Been thinking about what the best and worst outcomes for him are. These are his peers in boxing history over the last 65 years, the guys who have beat an ATG (I'm cutting it off around #25) while they held a belt (I'm not counting lineal, like Charles beating shot Louis or Holmes beating shot Ali after retirement comebacks), and also the general place I'd put them in history: Walcott: beat Charles to become undisputed champ around 1951. Defended once successfully (against Charles) then lost to Rocky. Had a horrible record of 51-18-2, but also was robbed against Joe Louis in a title fight. I'd put him around 20-25 as an ATG. Marciano: Beat Walcott. Retired undefeated with highest ko percentage in HW history. Underrated, I put him 3-5, but consensus top 10 at least. Johannson: Beat Patterson, then lost to Patterson in 2 rematches. Never lost to anyone else, beat some good contenders, fringe top 30ATG Liston: Beat Patterson twice, lost to Ali twice. Beat some other top contenders, only lost to a couple other HWs, good claim on being the 2nd best HW of the early to mid 60's. 18-20ATG Ali: Beat Liston (and then later Foreman and Spinks) for titles. Usually considered the GOAT or #2 after Louis. Foreman: Beat Frazier. Beat some other top contenders, lost to Ali. Came back to claim a title as oldest HW ever. Fringe top 10 ATG Leon Spinks: Beat Ali, lost an immediate rematch. Really only showed how shot Ali was. Dreadful record of 26 17 and 3. Lost to most other contenders. Probably the worst HW to beat an ATG champ while champ. Top 100 ATG at best. Michael Spinks: Leon's brother, beat old Holmes coming up from LHW, won rematch. Defended twice against below average contenders, blown out in seconds by Tyson. Mostly should be considered a LHW, but top 50ish ATG as a heavyweight. The Tyson loss and lack of resume at HW beyond Holmes really hurts him. Buster Douglas: Beat Tyson in huge upset as unheralded challenger, lost in first defense to Holyfield, never a factor again. Lost almost as many fights against contenders as he won. Probably second worst HW on this list. Top 75ATG at best. Rid**** Bowe: Beat Holyfield (then narrowly lost, then ko'd Holyfield). Never lost to any other HW, but didn't face most of the other top contenders of his era. Top 25 ATG Holyfield: Beat Bowe (arguably) and Tyson while they were champs. Lost to a bunch of top contenders, but also beat or was competitive against some ATGs. I have him as #18 ATG, some claim he's top 10. Michael Moorer: Narrowly beat Holyfield for belt, later lost to old George Foreman, Holyfield, Tua. Was undefeated when he claimed the belt, but generally didn't have a great record against other top contenders. Top 50 ATG. Lewis: Beat Holyfield (and non ATG fighters) for belts. Arguably GOAT H2H, and definitely top 5 in resume. McCall and Rahman: Beat Lewis while he had belts then lost to him in rematches. I rank Rahman slightly higher but both in top 50 all time. There's a few more debatable ones I could throw in there, but this is a good sample size. If you beat a top 25 ATG while they have a belt, it basically assures you a spot in the top 100 imo, even if you're dreadful apart from that like Neon Leon. Of the 15 HW's above, only 2 are outside of my top 50, 4 are 30-50, 3 are 20-30, 2 are 10-20, and the remaining 4 are fringe or clear top 10. So, on raw odds, Tyson Fury has about a 25% of being at least a fringe top 10 HW and about a 50/50 chance of being in the top 25. I think he has the looks of a modern day Bowe more than anything.
