Odds Favor Canelo By Decision. WTF???

For the life of me I can't understand why the favored betting odds for the "method of victory" prop bet is Canelo by decision. Per my breakdown video that I posted last week, I am slightly favoring Cotto to win most likely by decision but possibly by late round TKO if he can wear Canelo down and Canelo gets fatigued due to body shots and serious weight cutting which I believe is why he always gasses late. I can see a scenario where Cotto stays in the pocket too long and runs into a big uppercut and/or right hand and gets stopped. What I don't see happening (unless they screw Cotto on the cards) is heavy handed Canelo hitting Cotto enough times over 12 rounds to earn a decision WITHOUT KNOCKING HIM OUT.

What makes people think that the smaller, less durable, chinny Cotto who has been dropped and stopped by smaller men and still makes 154 would be able to sustain enough flush, hard punches from the naturally larger man (Canelo will be over 170 tomorrow to Cotto's 160) for 12 friggin rounds and end up losing on points? If it goes 12 that means that Cotto was able to AVOID that kind of $hit! Cotto has 35 year old legs and I don't see him back-peddling late in a super intense fight like this will be. This won't be like Lara did against Canelo or Oscar did against Tito. He won't do that and subsequently lose a decision. He will either run into something before 12 rounds are up and get stopped up or he will avoid running into something, outbox Canelo and/or stop him late or win a decision. Agree?

 

So you guys agree that the only way Canelo wins on points is if the judges screw him on the cards. That's the only way I see him winning a decision. I don't see him legitimately winning a decision without stopping Cotto because he would need to hit Cotto enough times without knocking him out. Heavy hands+shakey chin=stoppage.

 

Did you read my whole post closely? I am not surprised that Canelo is favored. I am surprised that he is favored to win BY DECISION AND NOT BY KNOCKOUT.

 

So you see Canelo being able to outbox a superior boxer who is more experienced, more versatile, more fleet of foot and has the far better corner over 12 rounds? I don't see it happening unless they screw Cotto on the cards. Canelo barely beat Lara who was a better boxer and the only reason they gave it to him is because Lara ran too much. Cotto will box and be retreating at times but it will hardly be a track meet. Cotto will be aggressive enough and come forward enough to win most of the rounds. He just needs to avoid getting clipped with something big while in the pocket because if he does he will probably get taken out given his inferior punch resistance.

 

I don't know, that's why I put "unless they screw Cotto on the cards".

 

Pacquiao didn't really outbox him, he just beat him with his amazing hand and foot speed, awkward southpaw angles and athleticism. Canelo has none of that. He has good hand speed and throws nice combos but as long as Cotto is careful and doesn't run into a big uppercut or right hand while working inside he wins this one. Canelo is not outboxing him.

Mayweather outboxes everybody. Mosley didn't outbox Cotto. Trout ran into a Cotto lacking in confidence fresh off a loss and without Roach. Given how mental boxing is, you have to factor in both the mental and physical aspects. Cotto right now is looking great physically and is extremely confident under Roach. This Cotto destroys Trout. I'm not convinced that Canelo beat Lara and the only reason Lara didn't win is because he ran a little too much for the judges' liking. This Cotto can beat Canelo with a combination of superior overall boxing skill, jabbing, speed, movement, sporadic, careful aggression, body punching and intelligence.