My thoughts on how Cotto can use the tools at his disposal to beat Mayweather

AnthonyW · Apr 17, 2012

I haven't added much to this thread, Bogo. But these are my thoughts from SS's thread :good

AnthonyW said: ↑

Well thought out post TS.

The problem I see for Cotto is, he likes to use plenty of movement it seems nowadays (even more so than usual). Now, this is very, very effective against someone who fights in straight lines, and will literally follow you off the edge of a cliff to try hit you (Margarito)...you can just bring someone like that on to shots, then back pedal/regain composure. However, Mayweather is excellent at cutting the ring off with minimal movement/wasted energy on his part. This spells trouble for Cotto if he is to fight this way, and we assume Mayweather is going to continue his current fighting style. Mayweather, whilst conserving energy can make his opponent waste energy unnecessarily. Like someone mentioned, Cotto can telegraph certain punches before he throws them, and this may not be so obvious inside the ring to certain opponents...but when up against guys like Mayweather and Pacquiao, they will click on to this straight away.

This is how I see Mayweather winning. Almost immediately, Mayweather will try to show his strength and stand his ground, using Cotto's jab to time his right hand. He will once again show minimum foot movement, but backpedaling when necessary. He will try to get Cotto to start showing more movement rather than have Cotto trying to trade punches with him. Once Mayweather has Cotto in this position, he will cut the ring off (I don't believe Cotto will completely backpedal, I expect him to show some really good lateral movement but I'll get into that)...he will be looking for Cotto to telegraph shots, he will be looking for and timing Cotto as he resets. Expect Mayweather to catch Cotto when Cotto is not expecting...for example, when he could usually take his time with certain opponents, expect Mayweather to jump on him and catch him with a stinging shot or two. I can see Mayweather catching Cotto with the kind of shots he caught Mosley with, clean, head-snapping right hands. I don't see a stoppage, but I see Mayweather taking an impressive UD.

Now for Cotto.

I think Cotto can have some success in this bout, mainly due to two things. It seems Mayweather wants to be impressive in the ring, and Cotto is on a massive high it seems (he is back in love with the sport).

Now for Cotto to have success IMO, he can't give too much ground to Mayweather early...he needs to stick in the middle circle for as long as possible, showing plenty of lateral movement (he needs to fight in circles conserving plenty of energy if possible). He needs to stick that jab out, double and triple it like the TS said, but also mix it up...stick a powerful jab in Mayweather's face, but immediately following it up with a right hand in which he pivots on. Diaz has been using plenty of amateur foot drills it seems, and his footwork was excellent against Margarito, whether Margarito was plodding or not. He needs to use the lateral movement he showed against Margarito, and use it to place him in an attacking position. Like my example above, shoot a stiff jab off, pivot on the right hand (something Mayweather may not expect)...then get a second phase in immediately, whether it be another 1-2, switching from head to body, or placing himself in a position to get his left hook to the body/head on target.

He can't become predictable, fighting the way he did against Margarito was impressive, but it was mainly based off one main gameplan. Show Margarito movement, tag him with combinations, then reset self (impressive none the less). He shouldn't take too long to reset himself (although he has always done this) he shouldn't be admiring his work because before he knows it, he has been hit with a straight right-left hook.

Intriguing bout IMO, one I have been looking forward to for a while. I see a Mayweather UD though. Two of my favourite boxers, can't wait
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Leon · Apr 17, 2012

Bogotazo said: ↑

To keep building on some of the dynamics I outlined and continue to outline in the thread, here's a reference to the most intriguing training clip I've seen so far:

Here are some other insightful posts from the same thread:

From another thread:

What do you guys think? Is it consistent with the alternate plan I and others recommended or criticized? Keep this thread nut-hug-free.
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What Cotto(e) and his trainer have shown about their training is in line with how Cotto(e) has been fighting recently. I watched the margo(e) fight again last night and saw that Cotto(e) wasn't so eager to fight inside. What he would do is push Team Mexico back to create space for throwing flurries at mid-range.

The training they're doing is smart for two reasons.

1) Cotto(e) always ends up boxing whenever **** gets tough for him. It's what he instinctively resorts to, you can see it in all of his big fights. Why not train him for what he'll end up doing?

2) Floyd has made it clear he doesn't want to give up ground in this fight. We can make an educated guess and figure that he'll be coming forward to apply his low volume pressure. He did quite a bit of inside fighting when sparring Cotto(e) stan numero uno Omar. Cotto(e) wasn't so inside fighting happy against margo(e) and would use shoving or clinching to limit the attacks at that range. What we know about Floyd is he doesn't get ****ed with at close quarters.

