Official Fight Betting Thread

0.5u more u on Mitch Williams ml +1175
0.15u williams 1-3 +8000

 

0.4u Hammer ml +1961

 

10 pounds Hammer at 12-1

 

Only bet for me was Lara -160.

Hammer has value IMO but I think he is going to lose, I wouldn't bet that fight w/o hedging either the over or Ortiz by Decision.

 

Hammer odds are so long there's no need to hedge, just put a small stake. Of course Ortiz has more power and reach, but 12-1 for 39 yr old vs 31 yr old was too tempting, you can get surprises at older ages e.g. Haye Bellew

 

True, I think Hammer can pull it off especially if Ortiz becomes old overnight. But researching Hammer and Ortiz, I think the most likely scenario will be similar to Hammer-Povetkin. Hammer will realize he isn't going to win and will just fight to survive the fight. I actually think Ortiz by Decision at + is a good bet to make.

 

I can only find 3-1 on Ortiz points. I agree Hammer is durable and this could go distance but 3-1 doesn't pay enough to compensate for all the other potential outcomes.

 

It's possible Ortiz stops Hammer but I'm not sure Ortiz hits harder than David Price, who landed a very nasty uppercut on Hammer. Hammer was down but got up and stopped Price. Price might have no stamina or chin but no one will argue about his punching power. Hammer knows how to survive and he made it very ugly against Povetkin. I think there is a lot of value on him finishing on his feet at a greater than >25% clip (3:1).

But good luck, maybe Hammer can outwork Ortiz, who is coming up on his 75th birthday this year.

 

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you called it right. Hope you made some $$. Also it was a 10 round fight, maybe that increases the % of draws.

 

For the next week Jenkins to beat Garton at +800. Surely the Pexican doesn't deserve to be that big of a favorite.

 

+2.823u overall

Ortiz dec +300, Wood 1-3 +1600, Cuevas goes to distance -110, Romero goes to distance +300 hit, rest miss

 

3.5u Francillette DNB +900
0.7u Franci DEC +1100
0.2u Draw +2500 Francillette
1.5u Ismailov DNB +722
1.87u Vazquez +515
0.35u Draw Jenkins-Garton +2800
1u Smith JR +1100
1u Mendez +1350
0.2u Francilette + Vasquez +3900
0.05u Francilette + Vasquez + Smith + Mendez for 220u

 

The under 4.5 on the Mansour/Efe fight is +100......

 

i think we got a couple live dogs. its still a long shot but here it is.

Robert Guerrero vs Hevinson Herrera
Sergey Kuzmin vs Joey Dawejko