Fair enough, I'm not a Pavlik nuthugger, but I do like the guys personality, and he has one hell of a heart and punch, he really can be a big star with the right people behind him.
Watch that fight again he does not need the full 8, he gets up almost immediatley after taking many flush shots.
Calzaghe will be a slight favourite, closer than it should be. However, a lot of people are buying into Pavlik, and the bookies will protect their assets.
Pavlik was up by the count of 2 or 3, he didn't need the full 8 to get up from the Taylor KD. Pavlik has bad balance and chicken legs but his chin is rock solid. [yt]YvYjXJmidSI[/yt] he takes 4 flush shots, after having taken a couple more in the sequence prior, and then gets right up.
Zag is the LHW Champion of the World, he should be the betting favorite. Doesn't mean I'll be betting on him though.
I think you analysis is way off. Joe Calzaghe would most likely box his way to a close SD victory over Pavlik, but I could see the decision going the other way. Joe Calzaghe doesn't get hit enough to be knocked out, and is far more experianced than anybody Pavlik has ever fought. That coupled with the fact Joe Calzaghe's prime weight is super-middle, and he possess faster hands than Pavlik, I would say you're stretching to predict a KO for the Ghost.
Yeah, but Pav has ALWAYS been the under dog, in every "Big" fight he's come to. And he's never lost either. So I like that formula.
pavliks power is quite a bit stronger than hopkins. They are both orthodox that fight with a big right hand. only difference pavlik will throw three times as many punches as hopkins did. Granted pavliks accuracy is not what hopkins is but he would still land more and they would be severe to calzaghe. Pavlik by brutal KO
Its completely different. Calzaghe is open to counter-punches because of the way he throws his punches. Hopkins was able to take advantage of that. Pavlik doesn't have the ring smarts, accuracy, and timing to land the kind of punches Hopkins was landing. Pavlik is a "get off first" type of fighter, and Calzaghe thrives on these guys.