Official Prediction Thread: Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfBmqlO6rh4

I think this breaks things down nicely for people. Expect to see a lot of this going on, but Mayweather is a bigger, better, more athletic version of Marquez who will capitalize on Manny's mistakes quite a bit. Just IMO. And that video is before ktfo6. Also a great illustration of what a master class technical boxer JMM is.

 

The Floyd that beat Canelo would beat Pac 10 out of 10.

 

Finally, someone who actually can provide a good debate.

How successful has fighter's been feinting Pacquiao? I'm trying to think of circumstances when he's been feinted successfully since Marquez, and I can't come across any. Just a honest question. Also, how much of a factor would it be. Manny was taking some serious shots from the few feints that Marquez did that worked, and he didn't even blink. He kept coming forward. How then would Mayweather get his respect?

I don't think this will be easy. Pacquiao has mastered the art of feints, and uses them a lot to time his opponent's. Mayweather's defense is extremely reactionary. Meaning, he's able to process the very beginning movements from his opponent and avoid the punches. It's an extremely vision and reflex-dependent defense. This works great for fighters who don't feint, but if he's reacting to the smallest of movements from his opponent then this could leave him in a vulnerable position against an opponent, like Pacquiao, who's very fast, very good feinter.

Now, my opinion, I feel Mayweather figuring out timing and rhythm has a lot to do with his mastery of fighting orthodox fighters. It's easier to find the timing and the rhythm of a fighter who fight textbook orthodox because he has ridiculous experience fighting them. However, we've seen Mayweather have more trouble timing an opponent who does something unorthodox because, simply, he hasn't really gained a lot of the experience in that area.

For example, Maidana threw the overhand right very awkwardly. It took Mayweather longer than usual to be able to time the punch. It took till late first fight to get the timing down, where he figured out to drop his entire body using his legs rather than lean and duck away from it. So, this is one example of it taking longer to figure out the timing and rhythm of someone who fights unorthodox.

Now, it's alone hard to time someone who does something unorthodox. However, how much harder would it be for Floyd to time someone who does everything backwards, but with speed. And not just speed...but speed. The speed advantage. A speed that Mayweather has 100% never faced.

Now, you have someone who has incredibly fast hands(takes a little longer to figure out timing, rhythm), who also throws awkward angles (now takes even longer to figure out), and then also does it all backwards.

I'm not saying Mayweather won't figure him out, because I truly believe his greatness will show he can. But, I'm not sure how long it's going to take. He'll usually give a rounds away in the beginning to an opponent so he can figure out their timing, rhythm. But, I don't know if he can do that against Pacquiao. Because, if it takes 5/6 rounds to figure out Pacquiao...now, you're entering the portion of the fight where Pacquiao begins to increase his pace and punch output while you're already down on the scorecards.

It just sounds incredibly difficult, and with Pacquiao's work rate, punch output... I feel Mayweather may find himself down on the scorecards significantly once he finally is able to get his rhythm. Which isn't easy by any means! Getting Pacquiao's rhythm is difficult, for the reasons I stated above, but also because he changes himself a bit every time an opponent begins to catch his timing (this didn't start till after Marquez KO).

Before Marquez did this, it still took him 3/4 fights to get Pacquiao's timing down. Algieri even touched on this. He said everytime he felt he had Pacquiao figured out, Pacquiao would adjust himself.

Floyd Mayweather will be landing the straight right, indeed. However, Mayweather has shown a tendency to get caught with the straight left from southpaws. Chop-chop Corley, Zab Judah multiple times, and even Ortiz. This was a prime Mayweather too when his reflexes were unparalleled, and now Mayweather has slowed and is no longer prime. But, today's Pacquiao is still levels above Judah, Corley, and Ortiz.

Mayweather tends to slip into his philly shell when he's feinted or has to make a quick decision. Because, like I said, his defense is very reactionary, and he'll react the second he sees movement. This is his go-to move. It works 99% of the time because 99% of the time, he is fighting orthodox fighters. However, each time he's done it against a southpaw, he's been caught with the straight left hand.

With that said, just as Pacquiao has shown tendencies to get caught with the right, I say the same with Mayweather and the left hand.

They'll both be landing their lead punch throughout the fight, for sure.

But... now it comes down to, who's will cause more damage? I see Mayweather's right hand maybe bothering, at most stunning opponents. While we know Pacquiao's straight left hand can put you flat on your back (Hatton, Mosley, Algieri).

So who's lead will cause the most collateral damage in the long run?

