-I picked and bet $500 Pacquiao over De La Hoya by retirement in the exact round (won big) -I picked and bet $500 Hatton over Pacquiao (lost) -I picked and bet $500 Vitali KO over Arreolla after round 6 (nice win though not a big one) I now will pick Cotto over Pacquiao in a mid rounds stoppage (6-9 rounds)...perhaps a cut...and bet my traditional $500. I think that Pacquiao has been too distracted to have trained properly anyway and could get stopped by KO.
On the contrary....I would say that I have a .667 winning percentage....and win two of every three times.
to me its not about who's going to win, its the value of the bet. I think Cotto will end up a +250 underdog come fight time. Notice Pac's training camp is awfully similar to Barrera's training camp with all the distractions of natural disasters. Mab had to deal with forrest fires, Pac's gotta deal with tropical storms. He has no one to blame but himself should he lose and use yet another lame excuse to why he lost.
I won $1270 on pavlik taylor 1. £310 on pac/dela hoya becuz I though pac would stop him on cuts. and pavlik hopkins £70 becuz I picked hopks by decision. Last tym I lost was wen I bet hatton would KO mayweather but there was no logic behind that. only biassness lol. I cant call this becuz I believe that in any give night either fighter can get stopped so there isnt a blue print. sorry
Higher odds by picking by halves: rounds 1-6 or 7-12, quarters: rounds 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12 or the exact round. It feels like more of an investment when you do the research and determine what factors might influence the outcome....and ultimately then its still your gut.
I dont know why you would bet on cuts againts DLH. He has pretty solid skin. His face bruises but i actually dont think i have ever seen him cut.