Pavlik v. Dawson at 168, if both had 6 months to prepare; who wins?

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by Decebal, Apr 25, 2008.


  1. Decebal

    Decebal Lucian Bute Full Member

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    I AM a Dawson fan, but I was overrating him a lot, based on his performance against an Adamek who had a bad night and showed him too much respect. Dawson ain't no A- level fighter! Not even Calzaghe is A- based on his last performance. Dawson is B+, overall, at best. No more. Even Kessler is better overall. Dawson doesn't hit a lot harder than Taylor, no. In any case, this is not about Taylor. It's about Pavlik, who hits harder than both, even at 160. Dawson is effective not because of his power, but because of his speed, accuracy and flurried combinations. It is essential that people understand that. Pavlik is solid enough to take Dawson's best punch/punch combo, but Dawson couldn't take that right landing flush on his jaw. Dawson would outbox Pavlik for a couple of rounds, tire and then get pushed back by the stronger more aggressive man. He'd get cut up by that right. He would definitely get pushed against the ropes in the mid rounds and get nailed. If he tries to come forward and have it out, he wouldn't win a brawl. He just doesn't have enough power and his head movement is even worse than Pavlik's. Pavlik's chin is solid. He wouldn't fight going backwards, but forwards, behind that jab. Comparing Dawson and Taylor is a silly thing to do - they don't have the same styles. Taylor's style is better suited to beating Pavlik than Dawson's, because Taylor is a much better brawler and because of the way he comes in with that loopy right. Inside, he's better than Dawson too. Much better. Do Bute and Dawson have the same style?? Does Bute have Dawson's chin? Does Bute fight the wrong gameplan? Does he lose the plot? Does he get almost KTFO every time he fights? Come on! No need to bring Bute into this - different styles, different strengths.

    So your argument is based on transitivity arguments that don't apply, using wrong assumptions: Dawson's power is better than Taylor and Taylor almost KTFO Pavlik, so Dawson KTFO Pavlik! Ridiculous!!!

    Not only have you assumed the wrong things, but you've forgotten the first rule of analysis - styles make fights.

    Then, you've thrown in some more red herrings e.g. Bute....

    I'm not impressed, huki...you can do better than that!:good

    And you're overrating Dawson so much that I'm starting to put you in with Pimp C in the nuthugger category.
     
  2. C Money

    C Money Paul McCloskey Full Member

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    Them JC shades are cool!!:cool:

    But they might be shading you're vision here:yep

    Pavlik's better than Dawson:good
     
  3. Decebal

    Decebal Lucian Bute Full Member

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    This is such an easy pick! It's like picking Calzaghe over Lacy!
     
  4. Ring Master

    Ring Master The Originator Full Member

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  5. huki

    huki huk huk ^_^;; Full Member

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    Dawson is A- level to me, Kessler is A. But that all depends on how strict you are with ratings. All I can say is if Dawson is B+, Pavlik is B-.

    Taylor's style is not better suited for Pavlik than Dawson's. He's not much of a brawler and his work on the inside didn't matter a whole lot. I mentioned the Taylor fights because of the success Taylor had when he fought on the outside and showed a jab with okay movement. Dawson's movement is much superior, he is larger, he punches harder, and his punches are quicker/more accurate/less predictable. Plus, he has better stamina and punch output. That's why he would have success against Pavlik. Dawson would be able to take a Pavlik right to the chin, just like Taylor was able to take it in the rematch when he had to (who's chin is far from great). Why do you mention Dawson's chin, but fail to mention Pavlik's chin at a lower weight class? In the first Taylor fight, Pavlik was hurt much worse than Dawson ever was in his career.

    It is not logical to think that Pavlik will walk through Dawson's punches with his **** defense, no size advantage, and shaky chin. You're also assuming that Pavlik will be the same fighter with the same advantages he had at 168 or higher. His punching power, which isn't great will most likely be worse and his speed will be slightly worse also.

    Ignore the Bute comment, I didn't explain that and it has to do with you overrating Pavlik. But I don't want to get into that.