I see Floyd coming forward earlier than you see it happening. He'll jab with Cotto(e)

tolomei · Apr 17, 2012

You should not take anything away from the sparring session with Omar....that footage would not be put out if there was even the slightest possibility it could help cotto's camp gameplan. The Floyd that shows up May 5 will be a lot different.

BewareofDawg · Apr 17, 2012

Cotto will not be able to dictate anything in this fight. He will be 3 steps behind Floyd the entire time. He is just completely out-gunned in this fight. He doesn't have the sting in his shots to hurt Floyd, he doesn't have the defense to make Floyd miss, he doesn't have the footwork to out maneuver Floyd, he doesn't have the handspeed to counter Floyd, he doesn't have the strength to back Floyd up. He has nothing to his advantage in this fight.

r1p00pk · Apr 17, 2012

Leon said: ↑

What Cotto(e) and his trainer have shown about their training is in line with how Cotto(e) has been fighting recently. I watched the margo(e) fight again last night and saw that Cotto(e) wasn't so eager to fight inside. What he would do is push Team Mexico back to create space for throwing flurries at mid-range.

The training they're doing is smart for two reasons.

1) Cotto(e) always ends up boxing whenever **** gets tough for him. It's what he instinctively resorts to, you can see it in all of his big fights. Why not train him for what he'll end up doing?

2) Floyd has made it clear he doesn't want to give up ground in this fight. We can make an educated guess and figure that he'll be coming forward to apply his low volume pressure. He did quite a bit of inside fighting when sparring Cotto(e) stan numero uno Omar. Cotto(e) wasn't so inside fighting happy against margo(e) and would use shoving or clinching to limit the attacks at that range. What we know about Floyd is he doesn't get ****ed with at close quarters.

I see Floyd coming forward earlier than you see it happening. He'll jab with Cotto(e)
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wow I never really even realized thatatsch smart of diaz to notice this if thats the reason for training his boxing.

Xplosive · Apr 17, 2012

Liu Jian said: ↑

A fanboy seems to be anyone who thinks Mayweather has most of the advantages in this fight.

Imo, Mayweather's 5 inch reach advantage and superior conditioning will be key in this fight. Cotto isn't as slow as some people have said, but his head movement isn't great. I see him eating an awful lot of straight right hands in this fight. Of course Cotto will lands jabs, but enough to stop Mayweather landing his right? Nope. And eventually Cotto will be disinclined to throw as many jabs which will lead to him trying to get close and land power shots.

For me the Hatton fight showed how good Mayweather is on the inside against shorter fighters with shorter arms, and with his upper body movement he should be able to cope with Cotto there aswell.

I still think that is Cotto's best chance though. Get on the inside and throw a lot of left hooks to the body like he used to. If he tries to turn this into a chess match he will be thoroughly outboxed unless he is able to hurt Mayweather early on to the extent that Floyd never fully recovers.
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No, that would be called a realist. Floyd DOES have most advantages over Cotto.

Having said that, at least the thread started offered a good, logical arguement. That was a better post than 98% of the bull**** I see on the general forum.

Bogotazo · Apr 17, 2012

AnthonyW said: ↑

I haven't added much to this thread, Bogo. But these are my thoughts from SS's thread :good
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Great post. I agree with pretty much everything said. Great point about circling around conservatively when moving laterally; that's exactly what made the difference between his footwork in the first fight and in the rematch. Being unpredictable with his punching arsenal is important, as well as with his game-plan; it looks like they're looking to walk him into counters, but won't be afraid to push him back and punish him when they get the chance to press. I think, as everyone, Floyd is going to come forward and cut the ring off, which as you said he does very well, but I think he'll spend the first few rounds feeling him out first and seeing what he's going to throw. He'll try to adapt like he did against Ortiz, I think.

Leon said: ↑

What Cotto(e) and his trainer have shown about their training is in line with how Cotto(e) has been fighting recently. I watched the margo(e) fight again last night and saw that Cotto(e) wasn't so eager to fight inside. What he would do is push Team Mexico back to create space for throwing flurries at mid-range.

The training they're doing is smart for two reasons.

1) Cotto(e) always ends up boxing whenever **** gets tough for him. It's what he instinctively resorts to, you can see it in all of his big fights. Why not train him for what he'll end up doing?