I don't think the clinch will be used, nor a factor. I've never seen an opponent ever be successful with a clinch against Pacquiao. If you want to see someone try recently, watch 9th Round of Pacquiao's fight with Chris Algieri.

It'll be interesting to see Mayweather try to fight on the inside. Pacquiao likes to fight at a distance, but those who have tried to walk him down usually don't like what is reciprocated back at them i.e. entire Margarito fight.

This will be interesting because Pacquiao is using his feet to quickly close the distance just as much as he's "lunging". Mayweather has never faced an opponent who has this great of footwork... to close a distance fast and get out, but it'll be interesting to see.

Speaking of countering jabs. Mayweather needs to be extremely careful with his body jab. Pacquiao is very slick and will make an opponent use their own reach against themselves. He'll bait the taller boxer to use their reach, and trick his opponent into over extending by staying just out of their range. Whenever they're over extended, and now in range for Pacquiao, he'll pull-counter and come back with 5/6 punch combination, or like Judah did, could use the right hook.

Once again, can you provide some video proof of Pacquiao fatally reacting to feints in recent years. I know he was really careless in reacting to Marquez, but he's a different fighter now. Maybe Bradley, but I don't recall seeing it.

 

Why not? If anything, couldn't he? Floyd Mayweather doesn't usually fight fast fighters with the hand speed and foot speed of Pacquiao, or even himself. Zab Judah was probably the quickest, but even Judah wasn't as fast as Mayweather.


Pacquiao has fought speedy fighters, his past two fights were against fast fighters even. Mayweather usually doesn't, so due to Mayweather's inexperience with speedy fighters, could it be a possible advantage? Or at least till Mayweather is able to time him, which as I stated above, may take longer than we think.

Once again, please provide an example of Pacquiao seriously losing a fight from feints. Marquez has fooled him with a few and sometimes didn't fool him, but nothing that was truly a serious factor in the fight. Also, I think Pacquiao's hand and foot speed will cause Mayweather to want to cover up and not counter. I say this because from what I've seen, Mayweather doesn't counter "flurries". He usually likes to counter more when they throw single punches, stand-still in front of him or when he's against the ropes. In cases of combinations(Zab Judah, Victor Ortiz), he covers up with the high guard and will walk straight back to the ropes.

I see Pacquaio fighting his style and Mayweather fighting his style, and both of them trying to enforce their style on one another. It'll be fun to watch.

On the punches, I disagree. Pacquiao has already stated throwing many punches for all three minutes of every round is part of his gameplan, so extremely high activity. Considering this is the fight of his life, I wouldn't be surprised if he throws someone near the 800-900's.


He said on First Take with Marquez, "When you watch Hatton, and someone who throws a lot of punches...he doesn't like that."


I think what he was referring to in that statement was what I said above. When someone comes at him with combinations or "flurries", he covers up and goes full defensive mode.

As I stated above... I have never seen someone have success clinching Pacquiao. Secondly, Pacquiao has experience fighting opponent's with longer reaches and taller than Floyd Mayweather. Pacquiao is an elite fighter, just as Floyd, so I believe him when he said today, "We don't have any problems in that area. This is not my 1st time to fight a taller guy. We are used to these situations and we know what to do. Many of the other boxers I fought are much more taller than him. I'm not worried."

Why I believe him is because he's proved this to be true. In all cases of someone having a reach, height advantage (Algieri, Clottey, Cotto, Margarito, ODLH, Morales, Mosley, etc), he's dominated them all and never showed struggle with their reach or height advantage.

Once again, I don't see it being a factor in the fight.

Disagree stated by all points above. Championship rounds will be very, very fun to watch. At this point, I wonder if Mayweather would have been able to keep up with Pacquiao's increasing pace, work rate as fight goes on. Mayweather's legs have seemed to diminish greatly since Canelo. So, I wonder if Mayweather will be up on the ropes more by these later rounds, having to engage, simply due to the facts that he's legs are tired.

He showed incredible impatience before the Marquez KO. Now, I think he is a much more intelligent fighter and will adjust accordingly, as Algieri said.

No KO or TKO on either side unless Manny Pacquiao has 0 respect for Mayweather's power and Mayweather's legs forces him to be on the ropes in later rounds. As Leon Spinks said a few days ago, if Mayweather gets on the ropes against Manny Pacquiao... it won't be good. I don't see a knockout, but I see an attack on Floyd Mayweather you've never seen before. Maybe TKO if there's a busted nose or cut.


