Pacman by a hard-fought decision. A stoppage is just a bonus.

Well, that's my prediction on this fight. Not just because being a Filipino or a Pac fan, but also taken from analysis of both fighters.

I will start with the intangibles:

On one hand we have the favorite. The biggest draw in boxing and one of the best during his time. He may be a shade away from his prime, but this guy has a lot going for him. Size, experience, chin and he can definitely punch.

On the other, we have the man considered as the best fighter in the world. Transforming from a hard-charging brawler to an aggressive boxer-puncher. He may not be everyone's cup of tea, but you can't deny that he is one of, if not, the most exciting performer on the ring today.

Now on with the analysis of the fight:

Everyone outside the hardcore Pac fans (including me) uttered the same words when this fight was considered a possibility. "ODLH is too big." Well, two months changed my view of the fight.

A lot of people would just brush off the possibility of Pac winning simply because of the size differential. Not me. Why? Because Pac is a rarity. One of the few guys who can carry their power(though not as potent as before) and keep their speed and mobility even after moving up in weight. Case in point, RJJ, PBF and ironically DLH himself. Also, the school of thought that Pac's chin won't hold up against the bigger man's blows were based on his early losses when he was still a flyweight. Well, let me reiterate that Pac was KO'd by a headshot only once. (The other was a stoppage from bodyshots when he was completely weight drained.) And that loss happened very early on his career. Here's to you guys who insists on this theory, Henry Armstrong and Alexis Arguello were KO'd from their pro debut. Does that mean that they cannot take a punch from bigger guys? Lastly, stamina will never be an issue. Pac is always on tremendous physical condition.

DLH is a bit of a puzzle right now. You have to wonder where exactly he is at this point of his career. I'm one of those guys who will not ride on that "fading on the late-rounds" belief on DLH. He ran against Tito simply because he felt he was ahead, and he never wanted to take any unnecessary risk. SSM was able to out-hustle him down the stretch because Mosley invested on bodywork early on the fight, not because of fading. As was displayed against PBF and Vargas, DLH can still dish it out even at the last stages of the fight. Plus, DLH, even at his age still has that handspeed. As far as his career goes, only two types of style gave him fits, slick black boxers (Whitaker, SSM, PBF) and guys who can beat him to the jab (Quartey, Sturm).

Why did I reach the prediction I made?

No. 1 factor is inactivity. He's been fighting just once a year. That's part of the reason why Forbes was able to get some licks in. Sure he got some rounds when he out-pointed Forbes, but he did not squeeze any tune-up in between. On fights with this magnitude, any addition helps, and it will not help him if he is rusted.

Next, as was stated before, Pac is a rare breed of fighter who can carry their strengths even as they get heavier. The whirlwind that he is, he will be a handful for ODLH.

Also, SSM displayed that when you work on DLH's body, you will reap the rewards. Expect Pac to work the body from the start. It will definitely pay dividends on the middle rounds.

Another thing, the weight and reach would be an issue. Maybe on just the scale of DLH being a bigger guy can take Pac's punches better and he will possess a fearsome and longer jab. But history if full of guys who made this jump. The most glaring example is George Charpienter. This guy started as a 16 yr old flyweight (notice something similar?) and ended up being the lightheavyweight champion and challenging heavyweight champ Jack Dempsey.

Lastly, as was also stated several times by boxing experts, Pac is not slick southpaw. He may be fast but he's no defensive wizard. And they also point out that JMM gave Pac fits. While Pac may not be a slick boxer, DLH is no master counter-puncher either. Only men of JMM's superior distance and counter-punching ability will be able to beffudle him, and even JMM lost both fights. DLH is much more adept in picking off his opponents with jabs , crosses and left hooks, then drill opponents with uppercuts whenever they get too close. Something that Pac already experienced when he fought Morales.

I expect Pac to start cautiously the way he did JMM the first time, occasionally charging in to land a punch or two on the body. DLH will have his way early, especially with the jab. Then get's to time time jab and be able to get inside close. On close range, DLH's massive reach will mean squat. By the middle rounds the body work will take it's toll and Pac will be able to land cleanly to the head. By the later rounds DLH's defense will be more vulnerable and Pac lands enough punches leading him to a close decision. Probably on the 115-113 interval.

All in all, this is just a prediction based on my analysis of both fighters. I'm sure a lot of you will dispute this but hey, we're all entitled to opinion right? And this guy is willing to eat crow if he gets proven wrong come saturday night.

 

I may not have it exactly the way it happened. But then again, I was right.