N'Dam is ripe for the long counters. He is open mid punch as he throws his shots a little wide. He plants his feet a little too when he stops moving to throw his combos. He does the exact same thing over and over, Smith I expect will start to time him early. I'm thinking round 5 but we'll see.
To me he is a lot of flash and doesn't sit on any of his shots so he has no real power. We'll see - I think if he starts to get pressed he will elect to get the win by moving rather then try to outright press for the KO - it's his first time fighting in the USA. I think his ego will not allow him to risk loosing his US debut.
Live Bet / Cash Out Opportunity for Bet365: Buatsi Rounds 9-10 is +3300. I have put $50 on it and it pays $1700. Now I don’t necessarily expect this to hit, but if Periban can last 2-3 rounds, I expect the odds for Buatsi rounds 9-10 to change to around the +500 range. At that point Bet365 should offer a cash out of around $400-$500. That would be a payout of 8-1 or 10-1 odds. What do you think? Can Periban last a couple of rounds? I think he is a crafty and durable enough to.
I’m gonna add anther $50 to make it $100 that pays $3,400 and go for the cash out early. If the cash out is 4x my bet after a few rounds that seems like really good value. I’m not a big better so $100 is a decent sized wager for me.
So I just put $50 more on Buatsi rounds 9-10 at +3300 and then noticed that Fights Ends in Rounds 9-10 is +4000. I went to put $50 on that (and then cancel one of my Buatsi Rounds 9-10) but it limited me to $25 so I put that in it. Let’s see if it works or if Periban gets starched in Round 1. I could hedge with Buatsi Round 1 at +300, but I’ll probably just gamble it. Buatsi Rounds 9-10 @+3300 for $100 pays $3400 Fight ends in Rounds 9-10 @ +4000 for $25 pays $1,025. Let’s hope for the cash out!
Yes. It makes no sense. If Buatsi hurts him early, odds might go up massively so better wait for live betting if you want to take 9-10 on Buatsi here. I think it's not out of question that we see an early KD or Buatsi hurting him. If he rocks/hurts him early you can get better prices and he might survive a few rounds after if he's smart and then odds go down after 5-6 rounds and you can cash out the big odds you got early. This should be the strategy in that fight if you want to cash on 9-10. You can decide after he rocks/Hurts him if you take the risk or not, if he's hurt badly better pass on it, if not take it.
I do quite a bit of live betting on boxing. +3300 odds is extremely high and should go down drastically after a couple of rounds (as long as Periban isn’t on the verge of being stopped). Odds change so much, so quickly on Bet365 in play there are spots where the cash out works well. I think this is one of them. Over 3.5 rounds is +150. If this goes over 3.5 rounds I would be cashing out in the +400 or +500 range. That to me is good value. Thanks for the feedback, but I am going to give this a shot.
Do you live bet on Bet365? If you do, you will know how much the odds in boxing fluctuate. I’m playing that angle.
I don't think odds on 9-10 will be like +400 or +500 after 3 or 4 rounds. They have 1-3, 4-6, 7-8, 9-10. If odds on 9-10 are +400 or +500 after 3 or 4 rounds 4-6 has to be like what? No way. I think 7-8 might be around +600 or +700 after 3 or 4. Of course you might be able to cash out for solid profit but don't think it'll be that much. You have to wait probably 6 rounds to make it like +300 till +400. I think it depends on the first 1,2 rounds. If Buatsi hurts/rocks him early, you will definitely get much better prices like +6900 or +7900. Saw that before, quite often. I think it's not unrealistic that he lands good shots early, question is how much shots can Periban take and how good are his surviving skills? Cardio another aspect. I would wait for first round. If nothing happens, odds for 9-10 will be the same like pre fight. If Buatsi rocks him or hurts him you can get MASSIVE prices on that like i mentioned above. I will do it like that. But still, good angle, good luck.
This might blow up in my face but I can't pass up on Ruiz +1000. I expect AJ to win the fight but I do think Ruiz is live here. Ruiz has fast hands and good combos plus I think he is harder to hit clean than people give him credit for. He seems to pick shots off very well with his gloves. And really you could have maybe given him the Parker fight, so really he's undefeated. I do have a couple of problems though, I don't think Ruiz is a big puncher. If he couldn't hurt a very shot Liakovich, I'm not sure he is going to clip AJ. Also, since AJ is the cash cow even if Ruiz outworks him we might get a dubious decision. I'll probably also have something on over 6.5 rounds. I think this goes into the later rounds or maybe even decision. AJ has a lot to lose here and people who think he's going to get in there and be reckless are wrong.
