My thoughts on how Cotto can use the tools at his disposal to beat Mayweather

boxing's geniuses

 

You also have to consider that this wasn't a drained Oscar and hardly anyone below 154 ever hurt him. He traded shot after shot with a prime Mosley and wasn't bothered initially by Hopkins punches.

 

This entire thread has been a pleasure to read. Filled with great insight, debates, and technical breakdowns. Really been a breath of fresh air for the forum.

Bogotazo...fight is less than 24 hours away. You making an official pick on this one? :hey

 

No, man...the amount of analysis you've written here beats a basic prediction based on a few cliche sentences any day. I'm going to be looking for a lot of the things mentioned in this thread tomorrow.

...I can't wait for this fight. The bell can't come any sooner. Hopefully Cotto shocks the **** out of (mostly) everybody.

 

More dynamic, but can he implement that variety against a man with greater physicality? I mean, Oscar probably has more of a chance to out-box Floyd than Cotto would. So I don't see how Cotto's aptitude in other areas is all that relevant assuming Floyd hasn't slowed done substantially overnight.

Floyd is getting rather overrated on the inside. When he has displayed or shown a great comfort in-fighting? Wrestling in the clinches, and elbowing is not a good enough display. They just further prove that he doesn't want to fight there.

I would be surprised if Cotto could turn Floyd and essentially out-box him. He had enough trouble trying to out-box Mosley. I did not think he looked that sensational turning Margo, who is essentially just a name at this point of his career after the brutal losses and inactivity lately. Is Cotto really that quick of foot and hand to turn an initiating Floyd. Despite being seemingly outgunned in height, reach, speed, timing, not to mention all the other facets of boxing ability. Seems like a lot to ask for. Now if Cotto uses angles and turns Floyd while forcing Floyd on the defensive. I think he could have a chance to capitalize on winning rounds on activity. His best shot, though is through a stoppage and that's the best way to achieve one in my opinion.

 

10-2 Mayweather. It could even be wider.

Remember, I am a big Cotto fan. I just don't see it. A few years ago, I believe Cotto's youthfulness would have been more suited. All of Cotto's improvements are going to seem rather futile against a more skilled technician like Floyd. Think of it in these terms. Frazier tried boxing and moving (Way past his prime) against Foreman in their second meeting so to some extent but ultimately couldn't win. The dynamic of lateral movement; a more cautious in out approach wasn't going to be of success against a monster puncher. The point of that analogy is to say Cotto has improved and that these dimensions have meaning, but won't be applicable against Floyd in my view. Feinting, backing Floyd up, pressuring him, mixing up his work to the head-body, out-working Floyd, etc. These are the keys to winning. Mixing it up with angles and movement can work but only in small increments. You can try to use angles while attacking. That would be the perfect balance in trying to disrupt Floyd IMHO.

 

Maybe, but the point about Oscar was that he at least had the physicality to even try implementing, at least to greater success than Cotto would to try a Margo II strategy again in my view. Also, let's put in context that we're talking about Margarito here. Not just a past it Margo but one with a bad eye. I think Cotto looked good, and showed good things (Counter rights, 1-2's, clinching, etc) but I think that performance has been a little overrated.

I disagree with this. I don't think Floyd out-fight Hatton on the inside. Sure, he can neutralize you with his clinching and do some damage. Ultimately, his stance and the position of his feet don't allow him the lower center of gravity to dish most of the damage. He does have a ton of skill there, no doubt. I think we could take note how Cortez was rather generous in allowing Mayweather to make the fight rough on the inside with clinches, not actual punches.

Where do you think Castillo out-fought Floyd? I would say he did on the inside (As well as the mid-range at times). When Castillo realized he couldn't box Floyd early on, after missing by a mile with trying to counter Floyd's jab with a right. He smartly adjusted by feinting and back Floyd near the ropes.

The point is not so much about being on the inside. Floyd would probably move away and avoid that confrontation. If he clinches and spoils, then Cotto should decide to stay. The point was that Cotto should maintain aggression and do his best to keep Floyd near the ropes. A fight in the center of the ring on the outside is not a fight for him.

I can't agree too much with this. While both fighters are past it physically, a pressure fighter generally relies on his physical attributes more so than a boxer-puncher (What Cotto has basically become at 154). I thought Margo's speed of pressure was much slower in the rematch than in 2008. Cotto also wasn't as quick-handed, although he retained a good form of speed and sharpness. Cotto's mobility was about the same, and he did a good job of avoiding the ropes. The fact Margo had lesser speed of pressure helped Cotto in this situation, as well as Margo not punching with quite the same affect due to probably having worn plaster in their first bout. Yes, Cotto showed dimensions and improvements. He used more lateral motion, and turned and shifted directions on Margo greatly, something he did not due the 1st fight. However, Margo did have him in situations on the rope at some moments of the fight. The fact he wasn't punching as hard, and not getting their as fast was more telling than Cotto's improvements, which I am not trying to diminish. This is just my opinion. Again, this sort of improvements seem irrelevant and futile against a master-boxer like Floyd.

Okay, but their effectiveness can also be quite overemphasized because of such opposition.

Well said. You're very right on Floyd being linear. That's part of the reason I think Cotto should feint and attack forward against Floyd. Out-turning a forward-moving Floyd seems more difficult in my estimation. Floyd has been fighting on the front-foot lately. The turning sort of strategy is predicated on the assumption Floyd does so. I am not sure he will, though, I suspect he might try to. The thing is... Mosley never tried to fight Floyd by truly pushing him back. And Ortiz didn't consistently try to press Floyd either, which allowed for Floyd to be more aggressive. When Ortiz was more aggressive with his shots, he actually did force Floyd back to the ropes. Even though Ortiz had minor success boxing against Floyd, he had his most success when he showed aggression. Ortiz also has a body-type and speed to enable implementing a more flexible strategy despite being far less skilled than Cotto IMO. Maybe not though. Either way, it was a stupid strategy for him to ever fight on the back-foot. Something I do not understand.

Okay, I get this. It's going to be hard to employ this tactic if his goal is to also get Floyd on the backfoot and cut the ring off. Do you think Cotto should actually try to control the center of the ring assuming Floyd does fight on the front foot?

This seems overly ambitious. But alas, maybe a perfeect combination or foil for Floyd.

I tend to think the Castillo, DLH, and Ortiz model of fighting most aggressively is the the best type of gameplan. A game-plan predicated on pressure, and lateral movement to cut off the ring. The lateral gameplan against Margo I think will be rather useless and inefficient. Not just because Floyd is the superior, rangier boxer here. But also because Margo is a reckless pressure-fighter who's open to such turning and lateral out-maneuvering. If Cotto turns him, he's going to have to be already in range and moving on a sideways angle that's a combination of shifting that's both forward and lateral. Floyd is not going to ever present himself coming forward as fast or as open as Margo. As you have previous outlined, he does leave himself open when pressing forward, though. But Cotto does not have the speed to capitalize on this in a purely box-move strategy IMO.

Hopefully Cotto surprises us both and wins! Would love to be wrong. :good

 

:thumbsup
Anyone notice on last night's 24/7 Pedro Diaz said "Feint, Move, Explode ... that's the fight right there".

 

I've been saying that's what Cotto needs to do for the last 3 months :happy

So happy when Diaz said it himself, I can boast of my genius :yep

 

Floyd's jab to the body. Wish we saw it more