Pavlik and the Five Little Contenders

PAVLIK AND THE FIVE LITTLE CONTENDERS

It reminds me of the story of “The Three Little Bears.” Goldie Locks tries the porridge that’s too cold, then she tries the porridge that’s too hot, and finally she gets the soup that’s just right. Kelly Pavlik fought at Light-Heavyweight and got schooled by the forever-young Bernard Hopkins. Afterwards Team Pavlik said they struggled with gaining weight leading up to the fight. Pavlik crushed a couple of mandatories, and then got beat convincingly by Sergio Martinez. Afterwards he told us that he was killing himself trying to make the one-hundred and sixty pound limit. Now there are talks of him making his home at one-sixty eight, which is a division that is almost as deep in talent right now as Junior-Welterweight.

Here is a short list of five potential fights Pavlik can make in his fresh campaign as a contender in a new division, and here are the probable outcomes of those fights.

Carl Froch: Although the Cobra has power and a granite chin, he is tailor-made for Pavlik to make his debut and regain some of the luster he has lost in recent times. Froch, much like Pavlik, needs to be set and planted to unload his bombs. Kelly will not have to grapple with lateral movement or a fast sharpshooter who knows how to work on his bicycle. Carl will be there to hit, and Pavlik hits hard. I’m inclined to believe that if the Pavlik who beat Jermaine Taylor shows up to do war with the Froch who beat Taylor, Pavlik will achieve victory, with a possible TKO.

TKO VICTORY FOR PAVLIK

Librado Andrade: Not nearly of the caliber of Froch, Andrade’s one admitted strong suite is his ability to take punishment. With his caveman style of mugging the opponent and trying to wear him down in a war of attrition, Pavlik will give him as much punishment as he cares to eat. There’s no belt on the line, and his win won’t be regarded as much other than an announcement that Pavlik is in play, but it will be enough to get his campaign started.

UD FOR PAVLIK

Lucian Bute: If Pavlik ever wants to remember what it was like to paw with his jabs at empty air the way he did against Bernard Hopkins, he would do well to make this fight. Bute will turn him into a mummy over the course of twelve rounds, sidestepping Pavlik’s power and forcing the Ghost to cover up for dear life, after sending shocking combination after combination into Pavlik’s head and body. Pavlik has always finished on his feet, even in his losses. If he plays with Bute, he may face a hell far worse than the one Hopkins brought to him.

KO FOR BUTE



Arthur Abraham: This is one we all wanted at middleweight, yet it never came off. Some thought Pavlik was ducking the King, much like they accused him of ducking Paul Williams; but it was more probable that Pavlik had other irons in the fire, and was not concerned with a German whose name wasn’t Sturm. Abraham has great power and a great defense, but his lack of work-rate gives Pavlik carte blanche to tee-off on Abraham for the first five rounds with impunity, and the first two and a half minutes of every round. Abraham was barely able to absorb a rain of punishment from Edison Miranda, and many think he lost the first fight. Pavlik has more power than “El Pantera.” Abraham would hide in his shell, occasionally pulling the peek-a-boo, but he would absorb too many jabs and double-jabs. Pavlik would get a late TKO, as much as Arthur’s fans would hate it, and Kelly would be back in a big way, making a statement by KO-ing a former belt-holder who was believed to be one of the most iron-jawed and hardest punching men in the game.

TKO VICTORY FOR PAVLIK

Andre Dirrell: Another suicide match for Pavlik. Although he looks skinny, Dirrell is one of the bigger fighters in the “Super Six,” tournament and he has bloodied many a man’s face. He would starch Pavlik from pillar to post with lightning jabs. His uppercuts would make Pavlik’s head bounce on a swivel. Blood flows from Pavlik’s eye and nose freely in the mid-rounds and by the ninth, the beating Dirrell had given him when he’d trapped him in the corners would cause one of Kelly’s eyes to swell shut.

TKO VICTORY FOR DIRRELL

Mikkel Kessler: This would be one of the most exciting fights Pavlik could make. Assuming Kessler could hold his belts long enough, and Kelly managed to jump the line, he could be looking at becoming world-champion in a new division and shutting up the haters. Would it be possible, though? Kessler is not a great or exceptional fighter, but everything he does, he does well. He is accurate, fairly fast, and fairly powerful. He’s like a glorified sparring partner who accidentally beat the champs who were supposed to use him for training.

Kessler lacks head movement, except for a very metronomic side-to-side action, which even someone like Pavlik could time and take full advantage of. Neither of the fighters would do much backpedaling, and both would come forward, which would be much more likely to result in a head-butt than in a clinch. Pavlik is much better on the inside, and has a way of pulling off jabs and straights when it seems like there is not enough distance. His leverage also seems to come from some mysterious wellspring. Pavlik is not great, but he is deceptive down to even his body type. No one who looks at him, his lack of evident musculature, sees how powerful he is. Even those who can dance around him comprehend how bad it is to catch his heavy hands. The blueprint for beating Pavlik is something everyone knows. It is not something everyone can execute. I don’t think Kessler can do it. Much like the other Super-Middles who were mentioned in this article, Mikkel will be there to be hit and no matter how many times he gets tagged, he will not make adjustments, simply because they are not in his arsenal. He will get knocked out.

KO VICTORY FOR PAVLIK

So, if there was no handpicking of opponents and Kelly Pavlik were to plow through six fights in a two to three year period, taking on all comers, contenders, former champs, and belt-holders alike, here would be his record. A respectable 4-2, a bumpy road perhaps, but certainly a respectable one; it looks like Pavlik might belong at Super-Middleweight.

 

You must not be able to read very well. I said Pavlik would lose by a wide decision to Bute. Abraham is very beatable. In fact he lost his first fight to Edison Miranda, and he's relied on German Home-cooking to partially get him where he is

 

I think it is you sir who have been playing with the time flux capacitor, sir. Pavlik has talked about super-middle less than a month ago.