PAvlik after April 17th,,,

I spent some time over the week end getting better aquainted with Sergio Martinez. I think Arriba was right when he compared Sergio to "a broke ass Calzaghe." He makes all the same mistakes Joe used to make, but he does not have the size, strength, stamina, chin, or work rate that Joe had.

Sergio's problem in this fight is that Pavlik has to know that he needs to utterly destroy Martinez. A hard fought decision will not suffice, and a loss would be devastating. He has to dominate Martinez, batter him from pillar to post, and leave him slumped on the canvass. Pavlik must know that if he can't do that, he won't survive the onslaught of hungry young lions coming up at 160, and he sure as hell won't do anything at 168.

 

As booradley hinted-at, this cuts both ways.

If Sergio Martinez looks even half-way good against Pavlik, your boy's pretty much shot.

 

:deal
Pavlik does hit harder than Williams but Martinez D isnt bad. Close fight.

 

Segio's defense is the single weakest part of his game. He has poor fundamentals, and relies mostly on speed and athelticism which deteriorates rapidly in the latter half of a fight.

 

1.) If Kelly wins decisively look for Arum to pull that career high pay day offer out from under William's camp. The Williams fight won't look all that attractive to them or mean all that much since most feel that style wise, Martinez would be more difficult for Kelly anyhow.

2.) If Paul does anything LESS than totally dominate Cintron and/or stop him, look for Arum to pull the offer too.

#1 I think is pretty likely.

#2 Chef, from personal observation, says Cintron has plenty of talent but no heart. While it is possible for Cintron to catch Paul early, I expect him to show his lack of heart as Paul pounds away in his usual style.

 

Mostly agree, though concentrating too much on KO'ing Hopkins landed Pavlik in deep ****. He needs to be hungry, but to take Martinez seriously at the same time. It's not an easy fight by any means!

 

One thing I noticed about Martinez is that he takes a lot of right hands to the face. Pavlik is more agressive than Cintron, more accurate than Williams, and hits a whole lot harder than either.

 

Why would you say Pavlik is more accurate than Williams when Pavlik punch % is in the mid 20's?:huh

PS: Pavlik's opponents usually have pretty good punch connections on Pavlik!!!

 

He's more aggressive than Cintron with less boxing skills than Cintron!

 

To be fair, I think even a second rate Calzaghe can give Pavlik the same problems that the real deal would give him. Sergio is slick early on and his hand speed would probably dazzle Pavlik early on. Believe me by about round 7 or so, it's going to look possible that Pavlik could lose a decision because Sergio will be beating him to the punch over and over again. That said Sergio tires and Pavlik has a powerful 1-2 combination that will land on Sergio over and over. Sergio will stand there, hands at his dick, begging Pavlik to 1-2 and Pavlik will have no hesitation to do just that. Sergio will flurry to try and steal the round but once Pavlik establishes himself a rhythm, it's easier said than done.

I think Pavlik will take a decision against Martinez.

 

Is Sergio faster than Taylor 'was'? Pavlik decision? Only if Sergio brings his tricycle .....

 

Handspeed wise? Yes.

Footspeed wise? Not entirely sure, I've never seen them run a race.

You underestimate how tough and gutsy Sergio is and also how long it's going to take Pavlik to get it going. Going from the likes of Hopkins, Espino and Mexican Don Frye stache and then going to a guy like Martinez is going to be a very large culture shock early on for Pavlik.

 

Faster and more fluid.

 

Martinez is a level above above Taylor. But like Taylor, he will get hurt by power. Unless training too much with Brother Bud has ruined Pavlik, he'll have this guy out of there. No need for the scorecards, which really the only chance Martinez has (and a good chance at that).