Pavlik-his most dangerous middle w foe?

Possibly. I'm certainly having a punt on Gevor at 3/1. I think they are ridiculous odds.

Sturm has struggled with lesser fighters. Gevor is a tough guy, not a huge puncher but enough to dent Sturm, and he puts on a lot of pressure. He's not the guy that is going to stand there and box with a good boxer like Sturm, that is just what he wants. He will try to make it hell. Can't see it being an easy night for Sturm.

 

I think the poster formerly known as Thunder is picking Gevor.....

 

mundine would be a tough fight for pavlik IMO, although i would still expect kelly to win by late tko

also, i am surprised nobody has mentioned winky yet...

 

Pavlik tried to get Winky a dozen times. In fact Top Rank was talking to Winky before they talked to Williams before the Bhop fight. Winky turned down $1.4 million, a cut of the PPV revenue, and a shot at the true middleweight championship. Now that he lost to Williams I doubt if he'll ever get another offer. He'd probably have to become the mandatory, and I don't see Winky taking that route.

 

The inactive guy that kept pricing himself out of fights BEFORE losing to Paul Williams?

 

I just want Pavlik to finally fight Abraham BADLY, so all that **** comes back biting the clowns in the ass. We just won't see it ever since Pavlik will fight a few fights against overmatched undersized non-competition and then fade away to the rehab.

 

Jeezus.

 

Each one of these guys presents a unique set of challenges the other has not dealt with. Pavlik normally beats seven shades of **** out of short power punchers, but he hasn't faced one as durable or as defensively adequate as Abraham. Arthur has never faced a tall, heavy handed, high work rate, long armed guy like KP. Arthur did fight Ikeke, but the similarities between Pavlik and Ikeke start AND stop at being tall. Other than Ikeke, Simon and Oral are the only opponents over 6 foot Arthur as faced, and those guys were club fighters at best.

Many of those who predict a Pavlik win predict a win by decision. I disagree. Both of these guys are very good at what they do, and what they do is leave the vast majority of their opponents slumped in a heap on the canvass. I would be surprised to see this go a full 12 rounds, and KP has a higher KO ratio against better opposition. Miranda hurt Arthur BAD. Kelly would have finished him in that 4th round.

Arthur is tough, but tough ain't enough. He has numerous bad habits that Pavlik will make him pay for. He throws a lot of wide looping shots that will not reach Pavlik and will leave him wide open to a jab-right hand that comes right down the pipe. He also has a bad habit of lunging in with his head and shoulders sticking way out past his feet. He drops his left every time he throws a hook, and he paws with his jab. If he does those things against Pavlik, his corner will have to gather his head up out of the front row.

Pavlik is a stalker who applies constant pressure. His methodology is simple. Stalk 'em, stun 'em, put 'em on the ropes and unleash hell. One thing I noticed about Arthur is that the slightest amount of pressure sends him to the ropes or a corner. Several of his opponents had him on the ropes, and just let him go because they could not engage without getting in range to be countered. That will not be the case with Pavlik who has a 3" reach advantage. In addition to an over all reach advantage, Kelly has relatively long arms, and Arthur has relatively short arms. Kelly normally has to bully guys back to the ropes. Arthur will most likely volunteer to go exactly where Pavlik wants him, and you can't counter what you can't reach.

An opponent MUST NOT let Pavlik trap him on the ropes. Arthur has to do everything he can to keep the fight in the center of the ring. One problem here is that it takes speed and smart movement equal to BHop or Taylor in the rematch to pull that off. Arthur does not have the needed attributes or skills at that level. A second problem is that going to the ropes is what Arthur does naturally. He WANTS to go there. That's a recipe for disaster. In fact, that's where Pavlik's victims go to die.

These frequent comparisons between Abraham's defense and a prime Winky are either pure nuthuggery, or made by people who don't know much about Winky. Winky has ungodly long arms. AA has short arms. Unlike Winky Arthur cannot put on the ear muffs and protect his body at the same time. He has to choose. Pavlik will throw some well placed lead rights and left hooks up under Arthur's respective elbows, and the guard will come down.

