Pavlik/Abraham: A Closer Look.

There is a poster that seems to have an 'in' with Pavlik. This is still on Kelly's radar for 2009. The one 'bump' I see is Sturm. He is suddenly willing now that the WBA has made Mundine his mandatory. (We knew this was going to happen when he vacated his SWM belt for Kessler didn't we? ) Sturm has been unwilling to talk previous. Many are convinced it is just to keep him from looking like he is ducking AA. Which he most obviously is. That said, you take Sturm when you can get him. May be a one shot chance. Not sure Sturm is serious though. I don't see him getting the same money from Kelly as AA offered him.

 

I'd first like to start by saying that around this time last year or a little longer, I did not feel Arthur was on Pavlik's level. However, after watching a few more fights of both I've come to the belief that I strongly feel Pavlik is made for him and would be knocked out if they were to meet.

Pavlik, there isn't much that stands out about him. What you see is what you get. Come forward fighter with power in both hands, great stamina, workrate an underrated bodypuncher and great height @ 6'-2" 1/2 for a middleweight.

Abraham, a stocky muscular powerpuncher at 5'10" that spends a lot of time on defense, save for a few powerful flurries, great power (particularly in the left hook), good bodypuncher.

Onto the weaknesses..

Pavlik: Slower than average handspeed, not the greatest footwork or balance, open defense. Doesn't use height to his advantage

Abraham: Doesn't open up a whole lot, therefore loses rounds based on inactivity. Can be wild sometimes, not the best footwork and isn't at his best when forced to lead.

The fighters that give Abraham trouble are movers, the ones that don't like to engage much and prefer to box, rather than fight. Stylistically, I think someone like Jermain Taylor would box circles around AA, yet Pavlik owns Taylor. Again, styles make fights..

The fighters that give Pavlik trouble are also boxers. In the second fight with JT, Jermain stayed off the ropes/corners and avoided the right hand for the most part, thus having more success and able to outbox Pavlik in some rounds. Though Pavlik's stamina and workrate was too much in the end when Taylor faded. However, I consider Abraham, despite not being a 'boxer', an exception. For me, it all comes down to :


Chin: Abrahams chin is well proven. For all his limitations, there is no doubting Pantera's power, especially that right hand. And for someone to go 12 rounds with him having a broken jaw, continuesly getting hit in the same spot, they've got to be able to take a punch. I don't consider Pavlik a one punch knockout artist, but an accumulation puncher. I think Pavlik has a good chin, but I don't think he can take AA's best punch.

Defense: Abraham has a very tight defense. Pavlik picks off a lot more punches than given credit for, but he still takes more flush hits than AA. Pavlik would mostly be hitting his arms, while Abraham waits in a shell, looking for the right spot to throw.

Power: You can say that Abraham doesn't hit any harder than Miranda, and you could very well be right. It's probably even. But, Abraham is more effective with his power than Miranda. Miranda, without question, hits harder than Taylor, yet he could not hurt him nearly as bad as Taylor did because he's only effective when he's coming forward. He does not fight as well off the backfoot. Abraham on the other hand, looks to counterpunch off of the backfoot, unlike Miranda, and can still generate his power.

Height: Abraham is 5'10", could even be 5'9", while Pavlik gets listed as high as 6'3" but I don't think it'll matter. Pavlik does not use his height to his advantage, he does not maintain distance well between himself and the other boxer. You can say "how is Abraham going to counter someone that much taller than he is throwing such wide hooks?" but make no mistake, Pavlik is hittable, and like I said, doesn't maintan distance well. If you watch his fight with Zertuche, another stocky powerpuncher; Pavlik got hit, and a lot in that fight. And Zertuche was throwing punches wider than my house.

Styles: Abraham, like I said, prefers to fight come forward fighters. Pavlik will be coming forward, looking to bring the pain and Abraham will look to find an opening he can exploit. Pavlik does drop his hands sometimes after throwing, if he doesn't correct that, he could very well be caught by a huge left hook. Going to the ropes may seem like a bad idea against Pavlik, but for Abraham this could be a good thing. To bait Pavlik in and catch him.

