I've been gone for a few days, so when I logged on, and saw the threads about a possible Pavlik/Calzaghe fight it was news to me. My prediction is the same as it has been since Calzaghe/Kessler: Pavlik KO10 Calzaghe. The ONLY reason the KO won't come in 7 or 8 is because Joe has a very solid chin. Back when 70% of the posters here said Miranda and Taylor would both beat Pavlik, I predicted otherwise, and I was right. Pavlik is all wrong for Joe at this point. He's younger, stronger, hits harder and just as often as Calzaghe, and the boy is hungry. Kelly's stamina is just as good as Joe's, if not better. One crucial difference lies in the fact that Pavlik can throw hard punches for 12 rounds, and that is a lot more work than slapping and shoe shining like Joe does. Pavlik is more accurate than Joe. You can say what you want about Calzaghe hitting BHop more than anyone else ever did, but the fact of the matter is that Joe never landed an effective punch all night. Against Kessler, who sure as hell aint hard to find, Joe's connect rate was 28%. Pavlik's connect rate averages WAY higher than that, and he sits down on damn near everything he throws. Calzaghe does not hit hard enough to make Kelly respect him. He really has nothing in his arsenal to keep Pavlik off him. Joe can use his footwork and speed to to try and stay out of the way, but Pavlik WILL catch him. Calzaghe makes the same mistakes over and over: 1: He rushes in with his head down throwing wide slaps. If he does that against Pavlik, Kelly will hammer the **** out of him with that jack-hammer he calls a jab followed by straight and accurate right hand bombs. 2: Joe likes to throw a whole ****-load of little shoe-shine punches to the face. Most guys cover-up and weather the storm when he does that. Pavlik will eat those punches like little Hersheys chocolate kisses and fire back with authority. He will throw uppercuts to the chin and right hands to the body every time Joe tries that ****. 3: Everytime Joe throws a left to the body he leaves the whole right side of his head and face wide open. Pavlik will hit him with left hooks everytime. Calzaghe will find all the things that have worked for him in the past to be largely ineffective against Pavlik. Kelly will hurt joe early, and keep him off his game until he eventually stops in the 10th or 11th round. Remember! Most of you wrote Pavlik off before the Miranda fight, and then said he had no chance against Taylor! Most of you have underestimated Pavlik for as long as you've been watching him fight. Mark my words, he will prove you wrong again.
i really dont think pavlik has the skills or the class to beat joe even at this late stage of joe's career. if you prove me wrong well done
Going back to the very beginning of his career everytime Pavlik has step up a class in competition, he has emerged victorious. Calzaghe is not really much better than Taylor who beat a younger version of Bhop TWICE.
Funny that because he hit hard enough to make every fighter he's ever faced respect him. JC's short comings have been discussed ad nausaem, yet no one that has ever stepped in a ring with him has managed to exploit any of em to get a win so far. Funny that isnt it? Ever considered that Joe might actually be a class above anyone Pavlik has ever fought and his come foward style is wet dream for Joe?
Another excellent analysis Boo... It will amaze and I will give Joe a new level of respect if he even takes this fight.... Without a doubt this will be the toughest fight of Joes career I'm a fan of both fighters but Pavlik will be too much for Joe Pavlik is in his prime and would KO anybody from 160-175 honestly after the Lacy fight Joe has shown in my opinion a steady decline, I think most of his diehard fans on here would agree with me
I'd pick Calzaghe over Pavlik on points, and honestly, I don't even think it would be close for reasons already explained.
My point is this: Most poster on ESB act like joe would be some huge step up for Pavlik. That isn't true. Joe isn't much better than the version of Taylor that Pavlik beat the 2nd time.
C'mon - 'slapping and shoe shining' that is US bullsh1t! im a boxing fan from the UK and have never been a massive Calzaghe fan, but lets be honest, the man is good - top quality. If a nation that can embrace the style of Hopkins shuns the style Calzaghe then that is just double standards - but who am I? Pavlik may actually beat Joe - but if he lost - what then? Pavlik was too tall? too young? too white? Let's just give Joe a bit of credit for once eh? His style is different, lets just accept he does what he does, and does it well. Peace
Yep, joe's style is different all right, and it's his highly flawed style that will get him knocked out against Pavlik. And what's up with the nationalistic bull****?
YES! No, I don't like that some posters refer to Joe Calzaghe as a slapper, simply because he's a tremendous boxer who has a fine workrate and one of the best resume's in the sport today. I say Calzaghe W12 Pavlik.
I think Calzaghe will give Pavlik fits on the inside. In a few fights that I've seen that an opponent opens up and throws flurries/combinations, Pavlik, covers up, is like a deer caught in headlights, and doesn't try to counter. Pavlik needs to be set, and have his opponent in perfect distance for Pavlik to land anything meaningful. Pavlik is a 1-2 fighter, and his most effective punch other than his jab, is his follow up right hand. Pavlik rarely lands the right hand without throwing his jab first. If Pavlik's jab isn't fast enough to pop Calzaghe, Pavlik's right hand will hit air all night long. And that's what I expect to happen. Kelly Pavlik is extremely predictable, and Taylor showed this in the rematch, above all, avoiding Pavlik's right hand (for the most part). Pavlik was grinding, and only punching when Taylor wasn't - I know that sounds cliche, but it fits into my opening statement about Pavlik not being able to trade/counter effectively whilst his opponent is on the attack, or mounting pressure. This is noticeable in both of his fights with Taylor. Pavlik is too slow, and looping with his left hook i.e. a few times he was countered by Taylor in the rematch. Pavlik lacks punch creativity, and came up the ranks relying solely on his jab-right hand....Which always got the job done, but in the rematch with Taylor, Jermain, having already seen him once, knew all he had to do was avoid the big right. This left Kelly a basic fighter, needing to grind to get the win, whereas if he were to mix it up, I'm certain he would have gotten Jermain out of there before the bell sounded to end the fight. He didn't/doesn't mix it up, and I doubt he will have that oppurtunity against Calzaghe, who will not stand in front of Pavlik, and will not allow Pavlik to control the tempo of the fight.....Joe will look to offset Kelly, and make him uncomfortable with his angles and pressure....... When the fight is on the inside, I feel Calzaghe will do some holding and hitting - and he might take Pavlik out of his game and get him frustrated. All in all, I don't think Pavlik will be able to cope with Calzaghe's experience, ring intelligence, angles........And the key to the fight imo - Calzaghe's inside game and his ability to smother Pavlik's long punches. Calzaghe wins via UD, or late round stoppage.
Just a side note: as much of a step up in class this is for Pavlik its a bigger step for Joe Joe just beat one of Jermain Taylors castaways If I remember correctly many Joe huggers on here were doubting Pavlik in his rematch with Taylor due to the 2nd round knockdown he suffered in the first fight due to a serious flurry of punches, quite ironic how Joe gets floored by an old Granpa right hand in the 1st round(no need to speculate on who has the better chinavlik)of his fight.. Pavlik KO10 Dare we think about how open Joe is....Now lets think about who has the better right hand Hopkins or Pavlik? Suddenly this fight is much easier to judge Joe is in for a serious dose of the whiplash treatment