2) Floyd has made it clear he doesn't want to give up ground in this fight. We can make an educated guess and figure that he'll be coming forward to apply his low volume pressure. He did quite a bit of inside fighting when sparring Cotto(e) stan numero uno Omar. Cotto(e) wasn't so inside fighting happy against margo(e) and would use shoving or clinching to limit the attacks at that range. What we know about Floyd is he doesn't get ****ed with at close quarters.

I see Floyd coming forward earlier than you see it happening. He'll jab with Cotto(e)
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Good points. Cotto definitely benefits from being able to implement his instinctive "plan B" with much more dimensio. I think Floyd does plan to fight on the inside a lot. The question is, can he press a fight inside? We all know he can fight when attacked there, but as a pressure fighter, he doesn't exactly smother, he throws at range; he's not aggressive enough for that, and thus far, he hasn't needed to be. I know you and I are both interested to see just how good Floyd is at forcing a fight on the inside if his opponent doesn't oblige him. If Floyd plays defensive for the first two rounds and cedes ground to Cotto, Miguel better not fall into the trap of thinking he can simply have his way there and get overaggressive like so many fighters do.

It's funny you mention those last rounds of the Margarito rematch, because I wanted to re-watch them before passing out. I want to examine the clinchwork and the pressure against the ropes Cotto worked on then. In a post-fight interview he said he was trying to pace himself for the later rounds and didn't seem bothered by Margarito's punches (at least not nearly as bothered as the first fight.) I'll look again and reference back to it.

BewareofDawg said: ↑

Cotto will not be able to dictate anything in this fight. He will be 3 steps behind Floyd the entire time. He is just completely out-gunned in this fight. He doesn't have the sting in his shots to hurt Floyd, he doesn't have the defense to make Floyd miss, he doesn't have the footwork to out maneuver Floyd, he doesn't have the handspeed to counter Floyd, he doesn't have the strength to back Floyd up. He has nothing to his advantage in this fight.
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We'll see on May 5th. As far as I can see, he hits harder, has the heavier jab, and will be the first opponent that will be at least somewhat prepared to respond to Floyd's pressure with an effective lateral defense & offense; far from nothing. Floyd is favored for a reason, but nothing seals the deal until they fight.

JDK · Apr 17, 2012

I'm still not in the least bit interested in this fight. But for the sake of conversation, have you checked out Cotto vs Malignaggi, Bogotazo?
Not a bad fight at all. I remember that fight and it's one of the main reasons why I can't see Cotto pulling a W on his next fight. Not that Malignaggi and Mayweather are clones of each other, but they do use distance very similarly.

Bogotazo · Apr 17, 2012

JDK said: ↑

I'm still not in the least bit interested in this fight. But for the sake of conversation, have you checked out Cotto vs Malignaggi, Bogotazo?
Not a bad fight at all. I remember that fight and it's one of the main reasons why I can't see Cotto pulling a W on his next fight. Not that Malignaggi and Mayweather are clones of each other, but they do use distance very similarly.
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I have checked that fight (a while ago), but I'll review it since you brought it up and it's not a bad general stylistic reference. I had been meaning to, thanks for reminding me.

Not sure if you read some of my points over but I'd think they'd at least spark a little interest for non-believers :nut Cotto has at least a better chance than most of Floyd's recent opponents. You need a balance of strategic capacity and sheer physical capability, and Cotto has a more functional mix of those two elements than Ortiz, JMM, Mosley, and Hatton.

Boxing Fanatic · Apr 17, 2012

people who think cotto has a better chance than floyds previous opponents r smoking some good shamrock. there is a reason y floyd is fighting him. there aint nobody better at cherry picking than floyd

Bogotazo · Apr 17, 2012

Boxing Fanatic said: ↑

people who think cotto has a better chance than floyds previous opponents r smoking some good shamrock. there is a reason y floyd is fighting him. there aint nobody better at cherry picking than floyd
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He's smarter than Ortiz, younger than Mosley, bigger than Marquez, and more versatile than Hatton. Some cherries gotta be bigger than the others at some point.

Hotsauce · Apr 17, 2012

Bogotazo said: ↑

He's smarter than Ortiz, younger than Mosley, bigger than Marquez, and more versatile than Hatton. Some cherries gotta be bigger than the others at some point.
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true, true, true, true, and true.

rodney · Apr 17, 2012

Forget it.
Whatever he does, Floyd will be much better as always.
Doesnt belong in the same ring.
Cotto is coming in for a beat down.

Capitan · Apr 17, 2012

Bogotazo said: ↑

He's smarter than Ortiz, younger than Mosley, bigger than Marquez, and more versatile than Hatton. Some cherries gotta be bigger than the others at some point.
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Damn good points!!!

