Pavlik v. Dawson at 168, if both had 6 months to prepare; who wins?

The poll results amaze me

I'd be even more amazed if Pavlik beats any of the top 5 at SMW, nevermind LHW

 

Me too. Pavlik seemed to pick up lots more supporters after Cal/Hop. Well, at least vocal support. Alot of posters with low post counts came out of the woodwork for a bit.

I've been waiting for Miranda and Taylor to have some fights at SMW to get a better picture. I really wanted to see Miranda/Kessler but would like a Taylor/Kesser even more.

 

JC was an A at his best. For most of his career, though, he was a B+ to A-, closer to B+ than A-. For a couple of years, he's been A- moving towards A, I think. His last performance was not much better than B+.

I had Pavlik between B and B+, but closer to B+. For comparison, I have Bute as a solid B, moving towards B+, but much closer to B than B+. You must have me confused with someone else; I never said Pavlik was ever less than a B.:verysad

 

This simplistic outlook betrays your inexperience. Dawson would be classed as a small SMW. Bute, Kessler, Calzaghe are all big SMWs. The fact that Dawson fights at LHW doesn't mean he is bigger than the top SMWs, who happen to be big SMWs. He fights at LHW because he wants to take advantage of his speed advantage (feet and hands). At SMW, that advantage would be smaller, and he doesn't have the power or strength to overpower big SMWs either. So...it makes sense for him to fight at LHW. He could fight at 160 if he really tried, just like Pavlik. His ideal weight, normally, is 168 TOPS. Pavlik is a very big MW. He looks like a skeleton the way he keeps the weight down. He fights at MW because it's there that he has a big power and strength advantage. That advantage, particularly power, would be smaller at SMW.

Dawson is not bigger than Pavlik. Both should really fight at 168. At 168, Pavlik would in fact be bigger and stronger than Pavlik, who would go for speed rather than (inexistent) power. Dawson on the other hand would get bigger to benefit from the extra power, even at the expense of speed.

 

Inexperience? You don't need to patronise me when making your point, mate...

It wasn't supposed to be an indepth analysis. It was a simple comment that I don't see Pavlik beating any of the top 5 SMW's, and that is not even getting into the top 5 LHW's. Perhaps it appeared simplistic because it was supposed to be...

And I am quite aware Dawson can make 168. My judgement on Pavlik competing with the guys at SMW/LHW has nothing to do with size, rather the large talent differential

:-(

 

But you never gave him any hope at 168 before. Remember the conversations around the article "It's time for Taylor/Pavlik to step UP to Bute"?? But if Arum's off the cuff comment about Pavlik making a statment before he left 160 in January holds, we don't have long to wait before we don't have to speculate.

What is you take on the take on Mundine moving down now that Taylor, Miranda and soon Pavlik, will all be at 168? If he could make weight now, he could have done it before. If he thought he couldn't take 168 from Kessler/Cal, but thought 160 was 'easy' then why didn't he make some fights at 160 before now? Where do you have Mundine at 168?

 

I'm not quite sure how Decebel has gone from not giving Pavlik a prayer at SMW to summising that he beats a top LHW :huh

 

He doesn't have much of a chance against the top guys at 168, PARTICULARLY if he climbed in a couple of months, as he was supposed to do against Calzaghe. In 3 months, he wouldn't be able to bulk up properly; he'd either come in fat or he'd come in a lot lighter than the big SMWs...THAT's what I was arguing. YOU were arguing that he's a very big SMW who would have no problem fighting the big SMWs at SMW, if he wanted to. THAT'S WRONG! He would need time to bulk up; he couldn't make that move from one fight to the next. At least 6 months would be required. That's why he won't fight Calzaghe unless Calzaghe waited for him, which he cannot do, because he's retiring.

 

That is what I took from this.

edit. Misread your post.

 

For the following reasons:

1. Dawson doesn't take advantage of fighting at LHW, weight-wise; he comes in under, by quite a lot. Even big SMWs outweigh him on the night!

2. Pavlik would have enough time to build up properly to 168, so he wouldn't be smaller than Dawson.

3. Styles make fights. Pavlik has the right style and strengths to take advantage of Dawson's style and strengths

4. Dawson is only a top LHW because the division is weak. The former B+/A-/A guys are OLD, way over the hill, and none of the prime guys (e.g. Diaconu) are more than B level.

Clear enough, buddy?

Not enough just to

1. look up boxrec and say: ah...Dawson fights at LHW and Pavlik at MW...so Dawson is MUCH bigger.

2. listen to Amsterdam et al who overrated Dawson a lot, like most of us, and who underrated Pavlik IN COMPARISON TO THE TOP SMWs, especially Calzaghe, who has a big style advantage over him

to draw the conclusion that Dawson would be bound to beat Pavlik.

It's not by any means as simple as that...

When comparing Pavlik to Calzaghe, for example, Amsterdam would think like this:

1. Pavlik is smaller. He wouldn't have enough time to build up to a big SMW, in between fights

2. Calzaghe is better, overall, in absolute terms.

3. Calzaghe has a big style advantage over Pavlik

CORRECT CONCLUSION: Pavlik is ****ed!

This is how it works.

But that doesn't mean that Dawson would beat Pavlik if Pavlik had time to build up to a proper SMW, if the fight took place at 168 ( i.e. Dawson wouldn't bulk up for it, but would stay the same).

 

Making things up to suit your argument is not usually your style...

A lot of that was pointless dribble. The point is you think Pavlik has a stylistic advantage over Dawson, presumably based upon the fact he struggled against Johnson. I don't agree

Johnson and Pavlik are very different. I don't see Pavlik just walking forward and eating the crisp counters Johnson took. His defence is worse than Johnson's too, those counters are definitely going to slow him down, and make him think twice about plodding forward...

Pavlik has to walk forward too. He can't win from range, Dawson will easily outbox him with superior handspeed, jab, footwork, pretty much every technical aspect of the sport you can think of...

I just see Dawson as holding all the aces. If Pavlik really wants to press the issue he'll eat a whole lot of leather, and it WILL hurt him. If not, Dawson can comfortably outpoint him

 

You're overreaching.

 

So...brooklyn1550, why would Dawson beat Pavlik at 168, if Pavlik had the time to build up to the weight?

 

I think I was making the time to bulk up before you, but I'm not going to try and dig old posts to prove that point. But, you are looking at someone that wants to end his career as a heavy. I'm not sure how much time it will take him to bulk up. He has to have an insane work ethic to make 160 now.

 

He wouldn't build (rather than "bulk") up to 168 unless he was moving up for good. If he fought Calzaghe now, it would be as a one off, so he'd come in much lighter than Calzaghe. If he fought Dawson at 168, he'd build up for good, so he'd come in big and strong.