    I don't know why you're acting like it's such an easy pick. Is it that hard to see Dawson outboxing Pavlik and making him get his respect, backing him up and stunning him at many points of the fight? You're basing how this fight would go on how the Johnson fight went, which isn't right. Pavlik is no Glen Johnson. I believe Dawson learned things in the Johnson fight and will improve also, but I'm not gonna argue that right now. Pavlik will never improve much IMO and will become significantly worse when he moves up. Comparing this to a fight like Calzaghe-Lacy, where one fighter has a huge styles advantage and is overall a much better fighter is silly. I doubt a lot of the top fight pickers would be picking Pavlik, because most people that know boxing well have a pretty low opinion of Pavlik when it comes to matching him up with elite fighters.
     
  6. Decebal

    Decebal Lucian Bute Full Member

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    Nothing to do with Glen Johnson; not sure why you keep bringing that up. Completely different styles.

    Pavlik's a good finisher. He WOULD stun Dawson, eventually. That is inevitable. Then, he'd push him back and nail him. NAIL HIM.

    Pavlik is a very efficient puncher. His punching is based on technique. He would be an even bigger puncher at a higher weight. And Pavlik doesn't have a shaky chin. If he has a shaky chin, so does Bika, etc.

    Ridiculous! Dawson would have to swing for the fences to hurt Pavlik. He'd get nailed badly in the process.

    Easy pick. You're either having a laugh or you've let the hype get to you.

    Dawson has some significant weaknesses which cannot be overlooked. Pavlik has the right strengths to take advantage and not to succumb to Dawson's strengths. As simple as that.
     
  7. huki

    huki huk huk ^_^;; Full Member

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    He doesn't have a shaky chin? :lol: Come on..

    Why would he be a bigger puncher at a higher weight? Dawson has weaknesses, but Pavlik has even more and Dawson's style would give him huge problems. Thinking Pavlik would run through him and stop him in the mid-rounds is overrating Pavlik's abilities and underating Dawson's greatly IMO.

    I would be very surprised if posters like Brooklyn, Amsterdam, and kg picked Pavlik to get an easy win.
     
  8. booradley

    booradley Mean People Kick Ass! Full Member

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    I was reading one of Huki's posts, and as soon as I read "shakey chin" I lost all interest and stopped reading. Guys with shakey chins don't get back up at the count of 2, and proceed to dominate their opponent.
     
  9. PH|LLA

    PH|LLA VIP Member Full Member

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    this is actually a very close and exciting matchup



    Dawson by close UD.

    btw i started a poll a few months ago asking who was better between Pavlik and Dawson, and 80% voted Dawson.
     
  10. huki

    huki huk huk ^_^;; Full Member

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    And guys that don't have shaky chins don't even get hurt badly against average punchers and get put into situations where they have to get up and win dramatically. Pavlik has a shaky chin, it's a fact.

    I would be willing to make a one year avatar bet with anyone if Dawson-Pavlik is made.

    Moron.. :lol: Keep living in a fantasy world where Montreal fighters can beat anybody instead of analyzing boxing with logic.
     
  11. booradley

    booradley Mean People Kick Ass! Full Member

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    I disagree with you on the outcome, but I definietly agree that this would be good match making. I think the poll is about right; 60/40 in favor of Pavlik.
     
  12. Hermit

    Hermit Loyal Member banned

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    I think you just broke my jaw by having it hit the floor dude.......
     
  13. Paulie

    Paulie Well-Known Member Full Member

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  14. TFFP

    TFFP Guest

    Are you sure Bute couldn't win this fight? :huh

    In theory he could jump in and KTFO out of them with a steel chair, WWE style
     
  15. slicksouthpaw16

    slicksouthpaw16 Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Chad Dawson by the most masterful performance in recent memory, him scoring a late stoppage is also not out of the question. He would slip those slow telegraph left jabs and keep the fight on the outside, the way Taylor did on the rematch. When you keep Pavlik in the center of the ring and box, then he is completely nullified because his game consist on backing his opponents onto the ropes. Pavlik gets most of his knockouts when his opponent lays on the ropes and Dawson never does this. He is a masterful pure boxer with great handspeed and footwork, When he fought Johnson, he fought on the inside and gave Johnson his chances to win the fight. I am very sure that he learned from his miskates and will continue to use his height and reach advantages.