I'm usually conservative with my picks as well, and have always called it 50/50.. but after breaking it down myself, you've now officially convinced me that Manny Pacquiao will win. I can't believe I have officially said it. Manny Pacquiao has the stylistic advantage, and styles make fights. The unorthodox, foot/hand speed, and his very high intensity pace is all wrong for Mayweather, and I now don't even believe Mayweather's incredible adjustment of getting down rhythm and timing will be done quick enough to win against Pacquiao.

Rematch, Mayweather wins. But, not the first fight.

However, if Mayweather's legs somehow come back to their youthful selves and he is how he was against Canelo Alvarez, then Mayweather has the advantage and will probably win.

But, like I've said, Mayweather's legs have slipped dramatically in recent years. Why? Simply, age. He's 38 and it was bound to happen sooner or later. Unfortunately, it happened just a couple years too soon.

If they come back somehow, then totally different fight, but as they stand right now... MANNY PACQUIAO WILL WIN. Being back and forth so long, your post has finally convinced me. yikes I'm sorry Floyd! I still love you!!!

 

its been a long time since Floyd fought someone lighter than him Floyd true strength will be shown in this fight

 

Abuffy KSAB! Great post.

 

Originally Posted by abuffy View Post
Why not? If anything, couldn't he? Floyd Mayweather doesn't usually fight fast fighters with the hand speed and foot speed of Pacquiao, or even himself. Zab Judah was probably the quickest, but even Judah wasn't as fast as Mayweather.

Pacquiao has fought speedy fighters, his past two fights were against fast fighters even. Mayweather usually doesn't, so due to Mayweather's inexperience with speedy fighters, could it be a possible advantage? Or at least till Mayweather is able to time him, which as I stated above, may take longer than we think.

Once again, please provide an example of Pacquiao seriously losing a fight from feints. Marquez has fooled him with a few and sometimes didn't fool him, but nothing that was truly a serious factor in the fight. Also, I think Pacquiao's hand and foot speed will cause Mayweather to want to cover up and not counter. I say this because from what I've seen, Mayweather doesn't counter "flurries". He usually likes to counter more when they throw single punches, stand-still in front of him or when he's against the ropes. In cases of combinations(Zab Judah, Victor Ortiz), he covers up with the high guard and will walk straight back to the ropes.

I see Pacquaio fighting his style and Mayweather fighting his style, and both of them trying to enforce their style on one another. It'll be fun to watch.

On the punches, I disagree. Pacquiao has already stated throwing many punches for all three minutes of every round is part of his gameplan, so extremely high activity. Considering this is the fight of his life, I wouldn't be surprised if he throws someone near the 800-900's.

He said on First Take with Marquez, "When you watch Hatton, and someone who throws a lot of punches...he doesn't like that."

I think what he was referring to in that statement was what I said above. When someone comes at him with combinations or "flurries", he covers up and goes full defensive mode.

As I stated above... I have never seen someone have success clinching Pacquiao. Secondly, Pacquiao has experience fighting opponent's with longer reaches and taller than Floyd Mayweather. Pacquiao is an elite fighter, just as Floyd, so I believe him when he said today, "We don't have any problems in that area. This is not my 1st time to fight a taller guy. We are used to these situations and we know what to do. Many of the other boxers I fought are much more taller than him. I'm not worried."

Why I believe him is because he's proved this to be true. In all cases of someone having a reach, height advantage (Algieri, Clottey, Cotto, Margarito, ODLH, Morales, Mosley, etc), he's dominated them all and never showed struggle with their reach or height advantage.

Once again, I don't see it being a factor in the fight.

Disagree stated by all points above. Championship rounds will be very, very fun to watch. At this point, I wonder if Mayweather would have been able to keep up with Pacquiao's increasing pace, work rate as fight goes on. Mayweather's legs have seemed to diminish greatly since Canelo. So, I wonder if Mayweather will be up on the ropes more by these later rounds, having to engage, simply due to the facts that he's legs are tired.

He showed incredible impatience before the Marquez KO. Now, I think he is a much more intelligent fighter and will adjust accordingly, as Algieri said.

No KO or TKO on either side unless Manny Pacquiao has 0 respect for Mayweather's power and Mayweather's legs forces him to be on the ropes in later rounds. As Leon Spinks said a few days ago, if Mayweather gets on the ropes against Manny Pacquiao... it won't be good. I don't see a knockout, but I see an attack on Floyd Mayweather you've never seen before. Maybe TKO if there's a busted nose or cut.

I'm usually conservative with my picks as well, and have always called it 50/50.. but after breaking it down myself, you've now officially convinced me that Manny Pacquiao will win. I can't believe I have officially said it. Manny Pacquiao has the stylistic advantage, and styles make fights. The unorthodox, foot/hand speed, and his very high intensity pace is all wrong for Mayweather, and I now don't even believe Mayweather's incredible adjustment of getting down rhythm and timing will be done quick enough to win against Pacquiao.