In addition, LuJaun Simon thoroughly refuted the myth of Arthur's defense. He broke through AA's guard and snapped his head back with jabs almost routinely. If feather fisted Simon can do that, Pavlik will do it supremely. When the jab starts breaking through Arthur will do what he always does. He'll put his gloves in front of his face palms inward, and Pavlik will nail his ass to the wall with long left hooks, and right crosses that come around the guard.

Pavlik really needs to watch himself on a couple of his bad habits too. Sometimes when the right hand misses Kelly falls in really bad. When that happens it leaves him way out of position and off balance. That's a perfect time for AA to exlpode without notice. However, if he catches Kelly with one of those near-perfect right hands he occasionally launches, he must not get sloppy with the follow up. If he does, Kelly will make him pay for it. Or, at the very least, survive and recuperate. Arthur's finishing style is very wild and sloppy, so it is highly unlikely that it will work against Pavlik.

Finally, Pav should probably avoid his normal bully routine. Kelly does not mind takin' an ass whoopin'. He's perfectly willing to throw defense out the window so that he can keep throwing punches and bully his opponent into the position he wants him in. That's probably not the best way to approach Arthur. Kelly probably needs to slow down a little, focus less on work rate, and more on defense and accuracy.

I could say a lot more about these two, but this post is already to long. Inside 8 rounds Pavlik will put Arthur on the ropes, and suck the life out of him. Pavlik KO8 Abraham.

 

Good post Boo. :good

 

Now let's switch off Fantasy TV and go to the boxing coverage:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yuf446eC5c&feature=related

ORAL was landing basically at will while Abraham was resting, literally ignoring that. Simon landed TWO bigger punches and rarely an occasional jab (see the other clips to see that), so much to "routinely" breaking that guard. It's safe to assume that Abraham would be a little more concerned about getting hit when he is in with Pavlik, same way as he dodged way more when fighting Miranda with a broken jaws and couldn't afford getting hit at all.

Nobody is claiming that Abraham walks through Pavlik like through Ayala or Oral. But the **** how Pavlik would "easily" walk through everyone this side of Dodge to utterly, totally destroy them, without breaking a sweat, and how for that reason Abraham totally ducked him, Zuniga and Ricky Hatton, is getting on my nerves. Abraham is fighting Taylor, and that will show EXACTLY how he deals with a technically superior fighter. If Pavlik really wants to show how he easily "dismantles" Abraham, he just has to go up again like vs. Hopkins and PROVE it. Everything else to that point is garbage and fan talk.

 

Speaking of switching off the fantasy, how about you switch off this fantasy you've got going about Abraham's illustrious career? AA could have fought Jermain a long time ago. Instead Sauerland set up a match with Sebastian Demers. Abraham should have fought Zuniga who vacated his IBO SMW title for the shot. Instead Sauerland gave the fight to Elvin Ayala. Abraham could have fought Winky Wright. Winky wanted it, and HBO was interested. Sauerland low balled Winky, and set up a fight with LuJaun Simon. Sauerland never negotiated seriously for a Pavlik fight. Instead he set up a fight with Taylor, a man who has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. Sauerland/Abraham take the easier, softer route everytime out. Abraham's title reign is nothing more than a carefully crafted marketing gimmick.

 

Sturm, Gevor, Williams

I'm very very excited about the Sturm - Gevor fight next weekend. Gevor is a real challenge, a real threat to Sturm. Many people overseas don't know Gevor, but this guy can box. This is going to be the most difficult fight in Sturm's career as a boxer.

 

:-(

The marketing gag would've knocked your fav boxer out. You'll be very surprised if the SMW tournament is going to happen.

 

There's some Gevor stuff on You Tube, but that's all I've seen. He might have beat AA if he had any power. If he beats Sturm, other than the WBA title changing hands, how do you think that will effect the division?

 

Sadly, I think it won't effect the division at all. I don't know if Gevor would fight Pavlik and I don't have any updates on Pavlik fighting Sturm in autumn.
At least these guys, no matter who wins on Saturday, would give Pavlik a good fight. I don't believe they could win against him, but they would definitely be good oppositions and try their best. Both are far better than Rubio, Mora, they are also better than Miranda.