Abraham has the power, defense and ring guile to catch Pavlik with a counter, a big counter. Pavlik takes shots to the head and if he gets clocked by Abraham he's done. I'm not sure Kessler has the defense to avoid Pavlik's power all night, and Calzaghe, though he would have schooled Pavlik in his prime, is too old now.
I don't think Kessler would beat Pavlik....I'd favor Calzaghe to beat Pavlik by decision but its no guarantee he'd win....
Styles make fights. Joe Calzaghe repeatedly leaves him self open to Pavlik's best weapons. Pavlik KO10 Calzaghe. Mikkel Kessler is a different story. Pavlik uses peoples flaws and weakeness to beat them. People usually miss that fact, but it is a fact. Kessler has very solid fundamentals, and I haven't seen anything Kelly would be able to consistently exploit. Much of this fight would be predicated on the jabbing contest; an area where not many people can beat Pavlik. The other factor is that I still have questions about Kessler's grit. What would his emotional state be if Kelly is still firing 80-100 punches per round and connecting with 30% in the late rounds? I see Pavlik/Kessler as a 50/50 fight that ends with a close decision for Kessler or late TKO for KP. Arthur Abraham has a punchers chance at best. He's target practice.