Finishing abilities: Taylor had Pavlik in serious trouble, but was unable to finish him because he went crazy gunnin' for the KO and ran out of gas. Abraham has superior finishing skills than Taylor, and usually when an opponent hurt, doesn't last much longer. For an example, see his fight with Wayne Elcock, he has him hurt, goes a bit crazy, then settles down and times him with an amazing right hand that has him out on his feet. If Pavlik gets hurt, I don't think he'll last.

All in all, this is a fight I want to see. I see Pavlik, being Pavlik, coming out like his usual self, throwing a lot of punches to Abraham's arms, gloves, body while Abraham mostly sits in a turtle shell catching punches. Rounds go on, Pavlik is winning, ahead on the cards, but Abraham, despite not throwing much, is conserving energy and waiting for the right opening. As he does that, I can see Abraham landing a big punch that has him in serious trouble and as Pavlik struggles to survive it, is timed by another big punch and stopped soon after.

Abraham KO6-9

 

Golden Child, that is all fair points, but howcome when you got to finishing, you only spoke of AA's ability to do so. IMO, and many others, Pavlik is one of the best finishers in the game. If you are so much as buzzed by Pavlik, a large percentage of the time, it's game over.

I also disagree with you about Pavlik not using his height and range, now there are sometimes he will fall in, but it is rare. Pavlik stays very focused and sticks to a plan like very few can.

All in all very good post and it is fair by all means, but I disagree with you on whose hand will be raised at the end.

Let's just hope we get to see it, and the best man on the night will win.

 

We are going to disagree on Pavlik using his height. That is one thing Manny Steward likes about Kelly. He "fights tall". Second is chin. You agree Miranda probably punches as hard as Abraham, yet watch Kelly take Miranda's shots. His plan was to "bully the bully".

This is one fight I would love to see Kelly change his style up. Throw enough punches to win a round and no more. There is more than one way to break a guard. One is getting a guy down on points and forcing him to open up. AA can get pretty wild if he has to play catch up.

 

I don't want to look it up, because really it doesn't matter, but when AA got that nice high light KO of Elvin Ayala with :28 seconds to go, it was a fore arm/elbow that caught him under the chin. It's been shown, but I don't know where to dig it up. Ayala didn't protest, like a good sportsman, because he was soundly beaten regardless.

I hope a deal can be made, but as boo pointed out, they may waste too much time trying to make it into a huge PPV event, rather than just letting the 2 best MW"s get it on.

 

Also, look at Pavlik Taylor I, when Kelly did back him into the ropes Jermain would cover and wait, wait, then EXPLODE off of them....sound familiar. I'm pretty sure the former World Champion can explode off the ropes with the best of them.

When he caught Kelly...**** round 2...it was in the middle of the ring when he countered over a lazy Pavlik jab. Not during an explosion of wild ****.

In the words of one Jack Loew, : No body in the world can handle Kelly at 160.:deal

 

That's on another machine. I'll have to upload it. Been meaning to do that anyhow. I rewatch the second fight now and again because I think it is in many ways more impressive. People talk about how slow Kelly is, but geez. Watch that fight and then watch Rubio/Ornales. Bring your catchers mitt with you Feb 21. :good

 

I know Pavlik is a good finisher, I was just pointing out that Abraham's a beter finisher than Taylor. thats all

 

Catcher's mit...check.:good

But seriously, in the first fight, Jermain woud get backed to the ropes, cover up, wait and then explode. At which point Pavlik simply takes that long step back and makes no big deal out of it.

fight II Jermain did a poor man's version of what Mr. Hopkins did masterfully. If Mr. Hopkins felt that rope, he slid, and slid fast out and around very smartly keeping it to the center of the ring and keeping Pavlik circling.

AA does not have the speed and athleticism of Taylor and Hopkins.

 

Got ya. No problem, sir. I only asked because in your other categories you'd mentioned a little of both KP and AA, but not in the finishing category.

I also respectfully disagree about Pavlik not using his height and range.

Let us hope together friend the fight gets made and we get to find out.:good

 

This fight has to happen this year, no excuses. :hat

 

I think Abraham would beat Pavlik, perhaps even stop him. Pavlik needs time to fight his mandatories and grow.

 

this has to happen this year

 

Given their styles and Kelly's workrate and Arthur's 'laziness' and defensive orientation, I would probably favour Kelly slightly over the 12 to get the UD.

But Arthur has more explosive KO power and a better chin. If this ends in stoppage, it's almost certain that it's Kelly who'll be getting stopped.