Pavlik/Abraham: A Closer Look.

Each one of these guys presents a unique set of challenges the other has not dealt with. Pavlik normally beats seven shades of **** out of short power punchers, but he hasn't faced one as durable or as defensively adequate as Abraham. Arthur has never faced a tall, heavy handed, high work rate, long armed guy like KP. In fact, Arthur has only faced one fighter over 6', and that was Ikeke. The similarities between Pavlik and Ikeke start AND stop at being tall.

Many of those who predict a Pavlik win predict a win by decision. I disagree. Both of these guys are very good at what they do, and what they do is leave the vast majority of their opponents slumped in a heap on the canvass. I would be surprised to see this go a full 12 rounds, and KP has a higher KO ratio against better opposition. Miranda hurt Arthur BAD. Kelly would have finished him.

When AA was busy with Marquez, who was a mandatory, Pavlik fought Hopkins. When KP was busy with Lockett, also a mandatory, Arthur fought a rematch with Miranda. When Pavlik was busy with the rematch obligation to Jermain, Arthur fought Elvin Ayala (Zuniga was the rightful mandatory.) During the period when Pavlik fought consecutive fights with Zertuche, Miranda, and Jermain Taylor, Arthur fought Demers, Gevor, and Elcock. Neither guy has what I would call a stellar resume', but Pavlik is way ahead of AA where quality of opposition is concerend.

Arthur is tough, but tough ain't enough. He has numerous bad habits that Pavlik will make him pay for. He throws a lot of wide looping shots that will not reach Pavlik and will leave him wide open to a jab-right hand that comes right down the pipe. He also has a bad habit of lunging in with his head and shoulders sticking way out past his feet. If he does that against Pavlik, his corner will have to gather his head up out of the front row.

Pavlik is a stalker who applies constant pressure. His methodology is simple. Stalk 'em, stun 'em, put 'em on the ropes and unleash hell. One thing I noticed about Arthur is that the slightest amount of pressure sends him to the ropes or a corner. Several of his opponents had him on the ropes, and just let him go because they could not engage without getting in range to be countered. That will not be the case with Pavlik who has a 3" reach advantage. In addition to a gross reach advantage, Kelly has relatively long arms, and Arthur has short arms. Kelly normally has to bully guys back to the ropes. Arthur will most likely volunteer to go exactly where Pavlik wants him, and you can't counter what you can't reach.

An opponent MUST NOT let Pavlik trap him on the ropes. Arthur has to do everything he can to keep the fight in the center of the ring. One problem here is that it takes speed and smart movement equal to BHop or Taylor in the rematch to pull that off. Arthur does not have the needed attributes or skills at that level. A second problem is that going to the ropes is what Arthur does naturally. He WANTS to go there. That's a recipe for disaster.

These frequent comparisons between Abraham's defense and a prime Winky are either pure nuthuggery, or made by people who don't know much about Winky. Winky has ungodly long arms. AA has short arms. Unlike Winky Arthur cannot put on the ear muffs and protect his body at the same time. He has to choose. Pavlik will throw some well placed lead rights and left hooks up under Arthur's respective elbows, and the guard will come down.

Pavlik really needs to watch himself on a couple of his bad habits too. Sometimes when the right hand misses Kelly falls in really bad. When that happens it leaves him way out of position and off balance. That's a perfect time for AA to exlpode without notice. However, if he catches Kelly with one of those near-perfect right hands he occasionally launches, he must not get sloppy with the follow up. If he does, Kelly will make him pay for it. Or, at the very least, survive and recuperate.

KP must not stop to admire his handy work. Seriously! If you watch Pav closely, you'll notice that once in a while after he throws a particularly nice right hand, he pauses for a split second, leaves his right hanging out in the middle of nowhere, and just looks at his opponent. Not a good idea against a guy like Arthur.

Finally, Pav should probably avoid his normal bully routine. Kelly does not mind takin' an ass whoopin'. He's perfectly willing to throw defense out the window so that he can keep throwing punches and bully his opponent into the position he wants him in. That's probably not the best way to approach Arthur. Kelly probably needs to slow down a little, focus less on work rate, and more on defense and accuracy.

I could say a lot more about these two, but this post is already to long. Pavlik KO8 Abraham.

 

I don't even know what to call that things Kelly does. A back-jump-step? It looks terrible, but it is nearly always EFFECTIVE.

 

You know -- i was mainly thinking of not getting careless and consequently getting caught with Arthur's bazooka! I'm not trying to say, "fight like Arguello" or something. I do think KP has to be a bit more cautious than normal.

 

The body work will be a major factor. It can be dangerous to body punch down at a much shorter guy, but it may be necassary to bring Arthur's guard down.

 

I just read a good article on Seconds Out. The interviewer seemed to think that KP is more hungry and hard edged than ever. More like the old Kelly from back in '06 when he was saying if JT didn't want the ****in' fight, he should vacate the title so he could win it in a tournament. :yep