Rematch, Mayweather wins. But, not the first fight.

However, if Mayweather's legs somehow come back to their youthful selves and he is how he was against Canelo Alvarez, then Mayweather has the advantage and will probably win.

But, like I've said, Mayweather's legs have slipped dramatically in recent years. Why? Simply, age. He's 38 and it was bound to happen sooner or later. Unfortunately, it happened just a couple years too soon.

If they come back somehow, then totally different fight, but as they stand right now... MANNY PACQUIAO WILL WIN. Being back and forth so long, your post has finally convinced me. I'm sorry Floyd! I still love you!!!

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Honestly, don't agree with you at all. We'll see May 2nd. :good

JMM is an ATG fighter. So is Pacquiao. The reason you don't see the problems with most of the fighters Pacquiao has faced because they are not on that level. You honestly think Pac's last opponent because of his style is anything like fighting Floyd? Chris is a good fighter, but come on. No business at that level. And doesn't have a single physical attribute to keep Pac honest.

Mayweather will have every physical advantage in the ring essentially. And he's the superior technician. If you're putting cash on Pacquiao, good luck. You're betting on a puncher's chance.

The fact JMM was able to limit Pacquiao's volume so much speaks volumes. If you think Mayweather will not be able to accomplish the same feat, considering he's the best counter puncher and accurate puncher in the sport, we'll never agree on that I'm afraid. :-(

 

171-140 for Mayweather so far... 5 picked draw

 

Lol, watch those 5 people be right. What an anti-climatic finish to the fight. A freaking draw.

 

I'm expecting a great fight. I think both are past prime but still very good. I actually think Mayweather has looked more past prime than Pacquiao as of late.

He dominated Algieri but what do we really know about Algieri? Algieri won a controversial decision over Ruslan Provodnikov and took a lot of punishment in that fight. He went the distance with Pac but didn't come close to winning. He was down 6 times and took a beating from Pac.

Pac looked really good in the Bradley rematch. Bradley is a very good fighter and this win gets overlooked IMO. I thought that Pac dominated Bradley in their first fight as well (I gave Bradley about 2 rounds), one of the worst decisions ever. Their first fight was prior to Pac's loss to Marquez.

He dominated Brandon Rios for a clear decision win, a near shut out to be honest.

He's lost about 2 rounds in his last 3 fights (both to Bradley).

He was stopped by Marquez in their 4th fight, LKOby6. He had dropped Marquez and was ahead on points going into the 6th round. Marquez is a great fighter and was much more comfortable at WW in this fight than what he was when he fought Mayweather. Pac is 2-1-1 vs. Marquez and has dropped him 5 times. They match up very well.

Pac and Mayweather have other common opponents-

Shane Mosley- Pac dropped him and beat him clearly. Mosley rocked the shlt out of Mayweather but clearly lost to him.

Miguel Cotto- He had more than a few moments vs. Mayweather but lost by decision. Pac dominated Cotto and stopped him in the 12th round.

Ricky Hatton- Hatton had a few moments vs. Mayweather but was stopped in the 10th round. I thought Pac killed Hatton when he dropped him for the count in the 2nd round.

Oscar DeLaHoya- A case can be made that DeLaHoya beat Mayweather. Pac dominated DeLaHoya and stopped him in the 8th round... granted, Oscar was far from his best in this fight.

Prior to the loss to Bradley, Pacquiao had gone 28-1-2 (21) in his previous 31 fights over the span of 12 1/2 years. The loss was a hard fought decision loss to Erik Morales. He stopped Morales in their next two fights, KO10 and KO3. The draws were to Agapito Sanchez TD6 (due to an accidental head-butt) and Marquez W12 (who was down 3 times in the 1st round of this fight). He won the next two fight vs. Marquez, W12 x2. During this stretch he also beat Jorge Julio KO2, Emmanuel Lucero KO3, Marco Barrera KO11 and W12, Oscar Larios W12, Jorge Solis KO8, David Diaz KO9, Joshua Clottey W12, and Antonio Margarito W12 among others.

 

Meanwhile, Mayweather struggled with Maidana twice. He had a tough fight with Alvarez. He dominated Guerrero who got the fight by beating Berto. He had a tough fight with Cotto. He was actually having a tough time with Ortiz before the stoppage.

Prior to Ortiz was the Mosley and Marquez fights.

Anything can happen. It's about time. Definitely gonna have a get together for this one.