Pavlik vs Calzaghe analysis

I think Calzaghe will give Pavlik fits on the inside. In a few fights that I've seen that an opponent opens up and throws flurries/combinations, Pavlik, covers up, is like a deer caught in headlights, and doesn't try to counter. Pavlik needs to be set, and have his opponent in perfect distance for Pavlik to land anything meaningful. Pavlik is a 1-2 fighter, and his most effective punch other than his jab, is his follow up right hand. Pavlik rarely lands the right hand without throwing his jab first. If Pavlik's jab isn't fast enough to pop Calzaghe, Pavlik's right hand will hit air all night long. And that's what I expect to happen.

Kelly Pavlik is extremely predictable, and Taylor showed this in the rematch, above all, avoiding Pavlik's right hand (for the most part). Pavlik was grinding, and only punching when Taylor wasn't - I know that sounds cliche, but it fits into my opening statement about Pavlik not being able to trade/counter effectively whilst his opponent is on the attack, or mounting pressure. This is noticeable in both of his fights with Taylor. Pavlik is too slow, and looping with his left hook i.e. a few times he was countered by Taylor in the rematch. Pavlik lacks punch creativity, and came up the ranks relying solely on his jab-right hand....Which always got the job done, but in the rematch with Taylor, Jermain, having already seen him once, knew all he had to do was avoid the big right. This left Kelly a basic fighter, needing to grind to get the win, whereas if he were to mix it up, I'm certain he would have gotten Jermain out of there before the bell sounded to end the fight. He didn't/doesn't mix it up, and I doubt he will have that oppurtunity against Calzaghe, who will not stand in front of Pavlik, and will not allow Pavlik to control the tempo of the fight.....Joe will look to offset Kelly, and make him uncomfortable with his angles and pressure.......

When the fight is on the inside, I feel Calzaghe will do some holding and hitting - and he might take Pavlik out of his game and get him frustrated.

All in all, I don't think Pavlik will be able to cope with Calzaghe's experience, ring intelligence, angles........And the key to the fight imo - Calzaghe's inside game and his ability to smother Pavlik's long punches.

 

OK - fair enough... boxing is all about opinions I guess. I disagree of course, especially about the power issue. I think Pavlik has a very good dig for a Middleweight but will not carry that through to 168 for a while. Joe's chin is proven. Though put down by Hopkins, it was one minute into the fight and off balance against a guy who thrives on such opportunities. Pavlik tries to engineer his own openings and doesn't look for opponents mistakes. I just don't think that KP has enough dimensions to his game yet to get through 12 rounds with such an experienced busy wily old veteran. Joe's defence is sound enough to stay away from a sustained attack.

 

This is an excellent post.

 

Robin Reid

 

Joe was being tagged by single shots all through that fight. I don't think Reid was being beaten up at all. It was a close fight, a definite Calzaghe win, but Reid won a lot of rounds, and hit Joe repeatedly with the right hand all through the night.

 

Calzaghe would UD this if Arum can make it happen, but if there was a KO, it's Pavlik. And if a KO happened, it would be in the opening four rounds where Joe has always been his most vunerable. That's Pavlik's only hope to a win.

 

Of course, if Pavlik pulled a KO or TKO of Calzaghe inside four rounds, how huge would the Ghost become to boxing?

 

i dont think this is an easy fight to predict and nobody should be 100% confident in their man. both are top flight fighters with a very stange style mix. Id have to give calzaghe the very slight edge right now due to his experience, herky-jerky style, output, and chin. I just think Pavlik would have a hard time landing that big right hand consistently. He lacks that power left hook to keep Clazaghe honest.

calzaghe by narrow pts.

 

Calzaghe would be too strong for Pavlik. It's a great fight probably. I was surprised that Hopkins was able to floor Calzaghe, so Pavlik might be able to hurt him. Taylor had Pavlik in deep trouble though, so Calzaghe would probably put him in deeper trouble.

 

True though the double jab might cut some of the opportunities to counter. Problem with Pavlik is he doesn't vary his speed and placement much which would make it easier for Calzaghe to time it and counter.

Pretty much the scenario of the Kessler fight.

One thing though is Calzaghe cannot let Pavlik back him up against the ropes.

 

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Can't see Joe being tagged this many times but the rest of the video is failry accurate.