Ortiz TKO 10/11 Mayweather if...

...Ortiz sets the tempo from the opening bell and bulls Mayweather, an all out body, arm and shoulder attack! No concentrated effort to Mayweather's head. Just a relentless torso and limb assault! More on that later. First...

Yes, Cortez is going to make himself a factor yet again (he can't help it and you know May and the gang know this!) by attempting to halt any infighting. But if Vic establishes from the word go that this is how he's gonna fight and doesn't get discouraged by all of Cortez's meddling, don't bet on Cortez truly ****ing up this fight a la Hatton. This fight is even bigger ($-wise) and center stage with major implications for the winner (and loser) for Cortez to yield again to his apparently self-aggrandizing need to leave his mark in any given fight. Although his self-delusion that any fight he refs is in fact a showcase for himself, he still isn't self-delusional enough to think that the fighters, those in the boxing world, and, particularly, the fans will accept another "fair and firm" officiating performance. In his mind, Cortez doesn't do "Indian Casino" fights. It's Vegas or nothing, baby! Point is, he's on a very short leash and he's aware of it.

Now, back to the fight!

Vic's in shape. Mayweather's in shape. We know what their respective strengths and weaknesses are. No need to go over that again. No, what we're down to is strategy! The real question is: Who's gonna impose their gameplan? To answer that, we have to answer: What is it and why it'll work? Who the **** knows! But here's an educated guess...

I gotta believe that despite Mayweather's insistence and prediction that he's going for the KO, his history tells me otherwise that he's gonna play it safe as usual. He's clearly older and slower, though not necessarily old or slow! And so, if when he was "better" and had the tools in the belt to do the job and didn't (KO opponents), why then would he now (KO opponents) when he no longer has those tools?

A Mayweather who stands his ground against Ortiz is playing into the hands of Ortiz. I think Mayweather understands this. So, I don't expect him to go for the KO. I expect another safety-first defensive performance. We know what that strategy is all about 'cause we've seen it in every single fight he's been in save for Mosely and Corrales. And we know it works.

So, how does Ortiz break through? Although Mayweather and his *****s don't like to acknowledge it, De la Hoya and Castillo 1 showed us two ways. De la Hoya showed us a long, stiff jab can keep Mayweather at bay. Unfortunately for De la Hoya, he wasn't disciplined enough and clearly past it to sustain the effort. But it did work really well while it lasted.

Alternatively, Castillo 1 demonstrated that you break through that defense with constant pressure and cutting off the ring, ie., the avenues of escape. Even though I scored that fight unanimous in favor of Castillo, I remember thinking during the fight that Castillo should not have devoted so much effort to Mayweather's head. It was just too elusive.

And so, Ortiz, I believe, will utilize and modify the Castillo blueprint to his strengths and concentrate a sophisticated, bullish attack on May's body and limbs in a sustained fashion and resist the temptation to target May's head unless a clear opportunity arises. This strategy suits him more than the De la Hoya strategy simply because Ortiz's jab is almost non-existent in fights and to do otherwise would take him out of his comfort zone and he'd clearly lose.

So, which game-plan will prevail?

Surprise! If Ortiz comes out respecting Mayweather, Mayweather is going to pot shot him to death en route to a boring, unanimous decision.

But, this isn't going to happen.

Ortiz, who has nothing to lose in this fight and everything to gain (unlike Mayweather!), will eat numerous Mayweather rights early. He may even suffer a flash knockdown! But the tide will turn in the seventh or eighth round, where Mayweather's inability to shift into that other gear and escape, as a result of Victor's overlooked but consistent body work, will turn this fight around on a dime. Expect Mayweather to stand his ground, where the ensuing firefight will favor Ortiz's youth and energy. Mayweather will get rocked repeatedly and look to hold (cue Cortez to save him!). Ortiz will hurt him badly at the end of a round (9 or 10), but Mayweather will not recover in the ensuing break and Victor will pour it on at the start of the new round and Cortez will step in and save Mayweather from further punishment.

Ortiz TKO 10/11 Mayweather!

PS Wouldn't be surprised by an early KO either!