MAIN · Apr 17, 2012

Bogotazo said: ↑

This was in response to another poster's question, and a fulfillment of a promise I made to another poster to write up an objective breakdown of Cotto's potential strengths. I see a lot of people here saying that Miguel has "0" chance, which I personally find absurd. I think any fighter on the right night can snatch a victory against all odds, and the right game-plan can make many one-sided fights on paper turn out to be much more competitive in real life. I usually like celebrating fighters and their abilities instead of downplaying or insulting them, especially when certain instincts, skills, or characteristics of certain fighters get underrated or overlooked by superficially dismissive boxing fans. I completely understand why people favor Floyd, but this is just something I'd write up for those that actually like to discuss boxing and can recognize what goes on in a ring beyond the obvious.

Nut-huggers, fanboys, & ignorant posters need not reply.

Relying solely on the jab isn't going to win him the fight, but it is a way in which he can set up his offense. I've often mentioned Floyd has a habit of leaning and/or walking straight back when reacting to punches, and that's why a good jab and sometimes a straight right behind it work so well in making him retreat.
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, much like he was against Foreman, and efficiently control the center of the ring while cutting off exit routes and applying pressure (this is where I think Castillo, for all of his gamesmanship, failed in the rematch). I don't think Floyd can "run" from Cotto all 12 rounds, and I don't think that's his plan. When Floyd is sizing him up and timing him early, Cotto must press. The fight will inevitably end up on the inside; Floyd is sharper on the inside, but Cotto is more destructive and will have a physical advantage. One thing I notice a lot of fighters do when they attack Floyd is smother their own offense when they tag him, instead of calmly picking their shots and setting up combinations that are more difficult to anticipate. Cotto on the offensive is verry used to taking advantage of such a dynamic; he has shown much improved balance and a much tighter guard, which will help him in the clinch.

Pressing and then backing off is a good way to confuse Floyd as well. Turning southpaw while coming forward and then baiting Floyd when backing out to the center again is something I'd try to do to walk him into a left hand as he tries to land a response to win the round. Breaking rhythm is important, and switching stances without giving Floyd time to completely adjust to a southpaw stance is a great way to give fresh new looks and open up new offensive opportunities. Cotto has great timing when he turns southpaw at range, and up close, it helps him get leverage into his left-side punches.

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, as most guess, and this is an opportunity Cotto has to set further traps. Floyd's pressure is very controlled, and consists of carefully picked punches as he cuts off the ring. The difference we would see between Ortiz and Cotto would be that Cotto can fight off the back-foot fairly well with accuracy and balance, has great lateral movement, and isn't afraid to push back when pressured. Working off the jab while never giving Floyd an angle to plant himself and land hard punches would allow Cotto to unexpectadly become the ring general, and would give him the opportunity to again disrupt his rhythm by rushing Floyd and surprising him with hard, quick three punch combinations before restarting his movement. Assuming Cotto can win 4 of the first 6 with the offensive activity in first game-plan, being prepared with this adjustment would help him steal further rounds and land the more eye-catching blows. If turning southpaw in spots worked in the first game-plan, then doing it again in the second half might be beneficial as well, depending on what look Floyd is giving him. Pushing Floyd right back and making him taste discouraging punches may work just as well. We all realize Floyd has the superior accuracy and defense up close and has the much faster punches, but at the very least, if Cotto can't anticipate Floyd's punches, he can throw with Floyd, and it wouldn't surprise me if doing so repeatedly taxed Floyd much more than it damaged Miguel.

The trick is to
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, which are far more capable than anyone is giving him credit for. It's a difficult task and I understand completely why people favor Floyd, but to say Cotto can't beat Floyd without the right set of game-plans, hungry mentality, and physical preparation is absurd. Anyone has a chance to upset anyone else, and considering this test can easily be seen as his stiffest challenge since DLH, an upset would not be the strangest thing to happen in the sport of boxing.
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exactly, highlighted the points that extremely agreed on.

miguel's mindframe seems to be in a good position now than it has ever been for a good while, with his new trainer n the tony redemption

while i disagree with many posters here talking about getting at the body, i agree with how you mention him boxing intelligently and settin up lil floyd, however, while this method could work, seeing as how it is boxing, only way i see miguel winning is by knock out, (no way does he wint on the cards) and unless he could connect like how he did against ricardo, i'm not too sure

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My thoughts on how Cotto can use the tools at his disposal to beat Mayweather

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