to do to walk him into a left hand as he tries to land a response to win the round. Breaking rhythm is important, and switching stances without giving Floyd time to completely adjust to a southpaw stance is a great way to give fresh new looks and open up new offensive opportunities. Cotto has great timing when he turns southpaw at range, and up close, it helps him get leverage into his left-side punches.

Floyd is probably eventually going to come forward, as most guess, and this is an opportunity Cotto has to set further traps. Floyd's pressure is very controlled, and consists of carefully picked punches as he cuts off the ring. The difference we would see between Ortiz and Cotto would be that Cotto can fight off the back-foot fairly well with accuracy and balance, has great lateral movement, and isn't afraid to push back when pressured. Working off the jab while never giving Floyd an angle to plant himself and land hard punches would allow Cotto to unexpectadly become the ring general, and would give him the opportunity to again disrupt his rhythm by rushing Floyd and surprising him with hard, quick three punch combinations before restarting his movement. Assuming Cotto can win 4 of the first 6 with the offensive activity in first game-plan, being prepared with this adjustment would help him steal further rounds and land the more eye-catching blows. If turning southpaw in spots worked in the first game-plan, then doing it again in the second half might be beneficial as well, depending on what look Floyd is giving him. Pushing Floyd right back and making him taste discouraging punches may work just as well. We all realize Floyd has the superior accuracy and defense up close and has the much faster punches, but at the very least, if Cotto can't anticipate Floyd's punches, he can throw with Floyd, and it wouldn't surprise me if doing so repeatedly taxed Floyd much more than it damaged Miguel.

The trick is to maximize Cotto's dimensions, which are far more capable than anyone is giving him credit for. It's a difficult task and I understand completely why people favor Floyd, but to say Cotto can't beat Floyd without the right set of game-plans, hungry mentality, and physical preparation is absurd. Anyone has a chance to upset anyone else, and considering this test can easily be seen as his stiffest challenge since DLH, an upset would not be the strangest thing to happen in the sport of boxing.

 

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I agree with your analysis, but I think Cotto taking command of the center might actually work out for him. That way he can press when he wants, and back out instead of lingering or reaching, and going back to a jab; or, if Floyd gets aggressive, in your words "treat him like a puncher"; I liked the way you put that! Floyd's power is respectable, but it's his accuracy and repetitive success in finding the mark with sharp punches that is dangerous. Treating Floyd like his shots are dangerous actually leads to other dynamics that could help find success for Cotto; not giving him angles, keeping him off balance, getting off shots hard and quick before restarting, etc.

 

I think Cotto has enough left to give us one great performance, if he cares enough to give it his all. I think the Margarito rematch rekindled his fire.

Good point about the focus on his left from Floyd. If Miguel neglects it, it could be a long night for him. His right hand was great before surgery, and he used it more and more, if you look at the progression from Foreman to Mayorga to Margarito. He had Margarito's head rocking back from solid 1-2's more than he ever did in the first fight, I think. I figure for this fight, they'll make sure he uses it. A right hand over the top is not a bad punch to throw at Floyd, if you time it right and don't reach. Wouldn't it be great to see this again?

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It wasn't just speed that bothered Cotto though, it was the angle at which the punches were coming from, as well as the speed and power on them. Cotto's flawed crouch got him in trouble against Judah's lightning bomb of an uppercut which came from his southpaw stance from beyond his range of vision, and Pacquiao continuously tagged Cotto by swiftfully turning him and walking him into punches from positions he couldn't properly gauge in time. Not only is Cotto's stance, guard, and balance in much more technical harmony now, but Floyd doesn't have the one-punch power or volume to ever hurt Cotto enough to finish him IMO. Mosley was just as fast, and a much heavier puncher; Cotto was able to neutralize that speed very well with his boxing skill and his timing, which above all else has been key to his success. Faster fighters can be timed, neutralized, set-up, smothered, hurt, and confused as much as any other fighter with any special attribute. It is by no means an easy task for Cotto to do so against Floyd, but there is much more to what is going to be going on between those two than just "speed" and to suggest you have to match his speed just doesn't ring true to the game. On top of that, Cotto has never been knocked unconscious, and the only way for Floyd to stop him would be to open an enormous cut on Cotto's face and keep hitting that same shot over and over, or pour on an incredibly uncharacteristic amount of volume. Neither of those things is likely to happen without Floyd compromising his own defense.