My thoughts on Mosley vs Margarito

Tonight is actually a fight I have been anticipating for some time. It's the classic matchup of the old king vs. the young lion, and it is a very important for the Welterweight division.

We all know both Mosley and Margarito come to fight, and fight hard. This will be no pity pat contest, and both fighters could be hurt by the other throughout the fight.

I have noticed alot of people on the board (and most in the media) are picking Margarito. The argument is that Margarito is way too big and strong at this point, and Mosley is too old. Many even think Margo will be the first to stop Shane, and make easy work of him.

A look at the style matchup, however, leads me to a different conclusion.

First, let's look at Mosley. Mosley is 37, but he still posseses excellent hand speed, a rock hard chin, and good power. People look at the Mayorga fight, and think that Shane looked old and slow, even with the highlight reel KO at the end. But here is something to consider: Mayorga is actually bigger than Shane and came in the ring with a 10lb weight advantage. When Mayorga fought DLH and Tito, they were both taller and larger than Mayorga, hence the brutal KO's. Mayorga also fought one of the best tactical (if you want to call it that) fights he has fought in some time. He took Mosley seriously, and tried to really push him. Mosley, like the experienced veteran he is, broke him down and took him out.

Let it also be said that Mosley was laid off for almost a year before that fight, and it is easy to see why he had some difficulty.

In order for Mosley to beat Margarito, he must use his considerable speed and footwork, constantly giving Margo different looks and keeping Margo off balance. He should not run from Margo, but pick his spots where to stand and fight. Mosley can bang with anyone at 147, and his handspeed and combination punching could spell big trouble for Margarito, especially when he stands and fights.

Mosley must also stay true to form, and attack Margo's body early and often. The way Margo holds his arms makes hooks to the body somewhat difficult, but he is actually open for jabs and uppercuts to the body. His stomach is right there and open for Shane to hit, but he must commit to the uppercut. The Jab to the body can also open Margo up for more body and head shots, so Shane should use that as well.

One thing I feel Shane has to do at a certain point, many will disagree that it is even possible, is start to back Margo up. Easier said than done for sure as Margo seems to have no reverse gear, but I feel Shane can do it if he uses speed and angles correctly. I says he needs to do this because not only will it impress the judges, but it gives him a psychological edge on Margo. If MArgo finds himself backed up at any point, especially if he is put against the ropes, Margo would be in big trouble and would forced to find a way to respond. The mental game will be important in this fight.

In order for Margarito to win, he must use contant pressure, as is his M.O. But he must also try to stand up a bit straighter when he fights Shane, to try to limit how many times Shane hits him. Margarito has a height advantage over most opponets, but he rarely uses it. He bends down quite a bit, and while he is excellent at digging to the body, it really does open him up to take alot of punishment in return. If he can limit the amount of times Shane punches him, he can then begin to try to push Shane back, becuase if he comes in tall, I believe it will give him even more strength than he normally has, and better balance to land his blows.

Margo must commit to a body attack, and he must do it from the 1st round on. If he wants to take some of that Speed and agility away from Shane, there is his chance. He must also try to cut off the ring on Shane, and it would help if he uses his jab more. A good jab can negate speed and time an opponent, and while no one would accuse Margarito of having a great jab, he used it sparringly against Cotto, and it allowed him to cut the distance and get at him. If he can land a jab on Shane repeatedly, this will make Margo's usual wear and tear game even more of a threat, and it will force Shane to fight, even when he doesn't really want to.

After really looking at the style matchup, I acutally will go against conventional wisdom and pick Shane Mosley to beat Margarito. The percieved advantages that Margo has in size are misleading, not only because he gives up his height, but also because Shane has fought bigger men than Margo, and at a higher weight class.

People also point to the Cotto fights that both had, but again, I don't think these fights say much about how they match up. Margo had a distinct size advantage over Cotto, who is smaller than Mosley, and Cotto had never really fought anyone that big or with that style. He knew how to hit Margo, but he did not know how to stop Margo from hitting him. Cotto got the win over Shane, but Shane could have easily gotten the nod. That fight was so close, again, becuase of style. A guy who boxes and moves can give Mosley problems, but a guy who comes in, defense be damned, and wings shots is made to order for Mosley. Factor in that Mosley is mentally and physically stronger than Cotto, and I think the reasoning that Margo beat Cotto, Cotto Beat Shane, and so Margo will beat Shane is cast into doubt.

Of course, this will be a rough fight, and Margo can win it, but I feel he will not have to just dig deep, but correct some the tactical mistakes I referred to earlier. I really don't think he can just walk at Shane, taking big shot after big shot, round after round. No one, and I mean no one, has ever beaten Shane by allowing Shane to hit him flush all night long. Margo will have to show new dimension to his skill and defense, and I do not believe he posseses at this time.

This is just my analysis, and I could be wrong. But the more I look at it, I just see Shane winning. If Shane follows a strong, consistent gameplan to exploit Margo's technical mistakes (and Nazim Richardson will surely see the things we see and probably some things we don't), he can use his natural ability and advantages in speed and skill to get a convincing win over Margo.

My final pick: Shane goes to the well again to produce a signature win over Margarito by convincing UD. I would say late stoppage, but Margo is so damn tough. We shall see.

Enjoy the first superfight of the year fellas. :yep:good

 

Pavlik would have lost to Hopkins 10 times out of 10, that was a horrible style match up for him.

 

Indeed:happy:happy