My thoughts on how Cotto can use the tools at his disposal to beat Mayweather

Agree. Oscar proved that a world-class jab is the key to beating Mayweather. A world-class jab turns Mayweather from a box-mover into a mover, but he doesn't have the range, and at this stage of his career, the flat-out exploosiveness to box in that style and be at his very best.

Two problems here. 1) Cotto doesn't have the variety in his jab that Oscar does and timing/creating angles for class counters on predicable punches is specifically what Mayweather does. 2) Cotto's feet. Cotto just doesn't have the dynamism in his feet that will allow him to get off the jab and make the necessary moves to counter-act what Mayweather brings back. Nor does he have the headmovement. So he's trapped trying to prevent Mayweather's counter-punches with a high, static guard. That is bad.

:good

Agree. The evidence is that Mayweather's legs can't carry him for 12 rounds anymore even if he wanted to box like this. The ideal plan is to force him to try to box like this. Oddly enough, this was also the best plan versus Muhammad Ali in his comeback years. I think that is where the similarities between the two men end but it's interesting.

I'm going to stick my neck out a fair bit here and say that Cotto's physical advantage won't be all that. I consider Mayweather a beast of a welter in terms of strength and I think we saw that against Sugar who once again proved himself a hugely strong WW against Margarito, not long before that fight. This is why I think this fight might be a thrashing instead of a competitive decision. I think that Cotto will have his moments inside but I think that he is going to get out-fought there, and then, late, handled.

Cotto's problem here is again his feet and balance (which are good but not dynamic) in relation to Floyd's method. Floyd is a horrible disruption inside and forces opponents off balance both by smothering and moving. The problem is, when Cotto is presented with chances to hit the body inside, he's going to have to go all in - he can't **** about. This means he'll be winging shots and getting countered, badly. He's going to get hurt.

Cotto's no coward, but he doesn't have "elite heart", for want of a better phrase. I think Mayweather will break him and leave him planless.

I'm going to disagree here. I don't think fighters are smothering their own work - I think that Mayweather's positioning and defence are doing that for them. Cotto, essentially, is stalking in this fight, as you've pointed out. Mayweather's genius is that he allows the stalker to attain his dream position and then makes himself difficult to hit clean anyway (thinking about it, this is another similarity with Ali mark II...) which is always confusing and demoralising. Here, you want that world class jab or you want dynamism in your footwork. The first is something Cotto doesn't have, the later is something he definitely doesn't has, but is Pacquiao's main shot if they should actually find a way to make that fight.

Indeed - jab again. There are other ways to do it and you are pointing out a few here, but they are not in the cut. You have to be winning/have a winning strategy for these walkaways to prove really affective IMO.

I'd definitely back your southpaw idea because anything that runs interference is great - but I think Mayweather will figure it out.

 

Let's get married.

 

:good

 

Very true, and I think that Cotto proved himself the equal of Margarito at 154, something he didn't do at 147. But I think Mayweather proved himself as strong as Sugar, who was clearly stronger than Margarito at WW. Of course, it's not always about raw strength, balance is crucial too, but I'm happy naming Mayweather the stronger man when it comes to it. He won't conest all of the time of course.

I thin it's a fair point to make, but Castillo and Judah are doing this because they were getting hit otherwise. It's a flat-out choice that you need to make, I don't see one as being "better" than the other. Given Cotto's limited speed and diversity of foot i'm not convinced he's better backing up. It's something i'd think very very hard about before assigning it as strategy. At the end of the day though, he's got to take some risks to get something here so your advice might be best. I'll say this - it would work well in round 1 but i'm not sure he'd like what he'd be getting in round 7.

You're a very good poster Bogotazo, I wish there were more like you in here. You should come see us in Classic at some point. Not that I own it or anything

 

I think so too. This is the type of thing he didn't do when he was a kid. It's funny how as your physical gifts start to give way you get so good at just "doing boxing" because of this kind of thing you don't always slip that far that fast if you have sound technique. I think Floyd is going to be OK for a couple more years because of this type of thing. Pac will age more quickly.

I'm so frustrated at Arum. Then again, back when Pacquiao would have had a better chance, Mayweather was perhaps the problem, not Arrum. These guys know their business.