I don't think so. Joe Calzaghe would outbox Pavlik to a unnamious decision, and what shots Calzaghe does get hit with, don't hurt him too much. He could take Kessler's bombs, and the knockdown in Hopkins was more a balance issue.
Pavlik by tko, or even by points. Calzaghe's too old, past his prime, relies on fighting boxers with a much lower punch output to win points decisions. Pavlik is his worst nightmare: equal punch output, plus devastating power. To outpoint Pavlik Calzaghe will have to throw a huge number of punches, and in doing so will leave himself exposed to counters. He will get caught eventually. Prime for prime: Calzaghe by UD. Today: Pavlik by tko.
Pavlik by stoppage around 7th round after a war. Calzaghe had trouble with Kessler's straight shots and his power in the early-mid rounds before he adapted. I see Pavlik as being more robust, more direct, more relentless and more destructive than Kessler. He would keep coming forward and keep firing those straight shots at Calzaghe, pressuring him til Joe gets tired and as soon as those shots start to get through, the end is near. I don't think Joe has ever had a very good chin, Pavlik would break through and stop him. Will be a great fight tho, and Joe will have his moments with some quick flurries.
Calzaghe wide UD and 1000 threads the following morning saying Pavlik was a hype job as he becomes America's next Jeff Lacy
It's so very very naive to trot out a line like 'You don't think Joe has ever had a good chin? That's simply false - 3 flash knockdowns in 40-odd fights and never particularly shaken after any of them' - who has he fought?? I say 3 better-than-average fighters in his entire career, and 1 of them did knock him down. And Joe was definitely hurt, you could tell he was struggling to regain his senses, if Hopkins had more energy he could've stopped Joe before he recovered fully. And being knocked down by guys of the level of Byron Mitchell and Kabary Salem (12 KOs in 23 wins) most definitely is not evidence of a good chin. Joe is 36, Pavlik is in his mid 20s. He has to get tired one day, and Pavlik will be relentlessly stalking him down. Age can sneak up on a fighter at any time, even the fittest guys, and usually this leads to them losing to younger guys with less ability but more stamina and workrate. Just ask Hopkins.
Joe in his prime would have lacy'ed pavlik, but now that he is older i think it will be a close fight maybe SD
How on earth does a divorce weaken your chin to a punch? That's some weird science. Byron Mitchell was a decent- decent not even very good- puncher yes, but I consider Bernard Hopkins and James Toney to have excellent chins- do you think Byron Mitchell could have floored either of them with a sledgehammer? Me neither. We simply must disagree on the Hopkins thing. I think Calzaghe was shaken by it and took time to recover. Hopkins is cautious by nature, I believe he considered going for the kill and only decided not to because he knew that if Joe could avoid getting stopped til he had recovered his senses, then B-Hop at 43 would have used up too much energy and it would come back to haunt him in the later rounds. If Hopkins had been 4 or 5 years younger he would've gone for the kill and then if he managed it or not, he wouldn't have had to worry about holding back stamina for later on. I've said it a million times, 3 fights do not eradicate 9 years of doing **** all, so I unlike you are still a critic of Calzaghe. Guys like De La Hoya and Pacquiao squeeze more big fights into a year than Joe Calzaghe has in an entire long career at the top. And by the way, who are these World Champion calibre opponents you are talking about with reference to Calzaghe's chin?? It can't be Lacey as Joe was far too quick for that lumbering one-dimensional banger and never got caught. Kessler caught him a few times granted, but he definitely hurt Joe if not put him down. And Hopkins did floor him and had him wobbling at the end of one of the mid-late rounds before the bell saved Joe. Who are the other 'World Champion Calibre Opponents' you mean????????????
A prime Joe i could see beating Pavlik comfortably and maybe even stopping him. Pavlik is relentless but he is quite basic and not very quick. Yes Joe would get hit occasionally but i think his chin could stand up to it. Joe would comfortably out box him, hitting him with flurries from different angles (let's not forget that Kelly isn't exactly hard to hit) and with Joe's greater power when he was yonger he would eventually wear Pavlik down. However i really don't know if the Joe of today can beat Pavlik. I don't know if his weaker shot's would hold Kelly back, earn Pavlik's respect. Maybe at the start of the fight but at the end? Kelly was walking right through Taylor's shot's toward's the end of their second fight.
Agreed. Joe looked like he had no power left at all v Hopkins, was quite alarming. Joe may build up a points lead, but Pavlik's intensity would grind him down near the end and when Pavlik lands, Calzaghe won't be able to stand up to it.