PAVLIK vs. ABRAHAM pushed back yet again, most likely off

In the last few days the chances of seeing the ONLY MW fight that matters (and one of the Top 5 fights fans are getting really excited about) dropped dramatically.

Top Rank: Several rumors point out that Bob Arum is going to the safer way, and being a lucky man, there's gonna be a new HBO fighter in the MW division shortly. Until then, Kelly has to face his mandatory in Rubio, which will happen in February (but not yet official). At this time, Pavlik being quite easy to hit and Abraham being the deadliest puncher out there, no matter of the financial part of the deal, King Arthur offers too much danger both for short and long term.

Paul Williams: He's the new American name HBO is building up, busy, exciting, powerful and tall, who can be the next multi-divisional champion. He'll have his 160 debut vs. Winky Wright in March 14, and the winner (if Winky in shape, it's a tough one to call) will have his shot vs. Pavlik probably in the Summer months.

Kelly Pavlik: coming back from the shutout defeat vs. Hopkins at 170, of course he'll start vs. a lower caliber opponent, which is understandable after the top opposition he faced in the last 2 years. He always said he's very interested in unification and would fight anyone including Abraham, although lately it seems he's much more interested in Williams, whom he almost fought instead of Hopkins.

HBO: with Time Warner only interested in ratings, HBO is always looking for fighters who can get the viewers' attention. Abraham has been on their radar for over a year now, and his US debut on Showtime was a KO success. Notice that the commentators mentioned Abraham's name at least 20 times during 2008, which is a clear sign of interest in network television. Of course with Williams-Pavlik now being a strong possibility, going after the two American fighters makes more sense from a rating standpoint, also, it's 100% that the winner will be American, maybe the next PPV star, so the Abraham fight is seemingly out of the picture unfortunately.

Arthur Abraham: definitely looking for more US fights, not just one, but many appearances in the States, with Pavlik being his no1 target. Big problem is making 160, which is extremely difficult for him nowadays, and no way he'll stay at MW for another year - I predict two more fights with or without Kelly.

Sauerland Event: Definitely interested in Abraham's US career, also in a Sturm fight. Can be difficult to negotiate with, but the Miranda deal was made easily, which is a good sign. For Pavlik-Abraham, Tok Rank/HBO has to offer a reasonable amout of money, but we're not speaking about several millions.



Why it has to happen: Most definitely the only fight that matters at 160, and fans across the world are very interested in it, and I'm talking about dozens of TV stations buying the broadcast over the world. It is really that big. Other than the public demand, HBO still wouldn't rule this fight out, just has a better option for long term. Chances it'll happen: 33%

Why it won't happen: Several reasons. Arum is taking the safer path (especially after all Kelly's weaknesses became very evident). HBO prefers the national fight over the international (with both Williams and Winky being HBO fighters). Abraham won't wait for another year, simply can't, and there are several options at 168 inlc. Kessler, Bute, Inkin, maybe Froch in Europe or even a US career with all the American names in the division. Chances we'll see Abraham on HBO: 50%. Chances Pavlik-Abraham won't happen: 66%



So, what do you think? Can the HUGE public demand make this fight a reality, pretty much like in the case of PacMan-Marquez II, or boxing politics will ignore this superb fight?

 

I know. But the chances dropped anyway with Williams facing Winky at 160 and looking for Kelly - and the two almost fought each other a while ago. Also, no news of an Abraham HBO debut. Fighting on the Pavlik undercard in a regular HBO WCB would make sense if you ask me.